5 Final Predictions The DGAs chose a surprise contender in Nolan for Memento. But these men all feel hard to beat. To see my personal picks go to the FiLM BiTCH Awards
Robert Altman Gosford Park	Baz Luhrmann Moulin Rouge!	Ron Howard A Beautiful Mind	Ridley Scott Black Hawk Down	Peter Jackson Lord of the Rings
Precursor: New York, NSFC, AFI and Globe winner. BAFTA nominee.	Precursor: BFC, DGA, BAFTA, & Globe nominations. BFCA Winner (tie)	Precursor: Globe, BAFTA, & DGA noms. BFCA winner (tie).	Precursor: AFI & DGA nomination.	Precursor: BFC, BAFTA, Globe, and DGA noms.
Final Thought: Despite the wierd (but precedented) DGA snub -this seems a sure thing.	Final Thought: Even if the film pulls a Truman Show no-show in the picture race, he's in.	Final Thought: He's been a surprise omission before but that's unlikely this time.	Final Thought: Sympathy points for last year's loss -plus a daunting technical accomplishment.	Final Thought: A huge complicated epic that exceeded expecations. He's definitely in.
Strengths: Legendary director helming a classy period Brit comedy -something Oscar hasn't seen in awhile and may respond to. Audiences so far have been quite pleased. Weak spot: The Academy has never completely warmed to Altman and the lack of a DGA nod is very troubling. Still its hard to imagine the race without triumph this year.	Strengths: "Some Things Are Worth The Risk!" That tagline on a lot of the Oscar promotional material is very smart to highlight the very nature of the project...and his visionary diviseness. Weak spot: The film has a Golden Globe and NBR upswing but it's still hated by some critics, moviegoers, and no doubt some AMPAS voters too.	Strengths: He's an insider in an industry that likes to reward themselves. He's had a long long career in front of and behind the camera. Weak spot: Some critics of the film suggest that his direction is the film's weak link or that he's not the right man for this story. He has been shut out before when his film was nominated.	Strengths: Legendary non- Oscared director directing a war film. That genre excites Oscar big time. They may also feel bad about his loss last year. Great box office never hurts your chances either. Weak spot: The film is bleak, extremely violent, divisive, and some people are angry with it. Charges of racism and ethnocentricity are being mentioned.	Strengths: Outsider phenom who worked his way through cutting edge horror films to the arthouse to Hollywood - a real success story. A gifted storyteller with an epic film. Weak spot: Not an insider and he's still in "genre" films and they'll think they have two more consecutive years in which they can reward him. Not that they necessarily will.

2 Alternates Either of these men could conceivably bump someone.
David Lynch Mulholland Drive	Christopher Nolan Memento
Precursor: Everything except the DGA -frustrating.	Precursor: DGA nom. That's good but that's it.
Final Thought: A great run while it lasted and Oscar is oh-so-mainstream.	Final Thought: Seems like he could upset but who could he unseat?
Strengths: His film is one of a kind. He's recognized as visionary. He's scored before for 'out there' films . Weak spot: It's very 'out there'. Most troubling for AMPAS may be its origins as a TV pilot.	Strengths: Memento felt like a true original and its fans were a passionate bunch. It's the undisputed box office independent champ of 2001. Weak spot: The DGA was Nolan's only precursor attention. Period.

4 Extreme Longshots Seems like it would take a miracle now, doesn't it? jsdjgks
Todd Field In the Bedroom	Michael Mann Ali	Spielberg A.I. Artificial Intelligence	Jean Pierre-Jeunet Amélie
Weak spot: Nolan has the debut spot back-up from DGA.	Weak spot: Film not well received despite of its quality.	Weak spot: Too divisive. He's been rewarded enough.	Weak spot: Picture's buzz has nose dived.