TM


Oscar Time! Best Actor
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Updated
03/24/03

ADRIEN BRODY takes the prize, plants one on Halle Berry, and
fills the audience with joy! He gives good speech. Go Brody!

Pre Ceremony Thought:
It's been a three man race but Miramax's intense & ubiquitous campaign for Day-Lewis puts him in the lead. Unless of course Nicholson's rumored admiration of Brody's work sends some of his own loyal votes over Adrien's way for a surprise upset.

 

Adrien Brody
THE PIANIST
Nicolas Cage
ADAPTATION
Michael Caine
THE QUIET AMERICAN
Daniel Day-Lewis GANGS OF NEW YORK
Jack Nicholson
ABOUT SCHMIDT
first nomination!
2 noms / 1 win
6 noms / 2 wins
3 noms / 1 win
12 noms / 3 wins
Precursor Awards:
Cesar, Boston & NSFC
Role:
Wladislaw Spzilman, a famous pianist, hiding in Nazi occupied Poland for his life.
Precursor Awards:
Toronto
Role:
Screenwriting twins Donald and Charlie Kauffman's adventures in screenwriting.
Precursor Awards:
San Francisco & Golden Satellite
Role:
A British journalist living in Vietnam, has his love affair interrupted by a mysterious American.
Precursor Awards:
SAG, BFCA, LAFCA, NYC, Las Vegas, SEFCA, OFCS, Seattle, San Diego, BAFTA, Golden Satellite
Role:
Bill "the Butcher" Cutting, ruling the Five Points with a meat cleaver brutality.
Precursor Awards:
GLOBE, D.C., Dallas, & LAFCA
Role:
Retired widower, Warren Schmidt, out to stop his daughter's wedding and find some late meaning in his anchorless life.
How'd They Get Nominated?
65% Expressive and haunting performance. This being a one man show, it was hard not to notice how great he was.
20% Two prime Oscar hooks: Playing a real life person and physical alteration (weight loss) for the role.
10%
Lead role in Best Picture contender.
5%
Breakthrough for a young promising actor.
40% Like Woody Allen in his heyday, Charlie Kauffman writes great verbally dextrous roles that seem to inspire actors. Send him your thanks, Nic.
30% Playing twins. It's two performance in one. Both are very good ones; Comedic and dramatic.
15% 'Thank God he took a break from action films. Throw him a bone.'
50% 'Why, look at that. He's crying in the toilet!'
25% They like him. They really like him! (In fact, they like him in nearly anything)
15% Effective solid performance in serious historical film.
5%
Lead role in hot button film.
5%
Miramax campaign (Aborted quickly but it did the trick, right?)
55% Mesmerizing turn. "Chew that scenery!"
18% The coming out of retirement hoopla.
10%
The strange blandness of the other leads makes him look even better.
10%
Miramax campaign rightly trumpeted him.
5% Showy role in Best Picture contender.
2 % The glass eye and the handlebar mustache.
73% He's Jack, isn't he?
20% The type of performance that reminds you why he is such a hyper praised and eternally watchable actor.
5%
"JACK" dialed down in service of character. But still with wacky Jack-like impish hijinx; Naked hottubbing with Bates and water bed.
2%
the Golden Globe acceptance speech.
Celebrity or Critical Endorsements
Jack Nicholson
Roger Ebert
   
Robin Williams, Ashton Kutcher
How'd I do?
I scored 4/ 5 . I missed Cage's twin role for Gere's rolling Billy Flynn momentum in Chicago. Back in the days of the April Fools predictions I correctly guessed Jack and Daniel as competitors-2/5. Two of my other choices were delayed until '03 and the last, Rockwell, got lost in the annually worsening December glut.
Who Got Robbed?
My ballot includes Hugh Grant and Campbell Scott, two actors who did their finest work ever. Particulary in Campbell's case it's a travesty. He came out of the gate with the NBR for best actor and quickly fell completely below the radar. Too bad, because it's a brilliant, inspired star turn (better than most nominated) in an underseen flick.
Which Film Clips Should Oscar Show? Send Your Suggestions!
In the car discussing the shotgun wound -Edward

"She thinks I'm fat" -Ted

Technology vs. Horse -Rachel
Limping in the office with a cane -Ted
The flag scene (a given) -David

Killing the elected official -Nate
On top of the RV with figurines talking to his wife -Ted

Speech at reception -Nate
Who Might Think About Writing a Speech
It's a two man race... Despite Jack being the early leader and Globe winner -Daniel Day-Lewis's SAG win puts him firmly in the lead. When you factor in the amount of money Miramax is spending to build shrines to DDL on television, it seems close to a done deal. Adrien Brody won't be taking home the golden boy but I'd wager that he's pulling down a lot of votes anyway.
Who Should Win?
I loved Jack's work but I give Adrien a few extra points in the end.

 

 

PreNomination Predictions and Notes