Oscar
Diary
* March Madness* For the sake of my carpelled and tunnelled wrists, and my blurry bloodshot eyes -all picture contenders will be referred to by initials: A Beautiful Mind is ABM, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring is LOTR, Moulin Rouge is MR! -and YES, there is an exclamation point in the title, Gosford Park is GP, and the strangely forgotten candidate, In the Bedroom.
3/19 PredictionsGetting my mind around the 50/50 ---or should I say 33/33/33 nature of most of these hotly contested Oscar categories this year has been like trying to survive Balrogs and orcs while winding my way out of the Mines of Moria...or like trying to sing passionate lovesongs while dying of tuberculosis. This year's race has been alternately depressing, exhilarating, frightening, delightful, and maddening. And I finally figured out why it's been more of a rollercoaster than ever before: I really and truly care this year. I've whined about this several times on the site but only twice a decade (historically) has my favorite film of the year been nominated for best picture. You'd probably have to go back to the 60s to find a winner that matched mine. And this year I love a certain crazy ass musical to the depths of my soul. Moulin Rouge's victory has seemed tantalizingly just out of reach for months -and it's been driving me to sanity's edge. The win is so close you can almost taste it -but still probably unattainable. I have been Oscarwatching for years and I've never seen anything quite like this year of two and three horses race nearly across the board.
I think part of the problem has been the ever expanding awards season. It used to be the Globes and the DGA and then you were there at Oscar night with your locks and frontrunners firmly in place. Every year now, another show and honor surfaces to the point where now it feels like an entire sports season. September through early December is training and show games... Early December through January is the games. February is the playoffs. March is now the Superbowl or the World Series. This wild and bursting to the seams awards makes it more possible than ever for frontrunners to become underdogs and vice versa as the buzz ebbs and flows for months. If you follow this sort of thing you can end up more confused than somehow who just tunes it at the last second. As for my own predictions... I usually go with a mix of likely things and one or two daring guesses (trying to anticipate the surprises gives you worse percentage rates but it makes it a helluva lot more fun and to quote Sasha over at Oscarwatch "no guts. no glory"
I've been pumping for Moulin Rouge! all year, but I fear being quite disappointed come Oscar night. Just like awards magnet Jennifer Connelly, "I need to believe that something extraordinary can happen" ..but I'm so exhausted by the ubiquity of A Beautiful Mind news coverage that I have little hope that my needs will be met on Oscar night. The generic "triumph of human spirit" drama will undoubtedly prevail over all four of it's more worthy competitors:
My predictions are as follows:
BEST PICTURE
will win: A Beautiful Mind
Moulin Rouge!, Lord of the Rings, In the Bedroom, and Gosford Park will split the ballots that tend to be about artistic merit -leaving a wide open path to victory for the candidate that most benefits from Hollywood politics and connections.
should win: Moulin Rouge!
BEST DIRECTOR
will win: Ron Howard -A Beautiful Mind
The picture and director split last year but don't expect the same this time around. All five competitors have their voting constituencies but Howard is a director where the others are true 'auteurs' and Hollywood traditionally is quicker to embrace journeyman work in this category. Plus they like him.
should win: Lynch, Altman, or Peter Jackson. Honestly since Baz Luhrmann was snubbed, I'd be thrilled with any of those three winning.
BEST ACTRESS
will win: Sissy Spacek -In the Bedroom
possible spoiler: Halle Berry is tough tough competition for Sissy here after the SAG vote but Spacek is something of an acting legend and they love a comeback. Oddly enough the roles have an odd connection too, as they both play mothers grieving the loss of their only child albeit with very different surroundings and circumstances. I think Judi Dench is probably pulling more votes than one might expect.
should win: Nicole Kidman
BEST ACTOR
will win: Russell Crowe -A Beautiful Mind
He's a real son of a bitch... but when you're hot in Hollywood, they let you get away with murder -or a second Oscar in this case. Much as I love Denzel Washington (and I really do -he was sensational in Training Day) I don't think he'll be able to quite pull this one off given A Beautiful Mind's frontrunner status. The Academy notoriously and often nonsensically pairs Picture with Actor. Plus they're suckers for a disability. Crowe's got one but Washington doesn't.
