'02 OSCAR Speculation
Best Picture of the Year
Last Update 7/29/02

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"Just a spoonful of sugar
makes the medicine go down."
-Mary Poppins

In any given Oscar season, when high mindedness seems to rule and epics and "important" subject matter routinely triumph, it's easy to forget one thing: The voting body nearly always includes something for the funnybone in the year end shortlist. In 2001 with somber pictures like In the Bedroom and A Beautiful Mind competing for the top prize, you had the highstrung comedic antics of half of Moulin Rouge! in addition to the high class wit of Gosford Park to take away some of the bitter sting. The previous year Oscar nominees Traffic and Gladiator were low on laughs but the average moviegoer needs a little relief while enduring prestige dramas. Enter the exceedingly light (and maligned) Chocolat to fill the comedic gap. 1999, a much praised year, repeated that pattern. AMPAS went for self important pictures like The Green Mile and Cider House Rules but their number one choice that year was a dark film made palatable by a considerably effective laugh ratio, American Beauty. The humor stung but the audience still got to laugh. 1998 Oscar films leaned heavily toward the ravages of World War II but the winner was a comedy, Shakespeare in Love. 1997's big pictures were the historical epic Titanic and the neo-noir LA Confidential. True to form, the Oscars also included a scruffy little comedy, The Full Monty. The Oscars always find something to laugh about, no matter how dramatic the films happen to be.

So the question for Oscarwatcher's in 2002 is this: Which films will lighten the field this year? With the combined one-two punch of the already released Road to Perdition and the Christmas Scorsese epic Gangs of New York competing for the top prize, Oscar is going to want to find release in one or two of the other pictures on display.

Based on the AMPAS funnybone I would say its safe to assume that at least one of the five following comedically enhanced pictures will be shortlisted:

About Schmidt and Punch-Drunk Love both debuted to acclaim at this year's Cannes festival. If director Alexander Payne stays true to form, Schmidt, a senior citizen drama/comedy with Oscar's beloved Jack should be high on the wit list. Punch-Drunk Love went a step further at Cannes and took Best Director honors for young, ambitious, über talented, and heretofore previously Oscar neglected P.T. Anderson. They may right past wrongs with his first true comedy.

Adaptation and Chicago are wildcards of a sort. Spike Jonze and Charlie Kauffman will god willing never go conservative so Adaptation will be crazy. The question is how brilliant and how accessible will this edition of crazy be? Chicago is only a wildcard because it's a musical and Moulin Rouge! or not, who knows???

So my vote of Oscar mainstream love is going to Moonlight Mile. It's not a film I'm greatly looking forward to or anything but it seems like a prime contender for most embraceable by the widest variety of Academy voters. It stars three Oscar winners. It's about something somber while supposedly staying light on its feet, a tricky combo to pull off but one that may win the hearts of Oscar voters -eager to move on from last year's plethora of mope-fests: In the Bedroom, Monster's Ball, and Iris to name just a few.

--Nathaniel