OSCAR speculation

5 Predicted Nominees Comments Kidman is out due to the vote split -DAMN! How disappointing will that be? See the FiLM BiTCH Awards for my personal ballot.
Halle Berry Monster's Ball	Judi Dench Iris	Tilda Swinton The Deep End	Sissy Spacek In the Bedroom	Renée Zelwegger Bridget Jones' Diary
Precursor: AFI, BFC, SAG and Globe noms. NBR Winner.	Precursor: Globe, SAG, & BAFTA noms.	Precursor: BSFC win. Globe nom.	Precursor: Globe, SAG, BFC, AFI, Sundance, NY, and LA wins. (whew)	Precursor: BFC, BAFTA, SAG and Globe noms.
Final Thought: It's all locked up for the beauty queen. But could she upset Spacek's win...?	Final Thought: A lock unless they vote for Shipping News and don't want to vote for her twice.	Final Thought: Vulnerable due to the indie nature of the film and her lower profile.	Final Thought: A lock and looking like the juggernaut landslide winner as well.	Final Thought: Probably just missed last year. Probably won't miss this year due to Bridget.
Strengths: Her spot is secure. She has the advantage of not having given an Oscar caliber turn before. When anyone surprises they have a great shot. Weak spot: Nude scenes don't always thrill Oscar voters and she 's been losing to Spacek a lot.	Strengths: The role is a doozy and she's getting respectful if non enthusiastic reviews for it. The role seems tailor made for a golden boy. Weak spot: Just one week in theaters...little buzz currently. She'll be going on reputation and the screeners.	Strengths: Very strong reviews (often mentioning Oscar) in well regarded indie. Weak spot: I continue to feel that Oscar who usually swarm around sweet and warm might not go for her cool restraint. Small movie indie competition from Channing.	Strengths: The question is -is she this year's Julia (a juggernaut) or is she this year's Ellen (the career topping loser.) Weak spot: Once the AMPAS actually watches this---Well, her character is not as likeable as they like winning roles to be.	Strengths: Great box office returns. Plus the accent! The fact that she is spirited and fun in a field of highly depressed star turns will help her stand out. They owe her. Probable SAG nominee. Weak spot: Comedic work. The earliest release of all viable candidates.

2 Alternates... or maybe I should say one?

Nicole Kidman	Nicole Kidman
The Others	Moulin Rouge!
Final Thought: That damn vote split! Even if she places on every single ballot -that may not be enough... unless the Academy had a clear favorite role -which I don't think they did.
Precursor: Dual Globe nominations and one win. BAFTA nom. "Entertainer of the Year" -EW magazine. Satellite win. Strengths: Nomination or no nomination, 2001 as a film year will be remembered for being hers. She topped her own personal best not once but twice in one year with both The Others and Moulin Rouge! both critically acclaimed. Both hits. Both fueled by her suddenly potent unmistakable starpower. Weak spot: In the history of her career, Satine will be regarded as the true turning point - but the Others was often considered a more technically proficient acting piece. The debate raged for months and no clear winner emerged. So there you go -VOTE SPLIT. Kidman's last minute support for The Others (after her SAG snub) probably came to late to affect the ballots)

5 Long Shots With the possibility of a Vote Split for Kidman -Nearly anything is possible -if not probable.
Naomi Watts Mulholland Drive	Michelle Pfeiffer I am Sam	Cate Blanchett Charlotte Gray	Stockard Channing The Business of Strangers	Audrey Tatou Amélie
Precursor: NSFC winner. AFI nominee. Weak Spot: If AMPAS members can't make it through the whole film they'll miss why the acting is great.	Precursor: None (but the SAG attention to I am Sam means that people are actually watching the film.) Weak Spot: ...not that anyone's talking about her in this film. :(	Precursor: None. (Although the SAG nom for Bandits boosts her visibility) Weak spot: For such an Oscar bait role -there's been absolutely zero attention.	Precursor: AFI nom. Weak spot: We don't know how much influence the AFI will have... and has anyone besides me actually seen it?	Precursor: Euro & BAFTA nominations. Weak spot: As cute as she is it's not a demanding performance. She's more like a mannequin for Jeunet to dress up.

Final Last Minute Predictions
Halle Berry -Monsters Ball * Judi Dench -Iris * Tilda Swinton -The Deep End * Sissy Spacek -In the Bedroom * Renée Zelwegger -Bridget Jones Diary
January Predictions
Halle Berry -Monsters Ball * Judi Dench -Iris * Nicole Kidman -Moulin Rouge * Sissy Spacek -In the Bedroom * Renée Zelwegger -Bridget Jones Diary
Early December Predictions
Halle Berry -Monsters Ball * Cate Blanchett -Charlotte Gray* Judi Dench -Iris * Nicole Kidman -Moulin Rouge * Sissy Spacek -In the Bedroom
My November Predictions
Cate Blanchett -Charlotte Gray* Judi Dench -Iris * Nicole Kidman -Moulin Rouge * Sissy Spacek -In the Bedroom * Stockard Channing -The Deep End
My Fall (2/3rd done mark) Predictions -9/30/01
Cate Blanchett -Charlotte Gray* Judi Dench -Iris * Nicole Kidman -Moulin Rouge * Sissy Spacek -In the Bedroom * Tilda Swinton -The Deep End
My Halfway Mark Predictions -July
Cate Blanchett -Heaven * Jacqueline Bissett -Sleepy Time Gal (still unreleased) * Meryl Streep-The Hours (delayed a year.) * Sissy Spacek -In the Bedroom
April Fools Predictions -4/01/01
Nicole Kidman Moulin Rouge * Sissy Spacek In the Bedroom * Cate Blanchett Charlotte Gray * Jodie Foster The Panic Room (delayed a year) * Meryl Streep Adaptation (delayed a year)