possible spoiler: I have this wierd feeling that Sean Penn is pulling a lot of votes. But maybe it was something I ate... the media tells us that the only person strong enough to topple Russell is Denzel. It'll be close either way.
should win: Tom Wilkinson -In the Bedroom
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
will win: Jennifer Connelly -A Beautiful Mind
One of the only two "locks" all night... but this particular category is where the shocks and surprises most often occur so if we're lucky enough for that on Sunday -expect to hear "Helen Mirren." The next thing you'll hear is me screaming with glee since Helen was awesome in Gosford Park.
should win: Kate Winslet -Iris
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
will win: Jim Broadbent -Iris
Common thought is that Sir Ian McKellen will take this and that's a very good bet but this is one of my semi "surprise" choices. He was a frontrunner back in December (which seems like ages ago now, doesn't it?) and I think the combined might of Iris, Bridget Jones, and Moulin Rouge! fans will give him the victory.
should win: Sir Ian McKellen -The Lord of the Rings -my hero.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
will win: Gosford Park
possible spoiler: Memento
should win: Gosford Park
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
will win: A Beautiful Mind
possible spoiler: Lord of the Rings
should win: Lord of the RingsBEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
will win: The Man Who Wasn't There
possible spoiler: Lord of the Rings
should win: The Man Who Wasn't ThereBEST ART DIRECTION
will win: Moulin Rouge!
possible spoiler: Lord of the Rings
should win: Moulin Rouge!BEST COSTUME DESIGN
will win: Moulin Rouge!
possible spoiler: Lord of the Rings
should win: Moulin Rouge!
BEST EDITING
will win: Moulin Rouge!
possible spoiler: A Beautiful Mind
should win: Lord of the Rings (My favorites in this category: Gosford Park and Mulholland Drive were not nominated... so I don't really care that much who wins this one because I'm still pissed off about these exclusions.)BEST ANIMATED FILM
will win: Shrek
possible spoiler: Monster's Inc.
should win: Monster's Inc.BEST FOREIGN FILM
will win: No Man's Land (just a guess -mainly because I have to stick my neck out somewhere...)
possible spoiler: Amélie
should win: No Man's Land (but I've only seen three of the nominees so far)BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
will win: Lord of the Rings
possible spoiler: Pearl Harbor
should win: A.I. Artificial IntelligenceBEST SOUND
will win: Black Hawk Down
possible spoiler: Lord of the Rings
should win: Moulin Rouge!BEST SOUND EDITING
will win: Pearl Harbor
possible spoiler: Monster's Inc.
should win: Monster's Inc.BEST ORIGINAL MUSIC SCORE
will win: Monsters, Inc. This is one category that occassionally offers surprises and I can't see anything making for a landslide victory in this category ---so maybe Randy Newman will finally win his Oscar since he's the reigning Susan Lucci of the Oscar's music categories.
possible spoiler: A Beautiful Mind (if it sweeps Horner could be in again)
should win: no preference.BEST MAKEUP
will win: Lord of the Rings
possible spoiler: A Beautiful Mind
should win: Moulin Rouge!BEST SONG
will win: May It Be -Lord of the Rings
possible spoiler: Until -Kate and Leopold
should win: May it Be -Lord of the RingsBEST DOCUMENTARY
will win: Promises
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
will win: The Accountant
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
will win: For the Birds. Pixar tends to score well in this category and it's a great little film. Funnier in a few minutes than the entirety of most "comedies" coming out of Hollywood these days.
Final tallies:
A Beautiful Mind -5 statues (The absolute worst it will do is 2. The best could seriously be one of the most undeserved sweeps in Oscar history -it could conceivably take all 8. I'm guessing 5)
Lord of the Rings -3 statues (I'm hoping if Moulin! can't win the big one -than this does. I don't see a sweep happening but it's SO much more deserving of one than ABM.)
Moulin Rouge! - 3 statues (I'm hoping for more of course and anything is possible...)
And I really and strongly believe that nothing else has a chance of winning more than one...
