FINAL PREDICTIONS 01/25

I've replaced EVAN with SCARLETT. In the end, much as I've always loved Evan and feel she's worthy I just can't see Oscar nominating a 16 year old for the lead --they can still honor the youth in film (and young women did have a great year this year) with a Johansson nomination --which would still set a record for youngest best actress nominee. Plus, I feel the film will be the sleeper of nomination morning with 4 other tech nods as well. It makes sense. Plus, as many have remarked it's a "near silent" performance and Oscar loves that. (Griet isn't mute --but you get my point) AND Lions Gate had the advantage over many studios in the fact that they got their screeners out well before the other studios since they weren't involved in the ban. If we see nominations for The Cooler, Girl with a Pearl Earring, and Shattered Glass --I think that's proof positive (as if anyone needed it) that screeners do give films an advantage.

If I'm wrong I'm wrong --but my fellow onliners Nick and Engin have bolstered my confidence that Johansson is going to place here.
But, regardless, of the eventual outcome SCARLET JOHANSSON will be a major story on Oscar nomination morning. Either shut out completely despite a great year,
or a well deserved nomination somewhere OR a double nomination. We shall see.

PREVIOUS (edited) THOUGHTS ON FINAL PREDICTIONS 01/23
There's just no figuring this one out. Compare this for example to last year. There were only 6 women essentially competing for 5 slots. Nobody thought Maggie Gyllenhaal or Isabelle Huppert had a real shot. And even if you include them as long shots... that's still 8 women vs. the 12 still sort of alive this year. With each precursor choosing a different set of five --and the media concentrating on those the precursors haven't chosen...it's been very hard to read. And with the competition all over the place, everyone's votes are siphoned away. Leading one to wonder how many shocks could happen?

In the end I don't really expect to hear Evan Rachel Wood's name called out... although I have faith in UMA. I really do. It's no sure thing but as hunches go, I feel good about it AND it would thrill me. Every once in a while, you know, Oscar owes me for my devotion (ha ha)
The reasons I thinking EVAN still has a shot to make it (or be in sixth place) are three-fold. One) Her co-star is Holly Hunter who, the last time she was nominated, also brought a young performer into the winner's circle with her. Holly is awesome with younger actresses onscreen. Two) The performance warrants it and enough precursors have agreed to give one hope. And Three) I really do not believe Kidman will be nominated. Call me crazy but she missed the SAG and missed out on a BAFTA nomination ---That has to mean something considering BAFTA went crazy in love for Cold Mountain.

Precursors: National Board of Review -DIANE KEATON -Somethings Gotta Give European Film Awards -CHARLOTTE RAMPLING -Swimming Pool New York Film Critics Circle -Hope Davis -The Secret Lives of Dentists/American Splendor Boston Film Critics: Scarlet Johansson -Lost in Translation San Francisco Film Critics Charlize Theron -Monster San Diego Film Critics -Naomi Watts 21 Grams Seattle Film Critics -Hope Davis American Splendor Southeastern Film Critics Naomi Watts 21 Grams Washington DC Film Critics -Naomi Watts 21 Grams National Society of Film Critics -Charlize Theron Monster Florida Film Critics Naomi Watts 21 Grams Las Vegas Film Critics: Charlize Theron -Monster / Dallas Fort Worth Film Critics: Charlize Theron Monster Online Film Critics Society Naomi Watts 21 Grams Kansas Film Critics: Jennifer Connelly -House of Sand and Fog Los Angeles Film Critics Naomi Watts -21 Grams Broadcast Film Critics Association Charlize Theron -Monster Utah Film Critics -Diane Keaton -Somethings Gotta Give Phoenix Film Critics Naomi Watts -21 Grams Cinemarati Uma Thurman -Kill Bill, Volume 1

