Nathaniel here... (the boyfriend thinks
I'm crazy) ...back again to take a final pre-nomination dive into the
Oscar predictive fray. I wanted to just approach these final calculations
with the utmost in cool confidence and risky claims. But I'm continually
flipflopping on just about every fifth slot. The reality of predictions
is that one category always affects another so if you're off you end up
being WAY off... a best picture nom sends ripples through the tech categories
and everything. Also it sort of pisses me off to not take risks in predictions.
Sure, you score REALLY well if you just follow normal logic and the guild
awards exactly. But you'll never score 100%. I'm always after the 5 for
5 I got last year on actor and supporting actress ( a feat accomplished
by exactly no one else by my reckoning)...but of course this predictive
recklessness also conversely results in some 3 to 5 or even 2 to 5 humiliations.
Yikes! But I just can't go status quo.
FIVE
MYSTERY FACTORS...
1. How large is the Moulin Rouge!
fan-base?
Oh sure, it seems "lock"ish after all the precursor attention
and the loud and smart "Some things are worth the risk!" campaign
-but divisive pictures rarely make the final lineup no matter how good they
are. Plus it's my favorite picture of the year. And this may sound extraordinarly
self-involved but since my favorite picture
of the year only makes the lineup about twice a decade (in the 90s it happened
twice: 1993's The Piano and 1996's Fargo) -I'd be crazy not
to doubt it's locked status. Baz Luhrmann's musical spectacle could always
end up being the Truman Show
or the Thelma & Louise of
2001 -and go unnominated (final best pic guesswork here)
2.
Will Nicole Kidman split her vote?
Then there's the film's star herself: When 2001 first began, Nicole Kidman
was, in some
circles, still the subject of much controversy. The length of her marriage
aside, her union with Tom Cruise was from the start a highly scrutinized
one. Was she a real actress? A very lucky upwardly mobile one? A deeply
ambitious, souless player who had made an "arrangement"? A true
talent obscured by celebrity? Etc... All sorts of questions, all sorts of
backbiting, all
sorts of media attention. As the summer hit it became clear that it was
going to be a very bad year for Kidman-haters. I mean, my God this woman
turned the s**t out in 2001, giving not one... but two of the five best
performances this year. No easy feat and a mark of what a true diva and
"real actress" (to quote her iconic Satine) that she is turning
out to be. But the SAG awards point to a vote split problem...I mean, think
about it: Even if she makes every single one of the 6,000 actor ballots,
that's only 3,000 votes for
either performance (if it splits evenly -which it seems like it might),
a number low enough to be toppled by possibly any of the ladies in waiting:
Tatou, Watts, Swinton, Channing, or Blanchett. I will tell you this: If
I had a ballot I'd be putting both of her performances on it to insure that
I didn't contribute to the split. This curse also plagues Billy Bob Thornton,
but since one of his performances is clearly more well loved than the other
-it doesn't hurt him as much.
3.
Hasn't Shrek beaten all the odds
up until this point?
I mean, it's been showing up way to much at the precursor awards (even managing
an acting nod at the BAFTAs) and the Guild Awards and what have you... I
think (sad to say) that it will place. Because I'm a pessimist. And, face
it, mass appeal counts a lot when you're tallying thousands of votes.
4. Could Miramax,
the Oscar'ed glory of studios, no longer be dominant?
For a while I thought that In the Bedroom might slip due to its
bleakness. The Shipping News might get shut out. Even cutesy Amélie
has notable detractors. But how could that happen to this studio?
And where the hell was the campaign for Renée Zelwegger in Bridget
Jones? Talk about a no brainer campaign worth spending your dollars on.
Why didn't they? Not that it'll hurt her...
5. What the hell kind of hallucinogens was the SAG nominating committee
smoking?
Sorry. Just asking.
To read
extensive FINAL THOUGHTS on each race....
Picture /Director
/ Screenplays / Technical
Categories / Actress / Actor
/ Supp. Actor / Supp.
Actress / Foreign Film / Animated
Otherwise...
scroll down for the cheat sheet.
The
final pre-nomination FiLM BiTCH predictions cheat sheet.
(NOT MY CHOICES -For the FiLM BiTCH awards -go here.)
BEST
PICTURE
A Beautiful Mind * Black Hawk Down * In the Bedroom * Lord of the Rings
* Shrek
BEST
DIRECTOR
Altman -Gosford Park * Howard -A Beautiful Mind * Jackson
-Lord of the Rings * Luhrmann -Moulin Rouge! * Scott -Black
Hawk Down
BEST
ACTRESS
Berry -Monster's Ball * Dench -Iris * Spacek -ITB *
Swinton -Deep End * Zelwegger -Bridget Jones Diary
BEST
ACTOR
Crowe -ABM * Kline -Life as a House * Smith -Ali *
Washington -Training Day * Wilkinson -ITB
BEST
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Blanchett -Bandits * Connelly -ABM * Mirren -Gosford
Park * Smith -Gosford Park * Tomei -ITB
BEST
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Broadbent -Iris * Christensen -Life as a House * Kingsley
-Sexy Beast * McKellen -LOTR * Voight -Ali
Final
Tallies for the 8 Leading Films?
13
LORD OF THE RINGS: THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
(an unlucky number and that's sort of fitting since you know A Beautiful
Mind is going to end up winning...)
7 A BEAUTIFUL MIND
(this seems low for a frontrunner but I can't figure out where else it would
place)
6 BLACK HAWK DOWN and GOSFORD PARK
5 MOULIN ROUGE and IN THE BEDROOM
4 HARRY POTTER and SHREK
