Oscar Outlook -3/17/02
Which Year Is It Again?
The rarity of the open race.

The Oscars are now just one week away...I've been turning this over and over in my head and yet my predictions never seem to change. It's as if, faced with a year in which the surprise cup overfloweth, I seem resolute that no surprises will occur. That we're looking at all the early frontrunners for Oscar gold. In short, I just keep seeing the Golden Globes all over again. Now I know that statistically speaking, this is stupid and it betrays a stubborn immobility on my part...but for every reason you can think of to name someone else a sudden frontrunner due to the SAGs, the PGA, the DGA (all contradictory of course) I can think of another one to keep things just the way they are. At first this yearÕs Oscars were a two horse race -ABM Vs. LOTR. ABM is the only co-production nominated, and historically co-productions up against single studio productions win. On the other hand, LOTR has the most nominations and the film with the most nominations wins. So therein lies an impossible predictive contradiction: they both have to win. There's never been a best picture tie... so someone has to fall.

But after the PGA gave resurgence to MR! and the SAG embraced GP -the race was further muddled. Is this really a FOUR horse race, something usually unthinkable at the Hollywood derby? The currently hot picture seems to be AltmanÕs classy class conscious comedy. But how large is Gosford Park's fanbase in LaLa Land, really? It's been quite a while since the Brits dominated Oscarthink -but it's possible that they could again.

The question really is what vintage is this race? Do we have a Ô51 on our hands? an unexpected Ô81? or a more familiar Ô00? Or is this new Oscar race a contest the likes of which we havenÕt seen before? LetÕs investigate:

1951: This raceÕs eery correlations with 1951 are quite interesting and fully explored over at GOLDDERBY where Tom OÕNeill first pointed them out. HeÕs even gone so far as predicting that Moulin Rouge! will take home the prize. I hope heÕs right. The theory is that Lord of the Rings and A Beautiful Mind are the Streetcar Named Desire and A Place in the Sun of this year (not sure which is which but he explains it all) -the expected frontrunners that separate the crowd, as the frothy musical An American in Paris / Moulin Rouge! dances through the divide to nab the gold. While this is a cool cool theory, it sounds just to good to be true (although for the record -just so y'all don't think I'm always blinded by the musical genre, I would have voted for A Place in the Sun had I been alive and an Academy member in 1951.)

1981: ThereÕs also the less discussed Ô81 race to consider. That yearÕs story is also translatable: A big, surprisingly heartfelt epic (Reds / LOTR) faces off against a warm and fuzzy adult drama (On Golden Pond / ABM) and the other films nominated are one atypical Oscar contender -an adventurous wild ride film (Raiders of the Lose Ark / Moulin Rouge) and another adult drama which is much darker than the fuzzy frontrunner (Atlantic City / In The Bedroom). Who wins the race? Not the films with the most nominations and the DGA but the little successul British indie that has one major Globe win (GP has director/Chariots had Òforeign filmÓ) In the end the Hollywood icon Beatty wins the directorial race...But itÕs the plucky jogging Brit-pic that takes home Best Picture.

2000: But, the race this year most closely resembles, at least to me, is 2000. You have your two relatively daring, fresh, energetic, artful competitors beloved by critics and also embraced by audiences: (Crouching Tiger & Traffic/ MR! & LOTR) up against your old school enjoyable Oscarbait picture (Gladiator/A Beautiful Mind) thatÕs loved by audiences, stars Russell Crowe, and is well regarded by many critics (but without many number one slots on top ten lists), but that no one in their right mind would ever call ÒgroundbreakingÓ or Òoriginal.Ó The result? The fresh challenging pictures nab some gold but the big prize goes to the safe, predictable, more Oscarlike candidate.

So, when all is said and done... It still insanely feels like anything could happen but that a surprise probably wonÕt. If, however, one does occur, it could be GP rather than Luhrman's whacked and bliss-out musical, as the spoiler. It did, afterall, take the SAG ensemble, indicating a broad base of actorly support and earlier precursors also suggesting remarkable support for the curmudgeonly septugenarian, Robert Altman, as well. There are so many questions in so many races. But, to bring us back to planet earth, there are two smaller awards that indicate where the Academy leans. Perhaps as perfect embodiments of all that is strange about Oscar, the only two ÒlocksÓ are in two of the categories you'd expect to be most competitive. Jennifer Connelly has been strangely dominant in the supporting actress category all awards season, despite the fact that her character is a weak retread of the winning supporting actress character from last yearÕs Oscar race and that every other performance nominated has obvious and award worthy merits. You'd think the caliber of performances selected would make this a tighter race...? Even more absurd is Akiva Goldsman's stranglehold on the adapted screenplay contest for his work on ABM. If you told anyone who watches and knows films about this a year ago, not a soul would have believed you. That Akiva seems to have it all sewn up over the stellar scribe jobs on display in this category is a sad and painful reminder of all that is wrong with Tinseltown. Unfortunately, both of those awards point to an overall ABM groundswell. I predicted a minisweep for ABM from the moment the nominations occurred and I still, unfortunately, see it clearly. Even after 19 years of Oscarwatching (I started young -obsessing about the Gandhi, ET, Tootsie race in March '83) my mind still reels at Hollywood's overall capacity to outright celebrate and embrace their own mediocrity. Even though my Oscar crystal ball looks muddier than usual, I still see doom for my preferred candidates. After all, surprises or no, on Oscar night there are more losers than winners.

-Nathaniel

For more predictions and commentary on each individual race read on... Picture /Director / Screenplays / Technical Categories / Actress / Actor / Supporting Actor / Supporting Actress / Foreign Film / Animated Film

for the FiLM BiTCH Awards (if it were all up to me) go here.