In the Bedroom is the best picture nominee most likely to go home empty handed since Spacek is seriously threatened by both Halle Berry and Nicole Kidman
3/18 For Your Consideration
If you're one of those delinquent Oscar voters and you happen to be reading my miniscule tiny and personal humble opinion site (ha ha) let me help you fill in those pesky empty ballot spaces for you before it's too late to get them in the mail. Tomorrow is the deadline after all. Forget all about those expensive glossy FYC ads you've been looking at and the even sillier news reports of "smear" campaigns (the complaints of the "smear" are really just cleverly designed reverse smearing anyway...) and just think about who deserves what. For Your Consideration...
best picture -Moulin Rouge! simply put it's the best and most important film of the year. The type of film that will go down in history. Moulin Rouge! is the rejuvenation of an important beloved but neglected film genre and if that weren't enough it's the single most joyous cinematic experience of the year. It's too soon to say what affect any of the films nominated will have on the cinema itself but when in doubt -go with the risk taker. Risks and experimentation are the only thing that keeps any artform alive and moving forward. And as film artists, that sort of movement should be applauded and rewarded with an Oscar.
(2nd suggestion): If you don't like Moulin Rouge!, please consider the Lord of the Rings, another expert rethinking of another neglected genre -one that's never gotten any respect before. Mostly because no one working in the fantasy realm ever made a film even half this good. An enormously good film that commands respect.
best director -Robert Altman This cinematic master doesn't have an Oscar yet and he's made one of his best films ever this past year in Gosford Park. Altman has influenced many a filmmaker but no one can choreograph a crowd and yet zero in on theme and character the way he can with that busy a frame. He's one of a kind.
(2nd suggestion): Peter Jackson or David Lynch. They both made films that no one else could have made and that feat requires singular vision. In a great year for directorial triumphs, please cast your vote for someone with actual auteurist cred. (p.s. Lynch is really my preference in this category -because of the 'singular vision' thing but I know he can't win so please vote for Altman or Jackson. Thank you.
best actress -Nicole Kidman Even if you object to the notion of combining separate performances into someone's "year" and you want to look at this film alone -Nicole still deserves the prize. Moulin Rouge! for all it's nonstop spectacle required lead actors with absolute conviction and magic and Nicole and Ewan more than delivered, swinging from slapstick to romance to high tragedy in the same film and sometimes even within a scene. It was a highwire act of thespian passion. 2001 wasn't Nicole's year for nothing and her work in Moulin Rouge! was a good part of that.
(2nd suggestion): If you didn't like Nicole's work -cast your vote on over to Renée Zelwegger. Comedy never gets any respect -but if it's ever going to, why not start now. She was sensationally charming, whimsical, and touching as Bridget Jones... and if you can get over the drama is better prejudice I think you'd see that this performance is every bit if not more noteworthy than her competitors.
best actor -Tom Wilkinson Sissy gets all the credit but it's Wilkinson's understated and miraculous work as a good man soured by tragedy that is the stuff Oscars were made for. He's perfect in the film.
(2nd suggestion): If you prefer your stars bigger and your performances showier you can't go wrong casting your vote for Denzel Washington -in the year's most thrilling against-type work. He blazed off the screen in Training Day, elevated his co-star's performance and brought the entire film into respectability. Denzel has long since earned a leading man Oscar.
best supporting actress -Kate Winslet. She's possibly gotten the least amount of press of the nominees in this category but her work is magical as ever in the film. Part of Kate's problem (three nominations now and she's only 26) is that she's phenomenal so often that people are starting to take her award worthy work for granted. She's absolutely vital and alive onscreen and she's über charismatic as Iris. Broadbent and Dench have great chemistry but it is Kate's continual radiance that it the constant reminder of all that they've lost.
(2nd suggestion): If you didn't care for Kate, Marisa Tomei or Helen Mirren both did astonishing work this year as well. Fine, understated, and heartbreaking performances both.
best supporting actor -Ian McKellen He should've won in 1998... but that's not why he should win this year. He should win this year because he takes what could be a stock Obi Wan character...and fleshes him out to such an astonishing degree that Gandalf comes fully alive in the way that few movie characters ever do, he's just bursting with personality and actorly inspiration.
(2nd suggestion): Ben Kingsley was brilliant as well. Jim Broadbent is one of my favorite actors so I don't care if you vote for him... but that's a lead performance.
adapted screenplay -Lord of the Rings Because it not only accomplishes the herculean task of wrestling Tolkien's sprawling, slow moving narrative into something tight and enthralling but because it actually improves on its source material.
