OSCAR speculation

Russell Crowe A Beautiful Mind	Sean Penn I am Sam	Will Smith Ali	Denzel Washington Training Day	Tom Wilkinson In the Bedroom

1 Oscar (00) 3 Time Nominee	3 Time Nominee	1st Time	1 Oscar (89) 5 Time Nominee	1st Time
Precursor: BAFTA, BC, SAG, & GG win. AFI nom. Role: John Nash, schizophrenic math genius with loving wife.	Precursor: BFC & SAG noms. Role: Sam, a mentally disabled single father struggling to keep his child.	Precursor: Globe & BFC noms. Role: Muhammad Ali, 'The Greatest' boxing legend and civil rights magnet.	Precursor: AFI, LAFCA & BSFC wins. Globe nom. Role: Alonzo Harris (his first bad guy) a rogue charismatic cop.	Precursor: NYFCC Win. AFI & SAG & BAFTA noms. Role: Matt Fowler, distressed husband and mourning avenging father.
Celebrity or Critical Endorsements
	Jodie Foster, Michelle Pfeiffer		Will Smith, Julia Roberts, Spike Lee, Mel Gibson
The Film Clip Suggestions
Nash's breakdown with his doctor while his wife sits in.	Sam confused about lying versus "tweaking"	Opening Sequence -The shouting and bravado to the press.	"King Kong ain't got shit on me"	The tour of his son's room.
How'd they get nominated?
32 % Prime Oscar bait hooks; disability, accent, triumph of spirit. 23 % Superstardom. He'll get nominated for anything now. 20 % Showiness of performance. 15 % Lead role in frontrunner film. 10 % Last year's winner.	75 % Mental retardation is to the Best Actor statuette what prostitution is to the Best Actress: Nominations don't come any easier. 20% Intense love from other actors. 3 % Performance. 2 % Guilt factor. This is only his 3rd Oscar nom?	46 % The role itself. Before the first day of shooting this was a likely Oscar nod. 25 % Superstardom. They like to reward box office giants when given the opportunity. 15% Surprise attack -they didn't expect him to be this good. 11 % Performance.	40 % Performance. 25 % They like the big 'movie stars' -especially in this category. 20% Surprise attack -they didn't expect him to play a villian. 15 % Guilt factor. AMPAS owes him big time. Malcolm X should have won him the statuette.	60% The Performance. It's a thing of beauty. 18 % Prestige 'Brit' factor and a little Spacek bleedover glow for bonus boost. 16 % Miramax backed campaign. 4 % Hey, isn't that the guy from the Full Monty! 2 % Accent!
How'd I do?
I scored 4/5 here. I thought in 2002 'who would fall for the tried and true "look I'm a retard!" act...?'-but apparently the Academy would. Again. I thought after the SAG nomination that Kline might resurface due to actorly love headed his way. But I was wrong. See the FiLM BiTCH Awards for my personal choices. Oh an interesting note: This category was my best in my annual April Fools prediction article. I predicted 3/5 in this category waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay back on 4/1/01.
Who Got Robbed?
Easy. That would be Billy Bob Thornton's hynoptic Man Who Wasn't There work. Ewan MacGregor's sensational Moulin star turn . John Cameron Mitchell -the other great musical performance of the year...and of course little Haley Joel Osment's miraculous film-saving star turn in A.I.
Who Might Think About Writing a Speech?
The Academy is going to go with Crowe if A Beautiful Mind sweeps (for a repeat) but my current bet/hope is that they go with Denzel since they'll owe him for time and all eternity for his Malcolm X loss years ago.
*Who Should* Win**
Tom Wilkinson gave one of the year's best performances in any category as the grieving father in In the Bedroom. He was superb and deserving of Hollywood's highest honor.

If you want to laugh at me -look back at the predictions .