OSCAR speculation

PICTURE
CHICAGO
Miramax
THE HOURS
Paramount
THE PIANIST
Focus
TWO TOWERS
New Line
GANGS OF NEW YORK
Miramax

DIRECTOR
SCORSESE
Gangs of New York
MARSHALL
Chicago
DALDRY
The Hours
POLANSKI
The Pianist
ALMODOVAR
Talk to Her

ACTOR
NICHOLSON
About Schmidt
DAY-LEWIS
Gangs of New York
BRODY
The Pianist
CAGE
Adaptation
CAINE
The Quiet American

ACTRESS
KIDMAN
The Hours
LANE
Unfaithful
MOORE
Far From Heaven
HAYEK
Frida
ZELLWEGER
Chicago

My Prediction Rate On The Big Night

Right.
Still, it was closer than we all thought with The Pianist probably a very few votes away. The producers of Chicago were obviously sweating it out at the last second.

Wrong.
I followed the DGA leader Rob Marshall. If this year's Oscars proved anything it's that the precursors may be eeroding in their prediction capabilities.

Wrong.
(But I'm so pleased!)
I went with the SAG leader DD-L. I wanted to go with Brody but I chickened out. Silly me. I'm usually so good about brave predictions.

Right.
In the end, it's rather obvious that this is a continuation of last year's Nicole fervor. Poor Julianne though. The best performance of the year in any category was passed over.

My Nomination Prediction Rate:

4/5

4/5
(But I got Pedro !!!)

4/5

5/5

S. ACTOR
COOPER
Adaptation
REILLY
Chicago
NEWMAN
Road to Perdition
HARRIS
The Hours
WALKEN
Catch Me If You Can

S. ACTRESS
BATES
About Schmidt
STREEP
Adaptation
ZETA-JONES
Chicago
MOORE
The Hours
QUEEN LATIFAH
Chicago

ORIGINAL
MY BIG FAT GREEK...
Vardalos
FAR FROM HEAVEN
Haynes
TALK TO HER
Almodovar
Y TU MAMA TAMBIEN
Cuaron & Cuaron
GANGS OF NY
Cocks, Zaillian

ADAPTED
ADAPTATION
Kauffman x 2
ABOUT A BOY
Hedges, Weitz, Weitz
THE HOURS
Hare
CHICAGO
Condon
THE PIANIST
Harwood

My Prediction Rate On The Big Night

Right.
Cooper was the early leader. SAG suggested that Walken was gaining, but I figured this was Adaptation's to lose. With three acting nominations... it was obviously well regarded.

Right.
I was sweating this out. CZJ's obvious lust for a statuette of her own had me worried to see her crumble in a loss. Good for the Academy for recognizing which performance in Chicago was award worthy.

Wrong.
I'm assumed that that popular sitcom would benefit from an art film vote split between 3 of the most acclaimed films of the year. I'm SO pleased. Go Pedro! My choice as well.

Wrong.
I'm still surprised that The Pianist, possibly the least buzzed of the nominees here managed to nab this from the literary pedigree of The Hours.

My Prediction Rate:

3/5

5/5

4/5
(But got both foreign!)

4/5

CINEMA...
CHICAGO
FAR FROM HEAVEN
GANGS OF NEW YORK
THE PIANIST
ROAD TO PERDITION

ART DIR.
CHICAGO
FRIDA
GANGS OF NEW YORK
THE TWO TOWERS
ROAD TO PERDITION

COSTUME
CHICAGO
FRIDA
GANGS OF NEW YORK
THE HOURS
THE PIANIST

EDITING
CHICAGO
GANGS OF NEW YORK
THE HOURS
THE TWO TOWERS
THE PIANIST

My Prediction Rate On The Big Night

Right.
Respect for the work, the frameable stills (well showcased in a ubiquitous FYC campaign) and his passing nabbed him the award posthumously.

Wrong.
I'm still scratching my head on this one. This was one of the earliest awards so I assumed this meant Chicago was sweeping. How else did they win this particular category?

Right.
Cooper was the early leader. SAG suggested that Walken was gaining, but I figured this was Adaptation's to lose. With three acting nominations... it was obviously well regarded.

