Pre Nomination Articles:
Holding Patterns -The Buzz / NBR / God I love This Town: NYFCC Pick / Boston & LA / Globe-a-thon / Golden Globe Analysis / Is Best Actress "Lock"ing Up? / Spotlight on Best Pic / The Eve of Balloting /
Pic /Dir / Screenplays / Tech Categories / Actress / Actor / Animated / Supp Actor / Supp Actress / Foreign / Guest Article: Boyfriend Thinks I'm Crazy / Final Nomination Predictions: Curse of the Vote Split
Post Nominations through Post Ceremony Articles:
Pic /Dir / Screenplays / Tech Categories / Actress / Actor / Animated / Supp Actor / Supp Actress / Foreign /
King Kong: The Actor's Race / The Moulin Rouge! Experience/ DGA & SAG / Which Year is it Again? / Oscar Diary 1: March 16-19 / Oscar Diary 2: March 20-22 / Final Oscar Diary / Oscar Night Review
Oscar Diary
3/25 Thank God That's Over With
And one more: Full Oscar Night Review...
So, every year it's about the same. I hope to be pleasantly surprised but I'm mostly dissappointed. Did well in my predictions though -at least considering how wide open this race was. See here. I'm not sure why I put myself through this because each year... well, I know this is whiny but I'm going to say it anyway...when is it my turn? When do I get to have the film I love the most win the top prize?
God bless Baz Luhrman and the Moulin Rouge! They'll go down in history, Oscared or not...
Category My
Prediction
(In red if it was wrong) Reaction Picture A Beautiful MindWell, we knew that was happening. But it doesn't mean I'm not quite depressed. Bland generic choice in an exciting and wild year with four great pictures losing... Director HowardAgain. This is even worse than best picture... he's up against 4 of the most acclaimed and influential directors in the world and he wins (?) What world is this we live in where that's OK? Actress SpacekWell, this went to Berry. And of course it made history but I wonder about her speech. I understand the emotional reaction to making history but I wish she'd been a little "stronger" about it. Personally I think that would have left a deeper impression. As it was I just felt -here we go with a Hollywood princess again... Actor CroweThis went to Washington. His speech was immensely classy and he's just so great. I'm thrilled about this. I personally think Wilkinson was the best but I can usually be thrilled about second best winning... and Denzel has a career worth celebrating. Supp Actress ConnellyWe knew this. This category is really a disguise for "Most Supportive Character." Longsuffering wives do well here. And I'm not just talking Marcia Gay Harden's win last year. Supp Actor BroadbentI was the only one I know of that didn't buy McKellen's chances. Berry made history for black women. But Sir Ian wasn't given the same opportunity for gay actors. It's probably going to be a LONG time before an out homosexual wins Hollywood's biggest prize. If Sir Ian and the late Nigel Hawthorne can't do it, who can? Rupert Everett can't even get himself nominated... Original GPYay! Adaptation ABMDamn! Animated ShrekDamn! Foreign No Man's LandI went for the upset here... and I was right. Yay! I've seen only 3 of the nominees but this was the best of those. One of only a few happy moments this night. Art Direction Moulin Rouge!Yay! Cinematography The Man Who Wasn't ThereI assumed that if it wasn't TMWWT it would be LOTR and I probably should have switched my vote. Editing Moulin Rouge!Well, wrong here. I wasn't confident about that prediction though. Black Hawk Down took it. Score Monsters, IncI was right that Randy Newman would take home his first Golden Boy. I just had the category wrong. Howard Shore from LOTR won this. Costume Design Moulin Rouge!Yay! Song "May It Be"This went to Randy Newman's "If I Didn't Have You" breaking his Susan Lucci streak. Sound Black Hawk DownI was right here. I figured the explosions would do it. Sound Editing Pearl Harborno brainer but I wish it'd been Monsters, Inc. MakeUp Lord of the RingsYay! Visual Effects Lord of the RingsYay! Documentary PromisesThe winner was Murder on a Sunday Morning Short (Docu) ThothYay! I was rewarded when I went out on a limb here...but it's a New York thang.... Short (Ani) For The BirdsYay! Short (Live) The AccountantYay! My favorite moment of the whole night: THE APPEARANCE OF WOODY ALLEN. I could not believe it and I loved every second of it.So My overall score in the big eight categories was... 6 of 8 for 75% (missing the two leads)
My overall score figuring in all awards was of 17 of 24 for something like 70.8%
3/24 The Morning of the Day of the Big Night
(Did you catch that?) It's 12:22 AM so it's officially Oscar time. E! will start their live coverage after I wake up (I have no idea what they'll talk about for 12 hours before people start showing up -so they'll probably just replay clips of previous red carpet moments zzzz.A few last minute things I want to give my two cents on...