Final Predicted Nominees - as of 01/25/04 Key: Green = Lock / Yellow =Probable / Red = Who Knows. Vulnerable / Blue = Unlikely If I had a ballot
1 (1)(1)(2)(2)(2)(3)(7)(17) Charlize Theron MONSTER (Dec) never nominated	2 (2)(2)(1)(1)(1)(1)(1)(7) Diane Keaton SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE (Dec) 3 noms / 1 win	3 (3)(3)(7)(10)(6)(8)(4)(3) Naomi Watts 21 GRAMS (Nov) never nominated	4 (4)(4)(6)(9)(13)(18)(20)(-) Uma Thurman KILL BILL, VOL. I (Oct) 1 nom	5 (10)(10)(11)(17)(17)(14)(16) Scarlett Johansson GIRL WITH A PEARL EARRING (Dec) never nominated
wins: NSFC, Dallas, OFCS, NBR (B-Thru), San Francisco noms: SAG, GOLDEN GLOBES, ISA, BFCA & Golden Satellite	wins: NBR, Utah noms: SAG, GOLDEN GLOBES, DC, BFCA & Golden Satellite	wins: LAFCA, OFCS, DC, San Diego, Florida, Phoenix, SEFCA noms: SAG, BAFTA, BFCA, Cinemarati & Golden Satellite	wins: -Cinemarati noms: OFCS, BAFTA, GOLDEN GLOBES, EW (Entertainer of the Year)	wins - noms: GOLDEN GLOBES, BAFTA, Cinemarati, London
Pro: Oscar voters love prosthetics, weight gains, prostitution, real life characters, and glamour girls gone to seed for a role. They also love career makeovers. She's 6 for 6. Secret Weapon: Some people already knew she could act. Con: The film is too small, divisive, and dark for attention elsewhere ... and it's not particularly loved by critics (other than Ebert) so she's on her own.	Pro: Keaton has been up for an Oscar in each decade of her stardom. Could she add one more decade to her run? Advance word is good suggesting its "her film" Secret Weapon: Her particular brand of la-di-da is generating considerable nostalgia and it is GREAT to see her onscreen again carrying an entire film. Con: It's a Nancy Meyer's comedy -is that really Oscarable?	Pro: Requisitely histrionic. Plenty of Oscar clip choices. Tied for first with most precursor awards (w/ Theron) Secret Weapon: Mulholland Drive snub. Acting in the rarified company of DelToro and Penn. The leader in critics awards. Con: Will enough AMPAS members be willing to sit through the grueling, difficult film? That is the real question. Some people feel it's a one note performance.	Pro: Truly outstanding in a difficult role. Some say it's her best performance ever. Secret Weapon: Rough personal year. And that often helps (see also: Nicole Kidman '01) Plus she's working the talk show circuit - it's something of a major comeback & something of a definitive role. All are important things. Con: Action films rarely reap acting nods. Even Crouching Tiger couldn't manage it.	Pro: Raves and nothing but. Film snuck up in December and WILL get some nominations (we shall see how many) it's a very impressive and quiet performance. Secret Weapon: In many ways, it's her year. Plus Griet barely speaks and they love stuff like that. It's a faux mute performance (ha) Con: Battling it out with yourself is not so smart. But with Lost in Translation derailing some of her votes, it's tough to say where or if the Academy will notice her at all.

The Alternates Practically anything could happen this year. Including the fifth slot going to someone in the "out of the race" section below. This category -at nearly every awards groups selections has surprised.
6 (5)(9)(9)(8)(15)(11)(12)(10) Evan Rachel Wood THIRTEEN (Aug) never nominated	7 (7)(8)(5)(6)(14)(12)(12)(8) Cate Blanchett VERONICA GUERIN (Oct) 1 nom	8 (6)(6)(3)(3)(7)(6)(8)(6) Nicole Kidman COLD MOUNTAIN (Dec) 2 noms /1 win
wins: -LAS VEGAS (Youth in Film Award) noms: GOLDEN GLOBES, SAG, DC, Golden Satellite (Shared nom), BFCA (Young Actor)	wins: - noms: GOLDEN GLOBES, DC	wins: - noms: GOLDEN GLOBES, London, BFCA
Pro: Already an immense talent to watch at just 15 years old. Secret Weapon: Can you nominate Holly (likely) without considering nominating Evan? Con: The film may be too small for notice and her character (and performance) to true -and thus unlikeable. They'll have more chances to reward her as she ages.	Pro: She won mostly raves in this Schumacher drugs vs. journalism drama. Secret Weapon: Oscar hat trick: Accent, bio-pic, death. Could be the surprise nominee that everyone in retrospect agrees OF COURSE SHE WAS NOMINATED. Con: The film tanked in a large way. She peaked early.	Pro: She's the reigning champion and a very visible lead in a very visible film. Secret Weapon: Still the media's top show girl. Still often in the news. Con: Zelwegger steals every scene from her and Jude Law gets the bulk of the film's most moving scenes. Everyone agrees it's not close to her best work. And some people really dislike the performance.