Right.
Cooper was the early leader. SAG suggested that Walken was gaining, but I figured this was Adaptation's to lose. With three acting nominations... it was obviously well regarded.

My Nomination Prediction Rate:

4/5

3/5

4/5

4/5

SCORE
CATCH ME IF YOU...
FAR FROM HEAVEN
FRIDA
THE HOURS
ROAD TO PERDITION

FOREIGN
CHINA -Hero
FINLAND -The Man Without a Past
GERMANY -Nowhere in Africa
MEXICO -The Crime of Father Amaro
NETHERLANDS -Zus & Zo

SOUND
CHICAGO
GANGS OF NEW YORK
THE TWO TOWERS
ROAD TO PERDITION
SPIDER-MAN

SONG
8 MILE -"Lose Yourself"
CHICAGO -"I Move On"
FRIDA -"Burn It Blue"
GANGS OF NEW YORK -"The Hands That Built America"
WILD THORNBERRYS "Father and Daughter"

My Prediction Rate On The Big Night

Wrong.
One of the great travesties of the night. No offense to Elliott Goldenthal but Far From Heaven has one of the great scores of all time. No joke.

Right.
The obvious frontrunner since it's the most Oscar like and the year's heavily buzzed foreign entries (Y Tu Mama and Talk To Her ) weren't eligible

Right.
I figured the fact that it was a musical and the fact that it was the leader going in would give it this statue. I would have been very surprised to see a loss here.

Wrong.
Who'da thunk out? I'm still surprised. I don't know why though. Eminem has some sort of wierd magnetic effect on awards. He wins everything.

My Nomination Prediction Rate:

4/5

2/5

4/5

4/5

VISUAL fx
SPIDER-MAN
SW EPISODE 2
TWO TOWERS

MAKEUP
FRIDA
TIME MACHINE

SOUND Editing
MINORITY REPORT
ROAD TO PERDITION
TWO TOWERS

ANIMATED
ICE AGE
LILO & STITCH
SPIRIT
SPIRITED AWAY
TREASURE PLANET

My Prediction Rate On The Big Night

Right.
Yay for Peter Jackson's great technical team. Too bad that's the only type of award that the film seems able to win.

Right.
After the bizarre bakeoff / nomination chain of events here this was always a no brainer. Probably the easiest win of the whole night.

Right.
Yay for Peter Jackson's great technical team. Too bad that's the only type of award the film seems able to win.

Wrong.
(And I'm thrilled!)
The only way Spirited Away was going to win was if they had to watch all five to vote. I was over the moon. Well deserved!

My Nomination Prediction Rate

2/3

2/2

2/3

4/5

DOCU SHORT
The Collector of Bedford Street

Mighty Times: The Legacy of Rosa Parks

Twin Towers

Why Can't We Be a Family Again?

DOCU
FEATURE
BOWLING FOR COLUMBINE

DAUGHTER FROM DANANG

PRISONER OF PARADISE

SPELLBOUND

WINGED MIGRATION

ANIMATED
SHORT
The Cathedral

The ChubbChubbs!

Das Rad

Mike's New Car

Mt. Head

LIVE ACTION
SHORT
Fait D'Hiver

I'll Wait for the Next One... (J'Attendrai Le Suivant...)

Inja (Dog)

Johnny Flynton

This Charming Man (Der Er En Yndig Mand)

My Prediction Rate On The Big Night

Right.
Another easy pick. A film about 9/11 was bound to gather lots of votes. Unfortunately I haven't seen any of these.

Wrong.
I thought the AMPAS voters would chicken out of going all the way with Michael Moore. Good for them that they did!

Right.
This was an easy one to predict after seeing all of the nominees. It's the funniest and the most modern in its animation.

Wrong.
This was my favorite of the nominees but I thought it too foreign to take the prize. Good for Denmark!

~Win Prediction Summary~
My predictions and reactions.
CHICAGO -6 in a mini sweep. I don't foresee less than 5 or more than 8. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
Well, I was right about the number it would win. And only one Oscar off on which awards.