(2nd suggestion) In the Bedroom. Because it's brilliant. It's unusual. It's intelligent. And it's hard to shake.
original screenplay -Gosford Park. period. There's just no way that Julian Fellowes doesn't deserve that prize.
cinematography -The Man Who Wasn't There and Moulin Rouge! are both excellent choices. Take your pick.
costume design -It's gotta be Moulin! sorry.
art direction -Moulin Rouge!'s dizzily inventive set design and production quality are more than obvious and Oscar worthy but if you don't love that film -no one will laugh at you if you choose Lord of the Ring's incredible conception of Middle Earth either.
editing -My vote here would be for... hmmm, I don't really have a favorite. Vote for whatever movie you liked best -you will anyway... ;)
makeup -Common thought would have you choosing prosthetics of old age ABM or fantasy LOTR but for once you have a chance to honor glamour, period, theatrical work in Moulin Rouge! and you really should take it. The hair and makeup work on this film are out of this world cool gorgeous and aid in the already impressive iconography on display.
score -None of my favorites got nominated here but in lieu of a score I can really get behind, I would probably give it to Lord of the Rings because Howard Shore has been composing forever and he's never even be nominated before. A Beautiful Mind isn't bad either (in this one particular category)
song -May it Be -Lord of the Rings
sound -Moulin Rouge!
sound effects editing -Monsters, Inc (Come on, you don't really want Pearl Harbor referred to as an Oscar winning film, do you?)
visual effects -A.I. Artificial Intelligence. I'm not a fan of the film but these effects were superb and shouldn't be overlooked.
animated film -Do NOT go with the flow here. Really think this through. Your answer should be Monsters, Inc. Another inventive and heartfelt triumph from the incomparable Pixar Studios. They put all other animation work to shame (with the notable exception of something that's not nominated but we don't need to go there right now) Start off this category right and choose the best film. Monsters, Inc is that film. There's no other way to vote.Now get that damn ballot in the mail already! The Show Must Go On!
3/17 Mailbox & EW's picks
I haven't answered any letters in a long time and my brain is full of other people's thoughts... so here goes. First to EW. I'm sure anyone obsessive enough about the Oscars to be reading this March Madness diary is also going to be reading EW but let me just say that aside from the Denzel/Spacek (by a hair) thing (I think it may be the other way around Crowe/Berry by a hair) and the wierd Jackson/ABM split... they seem pretty right on the money. It does seem to be a tight three way race in MANY categories. For the record their predictions are...
Category: Predicted Winner (very very close second)Picture: ABM (LOTR)
Director: Jackson -LOTR (Altman and Howard)
Actor: Denzel -TD (Crowe)
Actress: Sissy -ITB (Berry)
Supporting Actor: Ian -LOTR (Broadbent)
Supporting Actress: Jennifer -ABM lock
Original Screenplay: GP (with the possible distant spoiler being Monster's Ball rather than Memento)
Adapted Screenplay: ABMNow, on to the always passionate reader mail...
Letter #1
Nathaniel! I love your site, and wanted to share a few comments on your article today: "What Year is it Again?" First Off, I had one comment on Gosford Park's SAG win for Best Ensemble. I'm not quite sure why analysts are interpreting this award as SAG's "Best Picture Winner." In truth, this was one instance where regardless of what you thought of the film, it was unquestionable that this was the "Best Ensemble" on the sheet. I mean just look at that fabulous cast list; this is the sort of movie this award was made for! As a SAG voter, I picked the cast from Gosford Park, for just that reason: it doesn't mean I would have voted for Gosford Park for Best Picture if it had been a catagory on my ballot.
While it's true that Best Ensemble doesn't equal Best Picture -it felt that way this year since the nominations were exactly identical. And I would have voted for GP as well there. But not by leaps and bounds above LOTR which I think has an extraordinary cohesion within the performances -the likes of which you almost never see in a genre picture. I also wonder how many actors can't make the distinction between casts and pictures that they're in. For example, just two short years ago American Beauty took this prize from the cast of Magnolia for crying out loud... and I don't know about you but for me that looks suspiciously like a "best picture" vote rather than an ensemble award.
