OSCAR speculation

Kathy Bates ABOUT SCHMIDT	Queen Latifah CHICAGO	Julianne Moore THE HOURS	Meryl Streep ADAPTATION	Catherine Zeta-Jones CHICAGO

*3 noms / 1 win*	*first nomination!*	*4 noms / 0 wins*	*13 noms / 2 wins*	*first nomination!*
Precursor Awards: Dallas, NBR, LA Role: Bohemian divorcee Roberta, who's really really proud of her son.	Precursor Awards: None. Role: Prison matron Mama Morton, who believes in quid pro quo, or 'tit for tat'	Precursor Awards: LA (Shared w/ role in Far From Heaven) Role: Laura Brown, miserable housewife and mother.	Precursor Awards: Cesar "Lifetime Achievement", GLOBE, Cinemarati, Florida, Chicago, SEFCA Role: Susan Orlean, a New Yorker writer (or a fiction version of...)	Precursor Awards: SAG, BFCA, & BAFTA Role: Velma Kelly -singer, dancer, jazz killer. On trial for a double homicide.
How'd They Get Nominated?
33 % Naked in a hottub! 31 % Giving Jack a run for his money. Not so easy to do. 23 % The supporting categories are the only place Oscar digs comedic work. 11 % Performance. 2 % Enthusiasm and respect towards industry awards in general.	45 % Frontrunner film. 35 % "When You're Good To Mama" 12 % Well loved crossover star - exceedingly charismatic and relaxed onscreen. 6 % The supporting categories are the only place Oscar digs comedic work. 2 % Performance.	51 % In Best Pic that's dependent on its acting. 19 % Performance. 'Come to Bed Laura Brown'. Nobody does existentially lost like Julianne. 11% Far From Heaven 9% She's Julianne. 8% Hotness, stardom, and glamour in real life. 2% Old age makeup !	41% Performance -a dramatic queen takes on comedic change of pace. 20% Dial tone. 20% This is Mery Streep we're talking about, OK? 8% The Hours 5% Welcome back 3% The Golden Globe. 2% Hotness and stardom in real life. 1% SAG slip up.	40% Performance. Ready willing and able to knock her role out of the park. Give the film the "oomph" it coasts on. 34% Frontrunner film. 23 % Hotness, stardom, and glamour in real life. 2 % Hollywood royalty by way of marriage. 1 % Just miss for Traffic. It's time.
How'd I do?
I scored 5/5 here but I'm very sad that I did. This race was wide open for a while. And the precursor awards were spread out among 12 possible nominees, only a third of which made this shortlist. Back in the days of my annual April Fools predictions I correctly foresaw Bates, Latifah, and Moore for a staggering (not easy to do in the supporting categories) 3/5. My two other premonitions were Hope Davis who never got attention for About Schmidt and Zellweger for White Oleander a film which obviously wasn't loved by Oscar.
Who Got Robbed?
My ballot includes Michelle Pfeiffer and any sensible ballot would. She gave one of the best performances of the year, in any category, as the murderous and supremely self absorbed Ingrid Magnussen in the underperforming White Oleander. That they left her out can be attributed to four separate blunders: 1) Warner Bros' weak Oscar campaigning. Instead of focusing on Michelle's role in White Oleander (which -let's be honest was just about their only possible nomination) they spread support across films like Blood Work and Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood -films that never had a shot to begin with. 2) The lack of imagination on the part of Oscar voters who, when in doubt, invariably select actors from the frontrunners for best picture. 3) Pfeiffer's own nonchalance about her campaign way back in October with comments saying they'd 'never nominate me because I look too pretty in prison' (not a way to kick off a campaign). and 4) The Miramax slaves at the Hollywood Foreign Press Association who set the tone every year about who and which films will get serious awards play. Academy voters rarely think to disagree with them. And, maybe I was just imagining it, but it seems like once they passed her up for a Globe nod that the campaign died altogether.
Which Film Clips Should Oscar Show? Send Your Suggestions!
"I'm a sexual person" -Jesse The breastfeeding monologue -Ryan	Mama tells off the prisoners "don't shoot your fat ass mouths off to me" -Wayne 'You're praying to the wrong people' -Ted	'Come to bed, Laura Brown' Sitting there, completely lost -Carrie The kiss -David 'Otherwise he won't know we love him?' -Ted	He touches her hair. "I washed it this morning" -Jesse Dial tone -James	"I Can't Do It Alone" -Wayne "I didn't do it. But if I'd done it.." -Carrie "All That Jazz" -Ted Getting that second spotlight -Nate
Who Might Think About Writing a Speech
SAG's choice of CATHERINE ZETA-JONES seems to indicate that she was stronger going into this race than I imagined. My Pre-SAG feeling was different. I wrote: Many people are calling this the year's most competitive race but I think we might be fooling ourselves. I think Best Actor is the most competitive. It seemed locked up for Jack until the AMPAS voting body showed little overall love for Schmidt. Supporting Actress is also a three way race with Streep, Zeta-Jones, and Moore duking it out. Streep has the Globe win and an against-type turn in her favor. Zeta-Jones has the frontrunner picture and her applaudable song and dance skills in her corner. But the winner is going to be Julianne Moore for The Hours. Two nominations in one year? They aren't going to overlook her. People usually win when they're up for two. But I'm a little depressed about this as her work in The Hours is one of her most uninspired performances. I'd place it well below (take a breath) Boogie Nights, Safe, Vanya on 42nd Street, The End of the Affair, Far From Heaven, and Magnolia (you can exhale now) -so my point is rather like the William Goldman thing with Scorsese. Do you really want to give this genius talent an Oscar for a mediocre effort? It just strikes me as wrong. Especially when you have the opportunity to reward her this very year for a performance that actually deserves to be commemorated with an Oscar. *All that said I do realize that a mediocre effort from Moore is still better than most actors are capable of so I'm not dissing her. Just complaining about the Academy's tendency to reward people for the wrong films. And I've also been told by more than one reader that "an Oscar is an Oscar" and, yeah, I'd love to see Moore have one. Of course I would. I just want the Academy to make the honorable and artistically sound choice here and vote for her to win the lead awards.
*Who Should* Win?**
I'd be fine with a win for either Streep (revelatory in Adaptation and the best she's been in well over a decade) or Zeta-Jones (So much better than she's ever been that she must have been sleepwalking through those other pictures) for her ferocious star turn.

PreNomination Predictions and Notes