OSCAR speculation

Keisha Castle-Hughes WHALE RIDER	Diane Keaton SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE	Samantha Morton IN AMERICA	Charlize Theron MONSTER	Naomi Watts 21 GRAMS

first nomination!	4 noms / 1 win	2 noms / 0 wins	first nom & first win	first nomination!
Precursor Awards: BFCA (Youth Award), Chicago (Most Promising) Role: Future chief who must confront generations of patriachy and tradition to assume her destined role.	Precursor Awards: NBR, Golden Globe, Golden Satellite Role: Erica Beney, playwright who rediscovers love and heartbreak late in life.	Precursor Awards: * Toronto (for Morvern Callar) Role:* Irish immigrant trying to help her husband through the loss of their son and mother her young girls.	Precursor Awards: SAG, NSFC, Dallas, OFCS, San Francisco, Chicago, Vancouver, Golden Globe, Golden Satellite, NBR (Breakthru) Role: Aileen Wournos, part time hooker, fashion victim, and executed killer.	Precursor Awards: LAFCA, OFCS, DC, San Diego, Florida, Phoenix, SEFCA Role: Christine, former drug and party girl, grieving the loss of her young children and husband.
How'd They Get Nominated?
39 % The scene in which her grandfather doesn't show. It's a weep fest. 36% Surprise attack -the performance. Keisha carries a movie with grace and w/out child actor affectations. 19 % "Thank heaven for little girls" Oscar loves them. If they're nom'ed they often win. 4% The film had a long and successful run. 2% Cute as a button --the other lauded teens (Scarlett & Evan) had complex but less "likeable" characters.	50 % She's Diane Keaton. With that comes a great deal of la-di-da nostalgia. Oscar loves a big comeback and actors who can carry a movie. 30 % A perfect antidote to the poison of truth: That Hollywood doesn't really offer lead roles to women, even women as magical as Diane, once they reach this age. 10 % The nude scene. 9% The performance. Very funny and warm -a perfect role for her. 1% Jack -Hollywood's impish Oscar charm	33% Oscar loves movies about longsuffering wives. She qualifies, here helping her husband through a long battle with grief. 30 % This performance and, I think, a general acknowledgement that she's great in every role. Inarguably she's the real deal in screen acting. 22% Overall warmth toward the film. 15% Fox Searchlight's committed enduring campaign for the family drama.	60% The role. Somehow she found a part with every Oscar bait hook: Weight gain, accent, death, prosthetics, prostitution, a biopic. 20 % The performance -sympathetic and scary. 10 % It was all acting -see, she's still HOT and glamourous and thin. 6% That hyperbolic Roger Ebert review got the ball rolling. 4% Surprise attack: Arm candy makes good and proves her worth after years of "girlfriend" parts. Gotta love that.	39% Performance. Voters love breakdowns, and screaming. Paging Frances Farmer... 20% Acting opposite Penn and Del Toro and still holding focus." Gee, I guess critics were right 10 % ...about that 'Mulholland' snub. Our bad!" 9% Glamor and hotness in real life. Added points for sexy boyfriend & superstar best friend. 6% "It" girl industry status -- in demand. 3% The Aussie heatwave in Hollywood.
Celebrity or Critical Endorsements
Michael Douglas, Clint Eastwood, Julia Roberts			Roger Ebert, Owen Glieberman, Lisa Schwarzbaum
How'd I do in Predictions
My predictions I scored 60% of this category with 3/5 but, my god, this category was a wild ride all awards season. Unpredictable races are always more fun. But this took unpredictable to a whole new level. We talked all awards season about Oscar possibly breaking the record for youngest Best Actress nominee ever. And they did, but not with either of the expected choices: Evan Rachel Wood for Thirteen or Scarlet Johansson for Girl With a Pearl Earring. Instead that record was set by the little unknown who could: Keisha Castle Hughes. I've been puzzled by the hoopla for her for the entire year. And I never saw this coming.Samantha Morton was in my April Fools year in advance predictions. She's the only surviving member of those predictions.
Who Got Robbed
If I had a ballot -Of those who actually had a chance I am of course saddened that Uma Thurman's grand, witty, deeply committed star turn in Kill Bill was overlooked (maybe next year?) and though I'm not shocked I am still disappointed that the great Evan Rachel Wood was passed over for her searing work in Thirteen. I think she is a much worthier candidate than Keisha Castle Hughes (More thoughts on that here). And of course the actress who was snubbed in the rudest way this year is Scarlet Johansson who gave two great performances and was nominated for neither of them.
Which Film Clip Should Oscar Show?
The play. Her grandfather doesn't show. -many readers	Her first date with Keanu: "I'm reeeeeally not." -Nick Jack & Diane making pancakes -Alex The crying montage -many readers "You can't outsmart pain" -Drums	In the hospital telling Johnny he should have left the gate up -Shawn Her confession: Why she can't look in Johnny's eyes. -Moody	"I've been out in the world, Selby, living in it." -Nick The interview -Abhi "People kill each other every day" -Ryan w/ Selby at the bus station -Kirstin The last phone call -Yu "I'm good with the Lord" -Dustin	In the hospital hearing the news of the deaths (sometimes the best acting is in the quiet moments) -Michael "Get the f** out of my house."* -Mike
Who Should Think About Writing A Speech
If the Globes taught us anything, it's that Charlize Theron and Diane Keaton have both already written their speeches. In Diane's case now we just plead with her MEMORIZE IT! It's unbecoming to read onstage --if you're in doubt, please see Jennifer Connelly's tragic Oscar night speech from March 2002. Or better yet, don't. Or if you saw it, burn it to ashes in your memory so as to never suffer through it again. I suppose that Keisha Castle Hughes might want to prepare a speech but youngsters are fun when they speak on the cuff... so perhaps we should let that surprise her as well as us. Samantha Morton & Naomi Watts? Maybe next time...
Who Should Win?
Diane Keaton, who did what only she could possibly do and did it beautifully. Or if that can't be then Charlize Theron who did moving and difficult (if overenthusiastically received) work in Monster.