AFI Awards
In various articles when people mention the AFI awards (usually in connection to the possible Denzel Washington win or LOTR's buzz) they're sometimes referred to as 'meaningless to the Oscar race.' I just wanted to offer a word of caution: Nobody knows what meaning the AFI wins do or do not have at this point. It's the INAUGURAL YEAR for f***'s sake. No statistics need apply just yet.A Few Thoughts on Best Cinematography.
Up until recently, based on precursors and Roger Deakins reputation it seemed a safe bet that The Man Who Wasn't There would take this statue. But the more I think about it the more I realize this is not a safe bet at all. The film has no other nominations -indicating the AMPAS voting populace wasn't crazy for it. It is also the least seen entry in the category... and none of the nominees this year are glaringly unworthy. A first! ha ha. Nobody seems to have been nominated for taking pictures of sunsets this year. It's so cool. My personal preference here is Moulin Rouge! with The Man Who Wasn't There coming in a close second. But if the Academy doesn't go for the always inspired work of the Coen Bros favored DP Roger Deakins (TMWWT), who also shot A Beautiful Mind this year, they'll probably go with LOTR. For whatever reason, unbeknownst to this moviegoer, cinematography -the way Oscar sees it -is about landscapes. LOTR has the natural grandeur of New Zealand on full display. Moulin Rouge! on the other hand with its sensational sets, costumes, and eye popping kaleidoscope of colors was probably the single most difficult film to light this year. And Donald McAlpine the inspired DP just makes it sing. The entire film is dripping in radiance and drama. But, and it's a 'big but', it's entirely filmed inside studio walls. In Moulin Rouge! the whole world is literally a stage. It'd get my vote but I'm not sure about those outdoor loving AMPAS voters. They tend to prefer God's natural lighting... to any manmade accomplishment. It's very possible that LOTR will take this... the only reason I'm still leaving TMWWT as the predicted winner is that Deakins is widely considered to be a genius AND he filmed ABM as well. His work on both films is well publicized and that may help his name pop up more often on the ballot. Much as I dislike ABM, Deakins work there is top notch as well. The man couldn't shoot an ugly film if he tried.One more precursor...
I just watched the Independent Spirit Awards. zzzzzzzzzz. Now, I liked Memento. I did. But I just don't get it winning everything over things like Hedwig and the Angry Inch. People regularly come up with new gimmicks for thrillers (The Usual Suspects, Se7en, etc...) and Memento is insanely clever... but for me it doesn't hold a candle to the phenomenal John Cameron Mitchell and his one-of-a-kind punk rock transgender show. (Don't even start with the tired critic-lazy "rocky horror" references... as they don't apply beyond a wig and makeup) I also tire of big Hollywood stars swooping in and stealing the awards right out from under people who are really toiling in the underground. I watch a LOT of movies. I read a LOT of film magazines. And I hadn't heard of at least two of the productions nominated tonight.
High Points :
Seeing Kerry Washington nominated for Lift. She was great in Our Song and Save the Last Dance last year as well. And seeing Gael Garcia Bernal (yum) presenting best foreign film. Gotta love him. Go see Y Tu Mama Tambien! These are both up and coming actors that I'm endorsing here at The Film Experience so take note: Expect great things from these two. (See my breakout awards)
Peter Deming getting an award for Mulholland Drive also ranked high as I feel he was robbed of an Oscar nod for cinematography.
