OSCAR speculation

Awards Pages Index *
History of Oscar 2001

Pre Nomination Articles:
Holding Patterns -The Buzz / NBR / God I love This Town: NYFCC Pick / Boston & LA / Globe-a-thon / Golden Globe Analysis / Is Best Actress "Lock"ing Up? / Spotlight on Best Pic / The Eve of Balloting /
Pic /Dir / Screenplays / Tech Categories / Actress / Actor / Animated / Supp Actor / Supp Actress / Foreign / Guest Article: Boyfriend Thinks I'm Crazy / Final Nomination Predictions: Curse of the Vote Split
Post Nominations through Post Ceremony Articles:
Pic /Dir / Screenplays / Tech Categories / Actress / Actor / Animated / Supp Actor / Supp Actress / Foreign /
King Kong: The Actor's Race / The Moulin Rouge! Experience/ DGA & SAG / Which Year is it Again? / Oscar Diary 1: March 16-19 / Oscar Diary 2: March 20-22 / Final Oscar Diary March 23-25 / Oscar Night Review

Best Screenplays Final Predictions
Green: Locks. Yellow: Makes sense. Blue: Vulnerable? Orange: On the Rise

Precursor Awards: Australian Awards: Lantana Euro Awards: Amélie NBR: In the Bedroom NYFCC: Gosford Park LAFCA: Memento BOSTON: Memento FLORIDA: Memento SAN DIEGO: Donnie Darko & Ghost World LAS VEGAS: Memento TORONTO: Memento SEFCA: Memento / Lord of the Rings AFI: Memento NSFC: Gosford Park GLOBES: A Beautiful Mind SATELLITES: Monster's Ball / In the Bedroom

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY * the predicted five *
Gosford Park Julian Fellowes	Memento Christopher Nolan	The Man Who Wasn't There Joel &Ethan Coen	Monster's Ball Milo Addica & Will Rokos	The Royal Tenenbaums Wes Anderson & Owen Wilson
Precursor: NY and NSFC win. Globe, WGA, & BAFTA nom. Strengths: This script based on an idea by actor Bob Balaban and Altman himself is masterfully witty. Weak spot: A lock for a nom but probably won't win.	Precursor: LA, Toronto, & AFI Winner. BFC, & Globe nom. Strengths: Nolan's 2nd film and the biggest indie of the year. Screenplay is the most likely place they'll honor it. Weak spot: Ineligible at WGA. Category confusion also.	Precursor: BFC, WGA, & Globe nom. Strength: (2 noms in this category. 1 win for Fargo). You can't ever really count the Coen's out in this category. Especially after the O Brother shock last year. Weak spot: It's the Coens. It's nominated here.	Precursor: WGA nom. Strengths: Screenplays with classic Oscar bait themes like racism and redemption are among the favored topics with AMPAS voters.	Precursor: BAFTA & WGA nom. Strengths: Critics darling Anderson may find himself with a nomination here despite the strangely mixed reviews the film itself received.

2 Challengers
Moulin Rouge! Baz Luhrmann & Craig Pearce			Mulholland Dr David Lynch
Precursor: BAFTA & WGA nom. Strength: Witty, original, and far better than its rep. Weak spot: A lot of criticism of the film attacks its screenplay for the story being "too simple."			Precursor: Lots of critics kudos. Strength: Lynch scored critical hosannas. It stands out from pack. Weak spot: Many voters may feel that its true power is in direction and acting.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY * the predicted five *
A Beautiful Mind Akiva Goldsman	In the Bedroom Robert Festinger & Todd Field	Lord of the Rings Peter Jackson, Frances Walsh	Shrek ?	Bridget Jones Diary Richard Curtis
Precursor: AFI, WGA BFC noms & Globe & USC winner. Strengths: Though critics have savaged his work in the past -this has been inexplicably reversing the tide. Strengths: People like the film. Emotional content. Weak spot: NOT award worthy.	Precursor: NBR LA, Toronto, & AFI wins. BFC AFI, & Globe noms. Strengths: Strong screenplay . The immense critical response will convince the writer's branch. Weak spot: ineligible at WGA.	Precursor: BFC, WGA, & Globe nom. Strength: (1 nom- Heavenly Creatures) Terrific reviews, famous novel, likely frontrunner film. They're in! Weak spot: None.	Precursor: None really. But this film keeps beating the odds. Strength: I will puke if this gets several noms but it might because it's going to do well. Weak spot: It has a meandering plot and muddled message.	Precursor: WGA nom. Strengths: Big hit film. Funny stuff. Weak spot: Comedy. Oscar is so drama oriented.

2 Challengers
Ghost World Daniel Clowes & Terry Zwigoff	Black Hawk Down Ken Nolan
Precursor: WGA nom. Strength: A critical fav in film and graphic novel form -so it will have support. It has the indie vote at least. Weak spot: ...but how many votes is that?	Precursor: WGA Nom. Strength: The novel is said to have visceral power and so does the film. Weak spot: Will people think of this film's strength as being it's words? Probably not.