Secondly - Bravo on your comparison stories!The 1951/1981 parallels are downright spooky, but I confess, I think its stretching it a bit to fit this year's crop into last year's mold. No film of last year had the passionate following that Moulin Rouge and LOTR have developed, and certainly there was nothing last year to come close to the knock down mud bath campaigns we've seen the past few weeks.
Yeah. It was a stretch ;) But you have to come up with an angle you know, the curse of every writer. But anyway, stretch or not, it still feels like the same motivating factors in terms of who will take home the big prize.I also wanted to comment on what I'm "witnessing" out here in L.A during the insane final week buzz round - My what a bizarre hurricane has arisen! Suddenly Halle Berry and Denzel Washington are being called favorites. Suddenly reporters including Roger Ebert are sensing a Moulin Rouge upset. Can it be we all have this race pegged wrong? True, buzz-o-meter can be mistaken for wishful thinking, or the work of a crafty publicist. And even than, a late surge by an underdog may be too late to over ride the votes cast by the early Oscar balloters. But, tides do change: it wasnt really until a week or two before the Oscar ceremony a few years back that people began feeling the wind come in for Shakespeare in Love over Saving PR....
It will certainly be a nailbiter. Unless ABM takes makeup and editing early on -in which case you know a sweep is on the way. I hope that the recent surges for Washington and MR! do come through... but I remain skeptical.Now - all of that said...Ultimately, I think your concensus is probably correct: that in a year of potential crazy surprises, we will most likely end up with the list of winners we all got bored with months ago: A Beautiful Mind, Ron Howard, Sissy Spacek, Russell Crowe etc. BUT - what fun this race has turned out to be! Thanks again for all your wonderful work on your site
~ Best, BradyIt will be a nailbiter unless ABM takes makeup and editing early on -in which case you know a sweep is on the way. I hope that the recent surges for Washington and Moulin Rouge! do come through... but I remain skeptical.
Letter #2
Hey Nathaniel: Just when my glimmer of hope that that middlebrow piece of schlock A Beautiful Mind was going the way of the dinosaur in this year's Oscar derby, Ron Howard's totally pedestrian, totally uninspired direction reaps his peer's highest honor. Yikes! I would have been thrilled with Jackson, Luhrman, or Scott.... Don't know how I'll be able to bring myself to watch the Oscar telecast this year if I have no hope of anyone preventing an ABM sweep. As far as the SAGs are concerned, what can you really say about a body that doesn't even give a nod to either Dame Maggie Smith or Kate Winslet (especially after its nod to her last year for Quills)???
Not much which is why I don't take them as seriously as the Oscars. But yeah, the ABM stuff is depressing. Very depressing. I can't not watch the Oscars but if it goes that way -I'll be drinking heavily during the broadcast much to the delight of my packed house (party!)The good news is that my gut is still telling me Denzel, so I'm keeping my fingers crossed. And the Best Actress race has certainly emerged as a tight one. I had a feeling Sissy was out for way too long for her own good, although I still think she'll squeak through.
Ditto on both. As far as the Best Actress race -well, it just goes to show you that aside from possibly Julia Roberts last year -there's rarely such a thing as a "lock" The wierd thing about the race is the tide really does seem to have shifted to Denzel and Halle but given the heated debate on the "race" card -doesn't it strike anyone else as too unbelievable that both should win? I just can't see it happening -even though I wouldn't mind it. I'm no fan of Halle's but I'm not invested enough in Spacek winning to care much.
Still marking Jennifer (ugh!) and now marking Sir Ian, which thrills me ...You do of course know that my Ms. Winslet should now have at LEAST five nominations at 26, what with Quills and Holy Smoke (for which, IMHO, she should already have a little gold man on her mantelpiece).
- RobI couldn't agree with you more on Kate Winslet, the finest 20something actor on the planet, male or female. I'm happy to finally find someone else who thinks that she -and not Hilary Swank, not Annette Bening, and not snubbed Reese Witherspoon -was the true Best Actress of 1999. For all you readers out there who tire of the current crop and want to see a TRULY award worthy performance (which wasn't nominated for any of course) do yourself a favor and rent Holy Smoke! This is what a great and committed actor can do and be. Marvelous.
Letter #3
Nathaniel, Excuse me, if I have to barf at Ron Howard's win of the DGA. What are these so-called professionals thinking? Did they see the same movie that I did?