Todd Field getting to give an acceptance speech. In all the In the Bedroom hoopla, he's left out as much as Nick Stahl.
Molly Parker's nomination for Center of the World. The film has problems but it did NOT deserve the throwaway we-can't-be-bothered-to-think-about-this reviews that it received when it opened. If you can handle sexually frank films, give it a rental's chance. Not perfect but there's some interesting things happening there...
Low Points:
John Waters opening monologue. I like Mr. Waters, I do. (Especially Hairspray and CryBaby) But his monologues at the ISAs always go on forever. Someone should ask him to be brief. (Although it is sort of amusing to watch how uncomfortable the big stars are with the irreverent humor)
Memento winning three awards and Hedwig losing everything it was nominated for.
Amélie winning foreign film. zzzzzz. This is the "Independent Spirit" award and the three big prizes (Feature, First Feature, Foreign Film) all went to the most financially successful nominee. That seems suspiciously Hollywood to me.
3/23 Prediction Comparisons
(Note: I changed my prediction in a couple of shorts categories -just because I didn't want to match everyone.)
As most every Computer literate Oscar junky knows -there's several sites that cover Oscar madness: Herewith a comparison of some major ones and their predictions: Predictions against the flow in red.
Site: Alex Fung ZeuseferO' Neill (GoldDerby) PREDICTIONS not PREFERENCES... Picture ABM LOTR ABM ABM ABM ABM LOTRMR! There you go, (name deleted): the general consensus for the "apocalypse"... ha ha. File this under 'Some people have no sense of humor' Director Howard Howard Altman Howard Jackson Howard HowardHoward Actress Spacek Berry Berry Spacek Spacek Berry BerryKidman Actor Crowe Washington Crowe Crowe Washington Crowe CroweWashington Supp Actress Connelly Connelly Connelly Connelly Connelly Connelly ConnellyConnelly Supp Actor Broadbent McKellen McKellen McKellen McKellen McKellen McKellenMcKellen Original GP Memento GP GP Memento MementoGP Adaptation ABM ABM ABM ABM ABM ABMABM Animated Shrek Shrek Shrek Shrek Shrek Shrek Foreign NML NML Amélie Amélie Amélie Amélie Site: The FiLM EXPERiENCE Oscar Watch Alex Fung Zeusefer Oscar Central EW Sijmen Awards Heaven Art Direction MR! MR! MR! MR! MR! LOTR Cinematography TMWWT TMWWT TMWWT LOTR TMWWT TMWWT Editing MR! MR! BHD MR! MR! MR! Score M,Inc ABM LOTR ABM LOTR LOTR Costume Design MR! MR! LOTR MR! MR! MR! Song "May It Be" "Until" "Until" "Until" "Until" "If I Didn't..." Sound BHD LOTR LOTR LOTR LOTR LOTR Sound Editing PH PH M,I PH PH M,I MakeUp LOTR LOTR MR! LOTR LOTR MR! Visual Effects LOTR LOTR LOTR LOTR LOTR LOTR Documentary Promises Promises Promises Promises Promises Short (Docu) Thoth A&O Sing A&O Sing Short (Ani) FTB FTB GULAS FTB FTB Short (Live) Accountant Man Thing Man Thing Accountant Accountant Now, If we're talking preferences... that's a whole other ballgame.
What it all boils down to:
It's about 50/50 on the Spacek Vs. Berry front. No one will be surprised either way.
Despite past shocks in the supporting actress category -Connelly losing would still register as a shock.
People are generally behind ABM as the most probable Best Picture choice.
People feel like MR! and LOTR! will split most if not all of the technicals between them. But nobody's really agreeing on how many statuettes each of these spectacles will get.Previous DIARIES -March 20th -22nd
Previous OSCAR DIARIES and FINAL PREDICTIONS -March 16-19th
For more predictions and commentary on each individual race read on...
Picture /Director / Screenplays / Technical Categories / Actress / Actor /
Supporting Actor / Supporting Actress / Foreign Film / Animated Film
for the FiLM BiTCH Awards (if it were all up to me) go here.