The Alternates -Not as Longshot as Usual in a Bizarre Year Practically anything could happen this year. Including the fifth slot going to someone in the "out of the race" section below. This category -at nearly every awards groups selections has surprised.
9 (8)(12)(11)(7)(8)(7)(6)(5) Samantha Morton IN AMERICA (Nov) 1 nom	10 (9)(5)(8)(13)(10)(14)(17) Scarlett Johansson LOST IN TRANSLATION (Sept) never nominated	11 (11) (NEW) Patricia Clarkson THE STATION AGENT (Nov) never nominated	12 (12)(12)(7) (4)(5)(3)(2)(3) Jennifer Connelly HOUSE OF SAND AND FOG (Dec) never nominated
wins: - nominations: -ISA, BFCA, & Golden Satellite	wins: Boston nominations: OFCS, GOLDEN GLOBES, BAFTA, BFCA (Supporting) Cinemarati, & Golden Satellite (Supporting)	wins: -most awards for supporting and shared with Pieces of April NSFC, Florida, NBR, Boston, San Diego (Body of Work) nominations: SAG & Cinemarati (Lead) & Golden Satellite	wins: Kansas nominations: -BFCA
Pro: She's immensely talented and the film is moving. Secret Weapon: Hard to forget in any film she's in -including this one. The intense love people feel for it could yank her in. Con: The film and her role may be too small for her to gain multiple nods. Fox's early waffling on which category to campaign her in wasn't the best thing -nor was her noticeable media absence when compared to other candidates.	Pro: Raves and nothing but. Film doing exceptionally well in precursors. It's an acting duet and her partner is formidable. Could be a Leaving Las Vegas / What's Love Got... (must nominated both people) type of thing. Secret Weapon: In many ways, it's her year. Con: Committing category fraud in a big way -trying to get nominated in supporting despite this being essentially a two person film. As a result I think she'll be left out altogether.	Pro: The greatest supporting actress working got three mentions at SAG -indicating that people have finally realized her worth (about 5 years too late but oh, let's not nitpick.) Secret Weapon: Really three dimensional in this role. If they see it... Con: SAG nominating committee does not have a great overlap with AMPAS members this year. Most attention this year has come (oddly) for her lesser work in Pieces of April.	Pro: Well, they've already shown that they love her tearful self. Secret Weapon: That best actor magic rubbing off from Ben Kingsley Con: Passed over by all of the major precursors. So it looks extremely doubtful for our Jen. Perhaps it's the role? It's not like her character is particularly sympathetic and you know how warm and fuzzy the Oscar voters like it.

 

OUT OF THE RACE BUT THEY DID GET SOME MENTIONS ALONG THE WAY
Helen Mirren (GOLDEN GLOBES, EFA, London, & Golden Satellite)
Jamie Lee Curtis (GOLDEN GLOBES, Cinemarati, Golden Satellite, EW (Great Performances)
Charlotte Rampling (EFA win, London nom)
Hope Davis -American Splendor (NYFCC/Seattle)
Diane Lane -Under the Tuscan Sun (GOLDEN GLOBES, Golden Satellite nom)
Angela Bettis -May (OFCS Nomination)
Zooey Deschanel -All the Real Girls (Cinemarati nom)
COMPLETELY SNUBBED BY EVERY ORGANIZATION
Meg Ryan -In the Cut / Cate Blanchett -The Missing / Gwyneth Paltrow -Sylvia