Evidently not. But I saw the one you're referring to.Despite all this insanity, I still think there are going to be several BIG surprises at the Oscars, with another Best Picture/Director split like last year. I did some checking on Oscars.org, the Academy's official website, at the voting rules. The various craftsmen do select the nominees in the field of their own expertise (ie. directors for directors). HOWEVER, the entire Academy voting body votes for all the award winners in the acting, design and technical categories, except for Documentary, Foreign Film, Animated Film, Short Subjects, Make-Up, Visual Effects, and Sound Effects Editing. The Picture, acting, director, screenplay, cinematography, sets, costumes, sound, film editing, music, and song categories are subject to the whims of the 5,900-and-then-some AMPAS voters. One interesting thing that I have discovered is that a lot of the guild awards almost never match up with Oscar winners. For example, the cinematographers vote for the best, most technical work with their guild award (this year, Roger Deakins for The Man Who Wasn't There), but the Oscars tend to most often go to the films that Academy voters are most aware of. To be specific, the cinematography award in the past 40 years has gone to Best Picture nominees all but seven times. Regarding the Costume Designers Guild, they are a very elitist bunch that regularly refuses membership to non-Hollywood-based designers, hence the Moulin Rouge snub. What does this have to do with the greater scheme of things? I still think that the actors branch could send Moulin Rouge over the top in several categories, including costumes, sets, cinematography, and a major upset in the Best Picture race. This is not wishful thinking on my part, but a just a sense that I have. The Directors Guild has always done their own thing, irregardless of what the popular sentiment within the industry may be. We shall see.
Hey, I'm ALL for surprises. Mostly because the frontrunners are never my favorites. But expecting a lot of surprises seems to be wishful thinking... I just think it's going to be a disappointing night. See more of my reasoning here.God forbid that ABM (I'm reluctant to even spell it out for fear that I will jinx the universe), the worst Picture nominee, should actually take the award. Who do you have to sleep with to get Moulin Rouge the Oscar? I'll call them now. . .Jonathan
That's funny. Hey, I'd make the sacrifice. To quote Demi Moore in Indecent Proposal "It's just my body. It's not my heart. It's not my mind" (or whatever the hell she said...) Hmmm, if I sleep with someone to get MR! the Oscar does this qualify as playing a 'hooker with a heart of gold'? Maybe I can even be nominated next year?
3/16 So many questions / So little time...
The Oscars are now just one week away... I've been turning this over and over in my head and yet my predictions never seem to change. It's as if, faced with a year whose surprise cup overfloweth, I seem resolute that no surprises will occur. That we're looking at ABM, Crowe, Spacek, Broadbent, and Connelly -all the early frontrunners for Oscar gold. In short, I just keep seeing the Golden Globes all over again. Now I know that statistically speaking, this seems stupid and it betrays a stubborn immobility on my part... but for every reason you can think of to name someone else a sudden frontrunner (like, say, Berry or McKellen) I can think of one to keep things just the way they are... And then there's the matter of personal preference. Much to the delight of my inner masochist, I am routinely disappointed in this event that I fetishize each year. I always expect the worst. So I continually seem to be breaking the cardinal rule of the Oscar predictive set: Do NOT let personal feelings interfere. Indeed, I am so convinced the Moulin Rouge! is both the best and the most important film of 2001 that I immediately dismiss any argument that it may win. How could it win when I love it so? And if there's a surprise I keep seeing Gosford Park rather than Luhrman's whacked and bliss-out musical as the spoiler. It did, after all, take the SAG ensemble, indicating a broad base of actorly support and earlier precursors also suggest remarkable support for curmudgeonly septugenarian Robert Altman as well.
