The
2001 film year was chalk full of surprises and the awards season that resulted
followed suit. Based on precursor awards there's no clear frontrunner. The
awards have been all over the place, bookended, so far, by Moulin
Rouge! wins at the NBR and the PGA. In between we've had numerous
awards for Lord of the Rings, A Beautiful Mind,
Mulholland Drive, Gosford Park, In the Bedroom, and others. It's
been all over the place. The media, however, has taken a decidedly pro-
ABM stance. And based on that buzz alone,
it still does look like a good bet. Pity that considering it's the least
deserving of the win, let alone undeserving of the nomination itself. This
weekend the last two major precursors arrive. Despite their high win-win
correlation rates with the Oscars, the DGA and SAG could still keep the
race wide open in this unusual year.
DGA
-Best (?) Director
In the past ten years the Guild winner for director has found his film winning
the Picture Oscar 70% of the time. As for Directors themselves, the Guild
winner is even more likely to win the Best Director Oscar -with an Academy
seconded honor 80% of the time. Of the two years that this race did not
lineup -there were unusual circumstances afoot. In 2000 -there was Soderbergh's
dual nomination and a foreign film nominee, Ang Lee and in 1995 there was
the non Oscar nom'ed win for Ron Howard. Should Baz Luhrmann win this race,
it would be an odd echo of Howard's past DGA/Oscar tussle... and it may
signal that the DGA does not approve in the slightest of auteurial contradictions
from the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
This
year, as anyone following the race knows, is murkier than usual. But from
an outside perspective it seems like a three man race:
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Ron
Howard
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Peter
Jackson
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Baz
Luhrmann
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Christopher
Nolan
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Ridley
Scott
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If
Howard wins here... I'm feeling that his ABM machine will have
a minisweep come Oscar night. He's already won the DGA once (Apollo
13) and this will be a huge boost for ABM.
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I
have a gut feeling that the DGA (known for surprises) is going for
an outsider this year since they have three first time nominees. It's
either the Aussie or the Kiwi, I bet.
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The
recent PGA to Moulin Rouge! indicates greater industry support
for the picture than previously thought. Will DGA repeat 1995 and
award it to the non Oscar nom'ed director?
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Unless
they want to make it up to him for the poor showing Memento
had in awards season, the nomination is the reward here (I personally
would have Lynch or Altman here.)
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It's
possible that Scott has a groundswell "career award" brewing
-like the non DG'ed Altman. But it doesn't feel like it will happen
just yet. Next couple of years maybe...
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My
Prediction:
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Even
though I still view A BEAUTIFUL MIND as the obvious (safe
'zzzz') frontrunner for the major Oscar categories, for some reason
I feel the DGA will keep this exciting (Ron Howard's won their prize
before - maybe they won't feel like a repeat) and throw this to
either Baz Luhrmann or Peter Jackson for their visual spectacles.
My best guess is that they honor the massive three film undertaking
of Peter Jackson a couple of years in advance.
Will
win: Jackson
Might upset: Howard or Luhrmann
Should win: Luhrmann
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Keep
in Mind:
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Whoever
wins this award is NOT locked for the Oscar. They still have
to contend with Robert Altman. It is not the same race. The
DGA is notoriously Altman shy, but actors are decidedly not. And actors,
lest we forget, dominate the smaller Oscar voting pool.
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We'll
know late tonight (Saturday March 9th) how this race turned out... but we
won't know the Oscar outcome (due to the mitigating Altman factor) for another
couple of weeks. More on the Director Race.
S.A.G. -Best (?) Ensemble
In a first time occurence, the SAG nominations for best ensemble lineup
exactly with the Oscar nominees for best picture. So perhaps that particular
race will shed more light than usual on the eventual Oscar outcome. In the
short history of the SAG awards the ensemble film winner has a 33% chance
of scoring the best picture Oscar. That's not a lot to go on statistically,
but in a foggy race it may help to piggy back this award with the DGA (if
they lineup) to see the Best Picture winner.
But
if the enormous voting populace of the SAG votes on actual collective acting
this race could go to any of the films. A Beautiful
Mind has showy star turns and vivid supporting roles (even
though they're all two dimensional characterizations). Gosford
Park has the ultimate Brit-thespian prestige cast. They're
all exceedingly fine-tuned in Altman's gorgeously choreographed class comedy.
In the Bedroom has the tightest
and smallest cast, but the performances are uniformly excellent and cohesive.
Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
has a very large cast with a mix of unknowns and highly respected
stars and doesn't seem like a frontrunner for this award because epics rarely
strike people as being ABOUT the acting. However, this film does have the
great distinction of being the finest acted fantasy/sci fi film of all time.
