OSCAR speculation

Awards Pages Index *
History of Oscar 2001

Pre Nomination Articles:
Holding Patterns -The Buzz / NBR / God I love This Town: NYFCC Pick / Boston & LA / Globe-a-thon / Golden Globe Analysis / Is Best Actress "Lock"ing Up? / Spotlight on Best Pic / The Eve of Balloting /
Pic /Dir / Screenplays / Tech Categories / Actress / Actor / Animated / Supp Actor / Supp Actress / Foreign / Guest Article: Boyfriend Thinks I'm Crazy / Final Nomination Predictions: Curse of the Vote Split
Post Nominations through Post Ceremony Articles:
Pic /Dir / Screenplays / Tech Categories / Actress / Actor / Animated / Supp Actor / Supp Actress / Foreign /
King Kong: The Actor's Race / The Moulin Rouge! Experience/ DGA & SAG / Which Year is it Again? / Oscar Diary 1: March 16-19 / Oscar Diary 2: March 20-22 / Final Oscar Diary March 23-25 / Oscar Night Review

Best Picture
& overall prediction totals

Predicted Winner: Gold Contenders: Light Yellow Dark Horse: Light Blue

Precursor Awards
Critics/Organizations/Websites
.......NBR: Moulin Rouge! New York: Mulholland Dr LA: In the Bedroom Boston -Mulholland Dr Florida: Amélie San Diego: Ghost World Toronto: Memento Las Vegas: Memento Southeast: Memento Texas: A Beautiful Mind National Society: Mulholland Dr Broadcast: A Beautiful Mind Cinemarati: Mulholland Drive Apex: A.I. Artificial Intelligence Chicago: Mulholland Drive
Industry
,,...,,Euro: Amélie / Moulin Rouge! AFI: Lord of the Rings Globes: A Beautiful Mind / Moulin Rouge! Satellites: Moulin Rouge! / Lord of the Rings / In the Bedroom BAFTA: Lord of the Rings PGA: Moulin Rouge! DGA: A Beautiful Mind SAG: Gosford Park


A Beautiful Mind	Gosford Park	In the Bedroom	The Fellowship of the Ring	Moulin Rouge!
(Universal w/ Dreamworks) dir. Ron Howard (official site) Precursors: Globe, & BFC winner. PGA nomination.	(USA Films) dir. Robert Altman (official site) Precursors: BAFTA winner (British film) Golden Globe nom & AFI Director win.	(Miramax) dir. Todd Field (official site) Precursors: Multiple critics awards. Globe nominee. 3 SAG nominations.	(New Line) dir. Peter Jackson (official site) Precursors: AFI & multiple BAFTA winner. PGA & Globe nominations.	(Fox) dir. Baz Luhrmann (official site) Precursors: Globe, PGA & NBR winner. 2 Euro Awards. 2 AFIs. SAG nomination.
How'd these films get nominated?
Masterfully engineered for maximum Oscar baiting! 22 % Triumph of the human spirit! He wins...sort of. 22 % Biopic! He's a real person...sort of. 12 % Disease! He has one...sort of. 10 % December release...sort of. 10 % Box Office Hit! 10 % Resolutely middlebrow. 8 % Ubiquitous tasteful FYC ads. 3 % Retro gender politics which often gives them a boner. 3 % Russell Crowe.	Artfully crafted and biting nostalgia piece for cross- demo graphic appeal. 35 % Prestige class comedy complete with an enormous cast -a who's who of glittery & respected British thespians. 25 % A comeback for infamous director Robert Altman 20 % A comeback for a once Oscared favored genre, the British ensemble period piece. 10 % December release. 5 % Hilarious... 5 % ...but deep!	Critically exalted, Miramax funded, familial drama for the art film slot. 40 % The most accessible of the critical darlings. They weren't going for Mulholland Dr. 20 % Family drama. 20 % Miramax backing and plentiful and gorgeous (if misleading) FYC and TV campaign spots. 13 % Zeitgeist timing considering its mournful beauty and provocative moral questioning. 7 % Sissy Spacek	Sensational epic that lived up to its oppressive buzz for the blockbuster slot. 40% Pure magic and giant box office hit. 20 % A daunting technical achievement expertly handled. 15 % Moving 'Good vs. Evil' story. 10 % Rare genre piece that gets huge mileage from its acting. 10 % Clearly will be highly regarded in the future and Oscar knows it. 5 % Classy FYC campaign.	Risky musical tragicomedy hybrid making for a one-of-a-kind 'spectacle' 30% They'd never seen anything like it before. 30 % The return of a beloved genre (the musical) to a place of both profitability and artistic respect. 20 % Absolute studio commitment -the year's smartest FYC campaign. 12 % Clearly will be highly regarded in the future. 8 % The well publicized ascension of Nicole Kidman.
Celebrity or Critical Endorsements
		Roger Ebert	Lisa Schwarzbaum, Baz Luhrmann	Peter Jackson, Robert Wise, Steve Kmetko, Stanley Donen
How'd I do?
I scored 3/5 here. I thought they would go to war (Black Hawk Down) and for laughs (Shrek) instead of for classy (Gosford Park) and wild (Moulin) but I am VERY pleased to be wrong. In fact I consider this the single best lineup of ACADEMY BEST PICTURE NOMINEES that I have ever seen or at least can remember. Literally. 4 great pictures out of 5. This never happens! It's usually more like 2 great pictures out of 5 choices. See my top ten list to see why this lineup excites me so.
Who Got Robbed?
There was no chance that A Beautiful Mind wasn't going to make it. And there was no chance that Mulholland Drive or Hedwig could make it, so I can live with this lineup. I can TOTALLY live with this lineup. I'm thrilled with this lineup! See the FiLM BiTCH Awards for my personal Oscar Ballot -an even better lineup have I! whaddya think?
Who Might Think About Writing a Speech?
Well common thought will have you saying "most nominations wins" which would be *The Fellowship of the Ring. But the other line of thinking goes -when co-productions are nominated against single studio productions the co-productions ALWAYS win... so expect to see A Beautiful Mind* (yawn) take the big prize. But all of a sudden Moulin Rouge looks like it's still a darkhorse possibility...and as we come down to the wire... is it really a four horse race? Gosford Park is not without a considerable contingent either. The outcome of this tight race will still probably fall to the middlebrow Howard sudser but I bet that every vote is going to count and it will be close whichever way it falls.
*Who Should* Win**
You know what my answer is... MOULIN ROUGE! But given the incredible lineup this year -I wouldn't be displeased to see Lord of the Rings, Gosford Park, or In the Bedroom either. Just not A Beautiful Mind.