THE HOURS / GANGS OF NEW YORK -3 Oscars each...
Way off here. Support for both of these pictures (which were divisive from the getgo... proved to only be in nomination form. Gangs went 0 for 10 to make it one of the biggest ever losers. The Hours went 1 for 9. Ouch.
THE TWO TOWERS -2 Oscars...
I was right on target here. But those were easy calls.

Going home emptyhanded:
THE PIANIST/ FAR FROM HEAVEN
Way, way off on the late surging 3 time big eight winner The Pianist. But sadly the year's best film, Far From Heaven was expectedly shut out.

~Nomination Tally~
Just as most predicted, this is the Miramax show with approximately half of the nominations

13 nominations
CHICAGO (Miramax)

10 nominations
GANGS OF NEW YORK (Miramax)

9 nominations
THE HOURS (Paramount/Miramax)


PICTURE CHICAGO Miramax THE HOURS Paramount THE PIANIST Focus TWO TOWERS New Line GANGS OF NEW YORK Miramax	DIRECTOR SCORSESE Gangs of New York MARSHALL Chicago DALDRY The Hours POLANSKI The Pianist ALMODOVAR Talk to Her	ACTOR NICHOLSON About Schmidt DAY-LEWIS Gangs of New York BRODY The Pianist CAGE Adaptation CAINE The Quiet American	ACTRESS KIDMAN The Hours LANE Unfaithful MOORE Far From Heaven HAYEK Frida ZELLWEGER Chicago
My Prediction Rate On The Big Night
Right. Still, it was closer than we all thought with The Pianist probably a very few votes away. The producers of Chicago were obviously sweating it out at the last second.	Wrong. I followed the DGA leader Rob Marshall. If this year's Oscars proved anything it's that the precursors may be eeroding in their prediction capabilities.	Wrong. (But I'm so pleased!) I went with the SAG leader DD-L. I wanted to go with Brody but I chickened out. Silly me. I'm usually so good about brave predictions.	Right. In the end, it's rather obvious that this is a continuation of last year's Nicole fervor. Poor Julianne though. The best performance of the year in any category was passed over.
My Nomination Prediction Rate:
4/5	4/5 (But I got Pedro !!!)	4/5	5/5


S. ACTOR COOPER Adaptation REILLY Chicago NEWMAN Road to Perdition HARRIS The Hours WALKEN Catch Me If You Can	S. ACTRESS BATES About Schmidt STREEP Adaptation ZETA-JONES Chicago MOORE The Hours QUEEN LATIFAH Chicago	ORIGINAL MY BIG FAT GREEK... Vardalos FAR FROM HEAVEN Haynes TALK TO HER Almodovar Y TU MAMA TAMBIEN Cuaron & Cuaron GANGS OF NY Cocks, Zaillian	ADAPTED ADAPTATION Kauffman x 2 ABOUT A BOY Hedges, Weitz, Weitz THE HOURS Hare CHICAGO Condon THE PIANIST Harwood
My Prediction Rate On The Big Night
Right. Cooper was the early leader. SAG suggested that Walken was gaining, but I figured this was Adaptation's to lose. With three acting nominations... it was obviously well regarded.	Right. I was sweating this out. CZJ's obvious lust for a statuette of her own had me worried to see her crumble in a loss. Good for the Academy for recognizing which performance in Chicago was award worthy.	Wrong. I'm assumed that that popular sitcom would benefit from an art film vote split between 3 of the most acclaimed films of the year. I'm SO pleased. Go Pedro! My choice as well.	Wrong. I'm still surprised that The Pianist, possibly the least buzzed of the nominees here managed to nab this from the literary pedigree of The Hours.
My Prediction Rate:
3/5	5/5	4/5 (But got both foreign!)	4/5