And no, I'm not kidding. Every performance rings true and there are no tonal
inconsistencies of the sort that often occur in genre acting. And finally,
the cast of Moulin Rouge! also
have a lot to distinguish them. They're the bravest ensemble in the bunch
and their roles required singing, dancing, comic skills, and operatic tragedy
emoting.
This
is a tight, tight, tight race and honestly, I could see any of these casts
winning. My very, very, very hesistant prediction is Gosford Park.
Because it's a) what everyone thinks of as a traditional "ensemble"
and b)they're mostly British which helps in the prestige factor -the casts
of Full Monty and Shakespeare in Love won in other tight races
and other nominees for this award that were not nominated at the Oscars
for Best Picture tend to feature heavily British casts (like Waking Ned
Devine, Little Voice, Billy Elliott, etc... If, however,
A Beautiful Mind or Moulin
Rouge! or Lord of the Rings
win... I think you have your best picture winner right there. Just a hunch.
33% is not a lot to go on in terms of predictive power... but it seems that
in this one particular year the SAG might let us know more than the DGA.
Will
win: Gosford Park
Might upset: any of the nominees -seriously.
Should win: Gosford Park
S.A.G. -Best (?) Actor
In a first time occurence, the SAG nominations for best ensemble lineup
exactly with the Oscar nominees for best picture. So perhaps that particular
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Russell
Crowe
A Beautiful Mind
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Sean
Penn
I am Sam
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Kevin
Kline
Life as a House
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Denzel
Washington
Training Day
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Tom
Wilkinson
In
the Bedroom
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The
film is well liked (sigh) and Crowe can do no wrong these days with
the public (sigh)
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My
vote for the most likely to surprise.
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Thanks
for playing!
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An
outside shot but he's more likely to take the Oscar than the SAG.
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Thanks
for playing!
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My
Prediction?
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This is easy. It's Russell Crowe.
But if there's a surprise look for Sean Penn (no, I'm not kidding)
because actors in general worship him -including scads of wannabes
with SAG cards who can vote on this prize... Denzel has an outside
shot (he actually has a much better shot at the Oscar)
Will win: Crowe
Might upset: Penn or Washington
Should win: Wilkinson
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Keep
in Mind:
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However,
I am sick to death of the predictive line of thinking that SAG
= Oscars. The Oscar ballots are just about due and I think the
SAG outcome won't effect that many ballots. Also the voting constituencies
differ by about 91,000 voters. That's A LOT OF VOTES. SAG also
has a tendency to sway even further towards stardom than Oscar
who is sometimes willing to go to a newcomer. SAG is all about
publicity because the voting block is not a block at all but spread
out all over the country and some voters are hardly industry-insiders,
just regular people with SAG cards who may not know Tom Wilkinson
from Jim Broadbent, you know?
And perhaps most importantly -Oscar people have the quandry of
"do you vote for this person two years in a row?" whereas
SAG voters do not. SAG does not equal Oscar this year. Especially
if it goes to Crowe. More on the Oscar
race.
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S.A.G.
-Best (?) Actress
Another murky Oscar predictive category due to the presence of Jennifer
Connelly. Er... on second thought, it could mean that A
Beautiful Mind is going to sweep the Oscars. If Jennifer takes
this she's unstoppable on Oscar night. If the general public and actors
all like her more than Spacek, Dench, Berry, and Zelwegger... well, what
can you say? I'm inclined to say Spacek and I'm going to -she's
my frontrunner prediction- but something keeps saying Connelly could pull
this off just as Benicio Del Toro did last year. Though truth be told,
with Kidman out of this race it doesn't interest me much.
Will
win: Spacek
Might upset: Connelly
Should win: Zelwegger
S.A.G.
-Best (?) Supporting Actor
I think this is going to Ian McKellen because the film (Lord
of the Rings) is a hit and all 96,000 voters will have seen it. (SAG tends
to favor big stars and he's more famous and talked about right now than
the other nominees) Plus he's excellent in the film. In terms of Oscar though,
this is not going to be a lock for anyone. Oscar will pick either Broadbent,
McKellen, or Kingsley but
at this point a lock is not happening for anyone. The race is too close.
Will win: McKellen
Might upset: Broadbent
Should win: McKellen
S.A.G.
-Best (?) Supporting Actress
With Jennifer Connely out of this race
it's anyone's guess... My gut instinct tells me it's going to Cameron
Diaz. Don't ask why. By the way my instincts are often wrong. I'd be
happiest if Helen Mirren took the prize
(she's the only Oscar nominee from this lineup and the most deserving of
the SAG prize.) The other nominees are Dakota Fanning
-I am Sam, Judi Dench -The Shipping News, and Cate Blanchett for Bandits.
Will win: Diaz
Might upset: Mirren
Should win: Mirren
-Nathaniel
