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Final
Thought:
It's all locked up and being the only co-production
-it's the winner. (Yawn)
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Final
Thought:
When in doubt -they always go to war. This
year, there's lots of doubt.
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Final
Thought:
Vulnerable due to its bleakness but Miramax
usually places. So...
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Final
Thought:
We can always pray that it bests the A
Beautiful Mind faction for the win.
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Final
Thought:
It has a fierce campaign and mass (if inexplicable)
populist appeal.
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Precursors:
Golden
Globe Winner. BFC win. PGA & BAFTA noms. 3 SAG noms.
Strengths: Despite the controversy surrounding it and its overall
mediocrity Universal and Dreamworks have been positioning it very
well as a "winner."
Weak spot:
Complaints of fictionalization and dishonesty won't prevent a nom
but they could leave a faint 'don't give it the win' feel for some.
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Precursors:
AFI nominee.
Strengths:
Buzz says it's a winner and the film was moved up to a 2001 qualifier.
War films often score several nominations and the box office is hot,
hot, hot -which DOES matter to voters.
Weak spot:
Relying entirely on timing since there was little precursor attention.
It's not a "rah rah we win" type of battle and that's the
mood right now. Its extreme violence won't appeal to all.
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Precursors:
Critics awards. Globe nominee. 3 SAG noms.
Strengths:
It's very good.
Weak spot:
Focus seems to be shifting entirely to the acting (which often happens
to bleak films) It took Miramax a long time to get behind Bedroom
as their contender. They wasted a lot of effort on The Shipping News.
It could be the first year in ten without a Miramax film.
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Precursors:
Globe
nominee. AFI
Winner. PGA & BAFTA nominee. 2 SAG noms.
Strengths: Adapted from the classic fantasy novel. It's long. It's
epic. It's a good vs. evil escapist fantasy. It's getting "best
of year" reviews. It seems to be able to flatten its competition.
Weak spot:
Long hype and popularity can sometimes turn to backlash. Will older
voters go for a fantasy film?
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Precursors:
AFI, PGA, BAFTA, and Globe nominee.
Strengths:
The campaign is Oscar's fiercest. The Producers Guild nom' and abundant
top ten placements indicate that people are really taking this seriously.
It's the biggest hit outside of Potter. And it's overcome every
obstacle in its way so far.
Weak spot:
It has its own category to win and that may prevent supporters from
voting for it.
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