 

PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS
FINAL January 18th Keaton, Theron, Thurman, Watts, Wood
January 8th Johansson, Keaton,Theron, Thurman, Watts
January 1st Blanchett, Connelly, Keaton, Kidman, Theron
December 22nd Connelly, Keaton, Kidman, Mirren, Theron
December 8th -Blanchett, Connelly, Keaton, Paltrow, Theron
November 19th -Blanchett, Connelly, Keaton, Mirren, Watts
October 13th -Blanchett, Connelly, Mirren, Morton, Watts
July 22nd -Blanchett, Connelly, Kidman, Ryan, Watts
April Fools -Connelly, Kidman, Mirren, Morton, Ryan

Updated 01/11/04
BFCA chooses CHARLIZE THERON which should promptly begin her slow march to the Oscar. (zzzzz. They are so predictable)

Updated 01/08/04
LAFCA picks NAOMI WATTS (god, they're took forever) But I don't think it matters much at this point since (historically speaking)
the majority of the ballots are already turned in by now. My prediction changes are below. I've thought about this a long time and I thought go against the grain and follow buzz. i.e. which performances are people really TALKING about. Not which performances did everyone really always expect to be here. (I'm talking to you Nicole) Who are people talking about in magazines, online, etc...? So the list below is partially for fun and partially because I think the common consensus (nearly always considerd to be in this order: Theron, Keaton, Kidman, Watts, Connelly. Is not going to happen in a tight race like this one. But nevertheless, to prevent angry letters just let it be known that I believe spots #3 through #8 are like a hairwidth difference in voting -so it's sort of like throwing cards into the air and seeing who lands face up. It's no big thing. It's going to be some combo of these first 8 people. Maybe 9 if voters watch their Thirteen screeners. For now, I'm going with a combo that I'd be pretty happy with. Why not think positively, at least for the time being.

It could go any which way.
I don't care what EW's track record is. They aren't going to be 5 for 5 in this crazy crowded category this year.

Updated 01/01/04
I change my mind about this race daily. There's still 12 women who are in play. That's a lot for this late in the nomination game. Usually by the time ballots are out it's closer to 8 real threats -like it is over in Best Actor. Basically 4-9 feel on equally footing for me. Seriously. As do 10-13 as dark horses -because in any race this close with votes distributed all over the place, surprises are most definitely possible. Despite the Globe shut out of Connelly and Watts they do still seem like strong contenders. This is such a nail biter. It's beyond exciting, right? Mirren, despite her film opening seems to not be building ANY buzz. Morton also seems to be falling rapidly in buzz. Surprising but there it is. Building buzz? The only one's currently that have any sort of upward momentum are Watts (critics probably rallying after Globe shut out -LAFCA will tell us how much) and Johansson who is getting increasingly hard to ignore with the success d'estime of LiT and the current hot ticket, Pearl Earring. Scarlett could definitely be the year's surprise.

Updated 12/22
Golden Globe nominations gave a boost to Uma, Evan, Cate, and others. Dealt a blow to Naomi & Jennifer. But the Globes influence will be severely weakened since Oscar voters won't see the Globe ceremony, and the attending celebrities until after they've turned in their nomination ballots. This could potentially mean that BFCA nominees/attendees (Keaton, Theron, Kidman, Connelly, Morton, Wood, and Watts) get a bigger boost than some of the Globe people -if they make a strong impression and enough people watch that show in its first televise year. But it's a new year in many ways. It's tough to say what's going on/what influence precursor awards have this year. One thing is sure: This particular race remains excruciatingly tight. The amount of possible combination seems a bit staggering. Basically I see the difference between the competitors from #4 to #11 as being miniscule. Like a fraction more strength from one to the next. This is a true nail biter. The precursors have been all over the map this year leaving little indication as to which way Oscar will be going.