OSCAR speculation

Oscar Speculation
Best Actor
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Final Predictions 02/09/03

Days until the OSCAR Nominations Are Announced. There can be only 5.
Days until OSCAR NIGHT When Halle Berry Hands the Statue to One of the Following 13 Men.

The Predicted Shortlist 02/09 Final Predictions NICHOLSON, DAY-LEWIS, BRODY, GERE, and CAINE in the fifth slot to be possibily replaced by CAGE. If there's a surprise nominee it'll be HUGH GRANT. SAG NOMINATIONS Brody, Cage, Day-Lewis, Gere, and Nicholson Precursor Awards: GOLDEN GLOBE (DRAMA), DALLAS FORT-WORTH, LOS ANGELES (tie) WASHINGTON D.C. Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt TORONTO Nicolas Cage, Adaptation SAN FRANCISCO Michael Caine, The Quiet American NATIONAL BOARD OF REVIEW Campbell Scott, Roger Dodger BFCA, CHICAGO, ONLINE FILM CRITICS, LAS VEGAS, KANSAS, SEFCA, SEATTLE, SAN DIEGO, NEW YORK, LOS ANGELES (tie) Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York BOSTON & NATIONAL SOCIETY OF FILM CRITICS Adrien Brody, The Pianist GOLDEN GLOBE (COMEDY) Richard Gere, Chicago Key: Green = Go. You're all set. Yellow = Proceed with Caution Red = Stop. Are you sure? fj
LOCK	LOCK	LOCK	IFFY	PROBABLE

Jack Nicholson ABOUT SCHMIDT New Line 11 noms / 3 wins	Daniel Day-Lewis GANGS OF NEW YORK Miramax 2 noms / 1 win	Adrien Brody THE PIANIST Focus Features never nominated	Michael Caine THE QUIET AMERICAN Miramax 2 wins	Richard Gere CHICAGO (Miramax) never nominated
Precursor Awards: GLOBE, WASHINGTON D.C., Dallas, & LAFCA win (tie) * Chicago, BFCA, OFCS, GS, Nominee	Precursor Awards: BFCA, LAFCA win (tie), Las Vegas, SEFCA, Seattle, OFCS, San Diego, NY Winner * Chicago, BFCA, GG, GS Nominee	Precursor Awards: Boston & NSFC Winner * Chicago, OFCS & GG Nominee	Precursor Awards: San Francisco Winner * GG & GS Nominee	Precursor Awards: GG Winner * SAG Nominee




REVIEW Jack is revelatory as a senior citizen grieving the loss of his relevance...and the film is impressing critics and audiences. Can he win a fourth time? Yes, I think so. We'll see in March but I think so. I do think so.	The return of one of our most sensational actors -brought out of retirement by Scorsese. Can he win a second time? If the film is shortlisted, then yes, he most certainly can. Unless the Academy wants Jack to be up there again.	REVIEW Brody really delivers in the leading role -it's all in his expressive eyes. He's been a well-known secret in Hollywood for a long time. Could this be his breakthrough? Weak spot: His character is largely inert. Not the typical kind of Best Actor role.	REVIEW If there's a chance, Michael Caine will usually be there on the shortlist. It's one of his better turns (and I didn't even like the film.) Weak spot: Jack and Daniel are hogging the pre-awards. Miramax isn't pushing this film much still.	While I initially considered this an extreme longshot at best, his recent Globe triumph and subsequent SAG nod have convinced me that they really love Chicago. Weak spot: Is the film a true nomination sweeper -or is there some hype amid the real buzz?

Alternates What was once a dozen person race is now seemingly close to a six person race for the shortlist. * However, a longshot nominee is considerably more probable here than over in best actress, because there are more competitors here and vote totals could be close.
	Nicolas Cage ADAPTATION Columbia 1 nom / 1 win
	Precursor Awards: Toronto Winner * Chicago, SAG, OFCS, GS & GG Nominee
	His best work since Leaving Las Vegas. He nails the dual role. It's two great performances in one. Weak spot: Ready to proclaim him a serious actor again? In a comedy?

Long Shots If there's a significant surprise it'll be one of these four men. But I don't think there will be. Do you?

Leonardo DiCaprio CATCH ME IF YOU CAN Dreamworks 1 nom / 0 wins	Sam Rockwell CONFESSIONS OF A DANGEROUS MIND (Miramax) never nominated	Hugh Grant ABOUT A BOY (Universal) never nominated	Campbell Scott ROGER DODGER never nominated	Robin Williams ONE HOUR PHOTO (Miramax) 4 nom / 1 win
Precursor Awards: GG Nominee	Precursor Awards: None.	Precursor Awards: Chicago, GG & GS Nominee	Precursor Awards: NBR Winner	Precursor Awards: GS, OFCS, & BFCA Nominee
He's got two major films keeping the spotlight on him. He's charming and touching in the film. Weak spot: DiCaprio has been a bit sour grape-ish about the Oscars. Will they want to applaud his comeback or not?	People still act like this is possible and I suppose given the late opening and the fact that he DID generate talk during the Globes where he was a non-presence... Weak spot: Too little of a push.	His best work ever. Weak spot: It's difficult to see this happening now that he didn't win the Globe for comedy and missed the SAG nod. Great performance, though...it's tough to see him not hitting at least some ballots.	The most unjustly ignored performance of the year, I'd say. Weak spot: You'd think the son of Hollywood thing would help here as it usually does for great actors...but it doesn't seem to be here. Too small a film, I suppose.	He now feels like the extreme longshot I always thought he was. But the Broadcast Film Critics choices which usually line up with Oscar, threw me. Weak spot: MIA in all other precursors including mainstream lovin' SAG.

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