TM

Awards Pages Index *
History of Oscar 2001

Pre Nomination Articles:
Holding Patterns -The Buzz / NBR / God I love This Town: NYFCC Pick / Boston & LA / Globe-a-thon / Golden Globe Analysis / Is Best Actress "Lock"ing Up? / Spotlight on Best Pic / The Eve of Balloting /
Pic /Dir / Screenplays / Tech Categories / Actress / Actor / Animated / Supp Actor / Supp Actress / Foreign / Guest Article: Boyfriend Thinks I'm Crazy / Final Nomination Predictions: Curse of the Vote Split
Post Nominations through Post Ceremony Articles:
Pic /Dir / Screenplays / Tech Categories / Actress / Actor / Animated / Supp Actor / Supp Actress / Foreign /
King Kong: The Actor's Race / The Moulin Rouge! Experience/ DGA & SAG / Which Year is it Again? / Oscar Diary 1: March 16-19 / Oscar Diary 2: March 20-22 / Final Oscar Diary March 23-25 / Oscar Night Review

Oscar Speculation 2001
Final Best Actor Predictions
Updated 2/09/02


Also: Picture /Director / Screenplays / Technical Categories / Actress / Actor / Supporting Actor / Supporting Actress / Foreign Film

 
 

Best Actor
Green: Locks. Yellow: Makes sense. Blue: Vulnerable? Orange: Strongest Challenger

Precursor Awards: Euro: Kingsley NBR: Thornton New York: Wilkinson LA: Washington Boston Washington/Cox San Diego: Pearce Toronto: Harris Florida: Thornton Southeast: Thornton Texas: Crowe AFI: Washington Las Vegas: Pearce NSFC: Hackman Globes: Crowe/Hackman Satellites: Cox / MacGregor

The 5 Predicted Nominees (?) * Comments
After SAG nothing looks stable anymore...See FiLM BiTCH Awards for my personal ballot.
Russell Crowe
A Beautiful Mind
Kevin Kline
Life as a House
Will Smith
Ali
Denzel Washington
Training Day
Tom Wilkinson
In the Bedroom
Precursor:
AFI, & BAFTA noms. BFC & Globe win.
Precursor:
SAG nomination.
Precursor:
Globe & BFC nom.
Precursor:
AFI, LAFCA & BSFC wins. Globe nom.
Precursor:
NYFCC Awards. AFI & SAG & BAFTA noms.
Final Thought:
 Sadly -it's a lock. I like Crowe but ( like last year) this is not great work.
Final Thought:
 SAG revived him. And he is well loved. He could just slip in to the five.
Final Thought:
 Could fall due to the reception of the film. But I'm guessing 'the champ' slips in.
Final Thought:
 The question is will Oscar go for Crowe two times in a row or give Denzel another?
Final Thought:
 I'm not 100% positive he'll make it but there are good precursor omens.
Strengths:
The gladiator is back to what he should always do -challenging acting.
Weak spot:
Directed by Ron Howard -so the edges got smoothed over. It's not Crowe's best work.
Strengths:
Even though Life as a House was not a hit -his perf was for a lot of people. Actors have always loved him.
Weak spot:
The SAG nominating committee is the only precursor and their voting body is not the same as the Academy's.
Strengths:
A big film. A big role. A big biopic and (surprise!) he's sensational in the part.
Weak spot:
As "The Greatest" he had his work cut out for him and not everyone shares my opinion of his dynamic performance.
Strengths:
He netted the best reviews he's had in some time. Given the recent AFI win and the fact that he hasn't been nominated in a while it seems like a lock.
Weak spot:
It doesn't seem like an Oscar vehicle.
Strengths: Outstanding in the film. (Better than Spacek.)
Weak spot:
May suffer similar fate to Mark Ruffalo last year. He's far less famous than his co-stars. Great performances don't always net nominations.
2 Alternates
Gene Hackman
The Royal Tenenbaums
Sean Penn
I am Sam
Precursor:
Globe nom. AFI and NSFC win.
Precursor:
BFC & SAG nominations.
Final Thought:
 The question is will they go for role or career? It's a toss up. It's him or Will Smith.
Final Thought:
 SAG fell for the oldest award trick in the book. Let's hope Oscar doesn't. It's him or Kline.
Strengths:
Academy loves him. It's a clever star turn...
Weak spot: ...that grows in power with repeat viewing. Do AMPAS members watch those screeners more than once? Comedy doesn't often pay off. AFI win could throw his votes to "supporting"
Strengths:
Everyone respects him as an actor -well maybe not Nicolas Cage.
Weak spot:
The film got terrible reviews. Some AMPAS voters may be too savvy in this age of media scrutiny for the disabled Oscar trick.
3 Long Shots
Kevin Spacey
The Shipping News
Billy Bob Thornton
The Man Who Wasn't There.
Ewan MacGregor
Moulin Rouge!
Precursor:
Globe & BAFTA nominations.
Weak spot:
I can't be the only one tired of his ubiquity? Plus -and I'm being serious here. It's NOT good acting.
Precursor:
AFI & Globe nom. NBR win (shared w/ Monster's Ball)
Weak spot:
Reviews don't earn nominations. The Academy might not go for The Man and the vote split w/ Monsters Ball hurts considering how competitive this is.
Precursor:
Globe nom. Golden Satellite win.
Weak spot:
Hasn't won anything much for this...and the romantic innocent is not a role that's fondly loved by Oscars voters (unless its played by a woman.)

 

Last Minute February Predix
Crowe A Beautiful Mind Kline -Life as a House Washington -Training Day Smith -Ali Wilkinson -In the Bedroom
January Predix
Crowe A Beautiful Mind Hackman -Royal Tenenbaums Thornton -Man Who Wasn't There Washington -Training Day Smith -Ali
Early December Predix
Cruise -Vanilla Sky Thornton -Man Who Wasn't There Crowe A Beautiful Mind Kline -Life as a House Smith -Ali
November Predix
Jim Carrey -The Majestic Russell Crowe A Beautiful Mind Sean Penn -I Am Sam Will Smith -Ali Kevin Spacey -Shipping News
My Fall (2/3rd done mark) Predix
Jim Carrey -The Majestic Russell Crowe A Beautiful Mind Tom Cruise -Vanilla Sky Will Smith -Ali Kevin Spacey -K-Pax
My Summer (1/2 way mark) Predix
Russell Crowe Beautiful Mind Daniel Day-Lewis Gangs of New York Ben Kingsley Sexy Beast Peter O'Toole Final Curtain Will Smith Ali
My Original April Fools Predix
Russell Crowe A Beautiful Mind Daniel Day -Lewis Gangs of New York Jack Nicholson About Schmidt Sean Penn I Am Sam Will Smith Ali

 


Also: Picture /Director / Screenplays / Technical Categories / Actress / Actor /
Supporting Actor / Supporting Actress / Foreign Film