There are so many questions in so many races. Perhaps as perfect embodiments of all that is strange about Oscar, the only two locks are in two of the categories you'd expect to be most competitive. Jennifer Connelly has been strangely dominant in the supporting actress category all awards season, despite the fact that it's a weak retread of the winning supporting actress character last year and that every other performance nominated has obvious and award-worthy merits. You'd think the caliber of performances selected would make this a tighter race...? Even more absurd is Akiva Goldsman's stranglehold in the adapted screenplay contest for his work on ABM. If you told anyone who watches and knows films about this a year ago, not a soul would have believed you. That Akiva seems to have it all sewn up over the stellar scribe jobs on display in this category is a sad and painful reminder of all that is wrong with Tinseltown. Unfortunately both of those "locks" point to an overall ABM groundswell. I predicted a minisweep for ABM from the moment the nominations occurred and I still, unfortunately, see it clearly. Even after 19 years of Oscarwatching (I started young -obsessing about the Gandhi, ET, Tootsie race in March '83) my mind still reels at Hollywood's overall capacity to outright celebrate and embrace their own mediocrity. But I digress... the questions I have are as follows:Picture
At first it was a two horse race -ABM Vs. LOTR. After the Globes, BAFTA, and the PGA it seemed a three horse race -ABM vs. LOTR vs. a resurgent MR! And now after the SAG and various directors awards the question begs to be asked... is this really a FOUR horse race, something usually unthinkable at the Hollywoo derby. How large is GP's fanbase in LaLa Land? It's been quite a while since the Brits dominated Oscarthink -but it's possible that they could again. The question is: Is this race a 1951 (which points to MR!), a 1981 (which points to a surprise from GP) or a 2000 (which points to ABM)? And yes... I've given up on an LOTR win. (More on that at my Oscarwatch article -this article has pieces of this one so don't be alarmed by some similarity.)
Director
It's Opie vs. Altman. The really, really bizarre thing AGAIN is that it seems ABM can't lose. If you're talking career style Oscars, which everyone does -especially Hollywood (you think it's about the annual achievement?), think again. Who deserves an award for their body of work? Howard, the man who gave us Splash, The Paper, Gung Ho, Apollo 13, and last year's dud The Grinch or Robert Altman who gave us Nashville, Short Cuts, The Player, M*A*S*H*, McCabe and Mrs. Miller and last year's dud Dr T and the Women? Don't think too hard. The answer is obvious. The question is: When giving career awards, is the Academy really thinking about the actual career -or about how the person fits into their world?
Actor
All signs point to Crowe. Sort of. The question is three-fold:
How much, if any, damage did Russell's unbecoming tantrums do?
And, if damage was done...
How serious does Hollywood take the endorsement of Denzel Washington from both the AFI and Queen of Hollywood, Julia Roberts?
And---OK, just humor me here...
Isn't there any chance that the one who actually deserves it (Wilkinson) will win?Actress
Just a few weeks ago this seemed as locked up for Spacek as Supporting Actress is for Connelly. Now it's a three diva race. My guess is that Halle Berry's triumph at the SAG was a squeaker. This one is tight. You've got three candidates embodying three things Hollywood loves and mythologizes beyond all else. So the question is:
Which of the following does Hollywood love the most? A) The comeback -that's Spacek, sillies. B) The breakthrough -that's Berry, folks. or C) the icon -that's Kidman, and her newly burnished superstardom.
Answer that question correctly and you have this year's Oscar winner. It's that easy. Ha ha. Hard to say, though, right?
Supporting Actor
This category and its probable winner status has been fluctuating for quite some time. Early in the year Kingsley seemed unbeatable. Then Broadbent with his triple attack: Bridget Jones, Iris, and MR! seemed unbeatable, now the buzz shifts to one of my personal heroes, Ian McKellen who now seems unbeatable. So the question is:
Who (really) is unbeatable?
MakeUp
This may seem like an odd category to obsess on but it's a really interesting one this year. What you've got (and it's highly unusual for this category) is the three frontrunner best pictures all fighting it out. What's even more unusual is that you have the three types of makeup nominated. You've got ABM -the old age makeup... often nominated, but doesn't usually win. LOTR, the prosthetics... (usually the winning type) and MR!, the rarely nominated glamour/ historical/ mood type of makeup work. The way I see it that if MR! or ABM! wins this, Best Picture is their's.
Am I making any sense?
More Oscar Diary entries tomorrow! and the next day and the day after that and the day after that ....aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa March Madness is upon me!-Nathaniel
For more predictions and commentary on each individual race read on...
Picture /Director / Screenplays / Technical Categories / Actress / Actor /
Supporting Actor / Supporting Actress / Foreign Film / Animated Film
for the FiLM BiTCH Awards (if it were all up to me) go here.
