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Oscar Time! Best Supporting Actor
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Updates 03/24/03

Early frontrunner CHRIS COOPER grabs Oscar gold. Well deserved!

PreCeremony Thought:
Christopher Walken won't make this an easy win for the longtime frontrunner, Chris Cooper.
But I expect that he'll still, in the end, get the gold for his unusual star turn.

Chris Cooper
ADAPTATION
Ed Harris
THE HOURS
Paul Newman
ROAD TO PERDITION
John C Reilly
CHICAGO
Christopher Walken
CATCH ME IF YOU CAN
first nomination!
4 noms / 0 wins
9 noms / 1 win
first nomination!
2 noms / 1 win
Precursor Awards:
GLOBE, BFCA, NBR, LA, San Francisco, Toronto, Florida, Seattle, San Diego
Role:
Horticulturist John LaRoche
Precursor Awards:
None.
Role:
Richard, a dying hallucinatory poet, soon to be honored with a Caruthers Award at a friend's party.
Precursor Awards:
None.
Role:
A mob boss who must turn own his own employee, who has been like a son to him.
Precursor Awards:
Las Vegas
Role:
Amos Hart (Mr. Cellophane) the dimwitted cuckolded husband of Roxie.
Precursor Awards:
SAG, NSFC, & BAFTA
Role:
Tax evader and broke divorced father of a con-artist on the run from the FBI.
How'd They Get Nominated?
65% Performance. It's a doozy of a role but it could have gone either direction, really.
21% The role. "That's how much Fuck Fish" A great one if you know what to do with it.
9% Career achievement.
4% Look, Ma, no teeth!
1%
American Beauty leftover goodwill.
44% Crucial connective role in Best Pic nominee.
22%
Gay characters just the way the Academy likes them: Dying of AIDS!
18 % Oscarbait actor who can't seem to catch anything on his hook.
10% Sharing scenes with Meryl Streep.
6%
Performance.
50% He's the legendary Paul Newman, isn't he?
25% Performance. Imbues the film with the gravitas that it thinks it has throughout.
12% Early frontrunner.
10%"There are only murderers here."
3% Conrad Hall's cinematography adds to his imposing majesty.
55% Conscience role in sweeping frontrunner for best picture.
30 % Gangs of New York. The Hours. The Good Girl. Having a Jim Broadbent sort of year with roles in several high profile films and three best pic nominees.
13% Wow. He can sing!
2% Performance.
61% Timing and role: Playing highly likeable character in mainstream flick that was a Dec' hit.
25% Performance. Against type as he usually plays shady men.
13% Highly respected actor with last Oscar attention 3 decades back.
1% That Weapon of Choice video.
How'd I do?
I scored 3/5 . I missed Reilly's Mr Cellophane and Harris's dying gay man (what was I thinking...more on this below) in favor of Molina which wasn't a stupid guess considering how well Frida performed overall and Dennis Quaid who was considered a virtual lock. Back in the days of the April Fools predictions I correctly guessed Harris and Newman as shortlisters for a respectable 2/5. Two of my other choices were almost rans who I stuck with 'til the end, Quaid and Molina. The fifth was the strangely never in the running Jim Broadbent from Gangs of New York.
Who Got Robbed?
My ballot is completely different than Oscar's aside from Chris Cooper. Mine includes Dennis Quaid and it's a rather telling travesty that Oscar didn't nominate him. He had all the elements in place for a nomination. A multiple nominee film, a role that was practically a lead, several precursor awards (second only to Cooper) , plus Hollywood's favorite story: a huge comeback. Quaid kicked off the year with a big box office hit The Rookie and ended it with critical acclaim (and awards). What went wrong? One can only assume the worst. Now Quaid isn't gay of course but his character was. Maybe they would have liked him better had he been dying of AIDS? Just thinking aloud. This is all to reminiscent of the Oscar race in 1997 when Rupert Everett, considered a virtual lock, was also shut out for playing a gay man who was happy and wasn't dying of AIDS. Quaid's character Frank Whitaker wasn't happy by any stretch of the imagination but he was sexually active, healthy as a horse, and seeking self actualization as opposed to victimhood. Naughty naughty. Doesn't he know his place? Oscar only likes their gays as victims (As Good As It Gets) drag queens (Kiss of the Spider-Woman) or dying of AIDS (Philadelphia, Before Night Falls, etc...) Pretty disgusting, no?
Which Film Clips Should Oscar Show? Send Your Suggestions!
Taking notes: Delusions of grandeur -Ryan

"F*** Fish" -James
In the window -James
"I'm glad it was you" -David

Talking to Sullivan in the Church basement -Cedric
"I'm gonna be a father?" -David

"Mr Cellophane" ending in "Yeah, I'm still here". Aw, bless -Rachel

Explaining to Billy Flynn where he got the money -James

Eating in the restaurant with his son -Ted

'Where you goin' Frank?' -Ryan

'Two mice fell in a bucket of cream' -Rachel

Who Might Think About Writing a Speech
Post SAG: I guess it's a two man race after all. Walken has been gaining but I still think Cooper will eventually take it.

Pre-SAG I wrote:
With his only real competitioin (that'd be Dennis Quaid) egregiously snubbed and out of the running, Chris Cooper can sit back and relax because there's no way he isn't winning. It's the surest thing going for Oscar night...he's like the Jennifer Connelly of 2002.
Who Should Win?
Chris Cooper. Everyone knows the performance is great. Even me. I don't think it's soooo much better than everyone else's that he deserved such a sweep of critics awards but of the performances that managed to snag nominations, it stands head and shoulders above.The only one remotely comparable in overall impact and quality is Paul Newman. My MUCH DIFFERENT ballot is here.

 

 

PreNomination Predictions and Notes