CINEMA... CHICAGO FAR FROM HEAVEN GANGS OF NEW YORK THE PIANIST ROAD TO PERDITION	ART DIR. CHICAGO FRIDA GANGS OF NEW YORK THE TWO TOWERS ROAD TO PERDITION	COSTUME CHICAGO FRIDA GANGS OF NEW YORK THE HOURS THE PIANIST	EDITING CHICAGO GANGS OF NEW YORK THE HOURS THE TWO TOWERS THE PIANIST
My Prediction Rate On The Big Night
Right. Respect for the work, the frameable stills (well showcased in a ubiquitous FYC campaign) and his passing nabbed him the award posthumously.	Wrong. I'm still scratching my head on this one. This was one of the earliest awards so I assumed this meant Chicago was sweeping. How else did they win this particular category?	Right. Cooper was the early leader. SAG suggested that Walken was gaining, but I figured this was Adaptation's to lose. With three acting nominations... it was obviously well regarded.	Right. Cooper was the early leader. SAG suggested that Walken was gaining, but I figured this was Adaptation's to lose. With three acting nominations... it was obviously well regarded.
My Nomination Prediction Rate:
4/5	3/5	4/5	4/5


SCORE CATCH ME IF YOU... FAR FROM HEAVEN FRIDA THE HOURS ROAD TO PERDITION	FOREIGN CHINA -Hero FINLAND -The Man Without a Past GERMANY -Nowhere in Africa MEXICO -The Crime of Father Amaro NETHERLANDS -Zus & Zo	SOUND CHICAGO GANGS OF NEW YORK THE TWO TOWERS ROAD TO PERDITION SPIDER-MAN	SONG 8 MILE -"Lose Yourself" CHICAGO -"I Move On" FRIDA -"Burn It Blue" GANGS OF NEW YORK -"The Hands That Built America" WILD THORNBERRYS "Father and Daughter"
My Prediction Rate On The Big Night
Wrong. One of the great travesties of the night. No offense to Elliott Goldenthal but Far From Heaven has one of the great scores of all time. No joke.	Right. The obvious frontrunner since it's the most Oscar like and the year's heavily buzzed foreign entries (Y Tu Mama and Talk To Her ) weren't eligible	Right. I figured the fact that it was a musical and the fact that it was the leader going in would give it this statue. I would have been very surprised to see a loss here.	Wrong. Who'da thunk out? I'm still surprised. I don't know why though. Eminem has some sort of wierd magnetic effect on awards. He wins everything.
My Nomination Prediction Rate:
4/5	2/5	4/5	4/5


VISUAL fx SPIDER-MAN SW EPISODE 2 TWO TOWERS	MAKEUP FRIDA TIME MACHINE	SOUND Editing MINORITY REPORT ROAD TO PERDITION TWO TOWERS	ANIMATED ICE AGE LILO & STITCH SPIRIT SPIRITED AWAY TREASURE PLANET
My Prediction Rate On The Big Night
Right. Yay for Peter Jackson's great technical team. Too bad that's the only type of award that the film seems able to win.	Right. After the bizarre bakeoff / nomination chain of events here this was always a no brainer. Probably the easiest win of the whole night.	Right. Yay for Peter Jackson's great technical team. Too bad that's the only type of award the film seems able to win.	Wrong. (And I'm thrilled!) The only way Spirited Away was going to win was if they had to watch all five to vote. I was over the moon. Well deserved!
My Nomination Prediction Rate
2/3	2/2	2/3	4/5


DOCU SHORT The Collector of Bedford Street Mighty Times: The Legacy of Rosa Parks Twin Towers Why Can't We Be a Family Again?	DOCU FEATURE BOWLING FOR COLUMBINE DAUGHTER FROM DANANG PRISONER OF PARADISE SPELLBOUND WINGED MIGRATION	ANIMATED SHORT The Cathedral The ChubbChubbs! Das Rad Mike's New Car Mt. Head	LIVE ACTION SHORT Fait D'Hiver I'll Wait for the Next One... (J'Attendrai Le Suivant...) Inja (Dog) Johnny Flynton This Charming Man (Der Er En Yndig Mand)
My Prediction Rate On The Big Night
Right. Another easy pick. A film about 9/11 was bound to gather lots of votes. Unfortunately I haven't seen any of these.	Wrong. I thought the AMPAS voters would chicken out of going all the way with Michael Moore. Good for them that they did!	Right. This was an easy one to predict after seeing all of the nominees. It's the funniest and the most modern in its animation.	Wrong. This was my favorite of the nominees but I thought it too foreign to take the prize. Good for Denmark!