OSCAR speculation

Cinematography
Who will win? I'm going with Girl with a Pearl Earring at the moment. But honestly, who can see this race clearly? It's perhaps the only true 5 way race in the competition. A case/argument can be made for a win anywhere. City of God and Girl with a Pearl are the most singular acheivements. Cold Mountain has the beauty and scope they like (plus it's a way to reward a film that a lot of them liked -seven nominations, best picture or not, is a lot) Master and Commander and Seabiscuit both have high nomination tallies indicating broad support. My guess is Girl with the spoiler being Seabiscuit ---which is glossy, pretty, saturated, and has had big "look at me -I'm pretty to look at" ads running for months in the trades.

The Nominations
I predicted 3/5 in this category. Missing City of God and Cold Mountain and I must say I'm surprised at the Last Samurai snub. My April Fools (year in advance guesses a year ago were 2/5 seeing only Seabsicuit and Cold Mountain. my personal favorites are here

César Charlone
first nomination!
COLD MOUNTAIN

John Seale
noms / wins
COLD MOUNTAIN

Eduardo Serra
2 noms / 0 wins
GIRL WITH THE PEARL EARRING
(Dec)

Russell Boyd
first nomination!
MASTER AND COMMANDER

John Schwartzman
first nomination!
SEABISCUIT

Precursor Awards
None

Precursor Awards
None

Precursor Awards
LAFCA, San Diego

Precursor Awards
NSFC

Precursor Awards
None

SNUBBED: John Toll's THE LAST SAMURAI work (he's already won twice so I'm sure he's not too hurt / And most egregiously, Robert Richardson's film elevating work on Kill Bill. That's just criminal. Someone should collect someone's f***ing head. And Andrew Lesnie's work on RETURN OF THE KING which won OFCS, Dallas, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Seattle, and Florida film critics awards.

*Film Editing* Who will win? My prediction is City of God but like cinematography, nearly anything is possible here (aside from Cold Mountain which would be a jawdropper, no matter how respected Walter Murch may be) I'm guessing City of God because the work is both technically accomplished and visible in a well regarded film -seems like a magic combo to me. The Spoiler being Jamie Selkirk for his work on the last of the LotR pictures. *The Nominations* I predicted 4/5 in this category. Missing City of God of course. That film came out of nowhere to get 4 nominations. My April Fools guesses a year ago were 2/5 seeing only Seabsicuit and Return of the King (just like in many of the tech categories. My ballot here

Daniel Rezende first nomination! CITY OF GOD	Walter Murch 6 noms / 1 win COLD MOUNTAIN	Jamie Selkirk first nomination! RETURN OF THE KING	Lee Smith first nomination ! MASTER AND COMMANDER	William Goldenberg 2 noms / 0 wins Billy Goldenberg first nomination! SEABISCUIT Universal (July)
Precursor Awards: None.	Precursor Awards: None.	Precursor Awards: Phoenix	Precursor Awards: None.	Precursor Awards: None.

Snubbed: KILL BILL VOL. 1's Sally Menke who won the editing awards from Las Vegas and San Diego, the AMPAS voters didn't recognize her genius.

*Art Direction Nominees* Who will win? If it's not Grant Major's endlessly praiseworthy work on the Lord of the Rings trilogy for which he was unforgiveably shunned last year in favor of Chicago's stages (huh?) and prisons (huh?) Anything else would register as a shock. But because the Academy has been slow to recognize arguably the single greatest of LotR's many great behind the scenes achievements, my spoiler guess would be Seabiscuit (since Oppewall is on her third nomination and has yet to win) *The Nominations* I predicted 5/5 in this category. YOWZA! That is not easy to do in Art Direction. My April Fools guesses a year ago were 2/5 seeing only Seabsicuit and Return of the King. My ballot here

Lily Kilvert first nomination! THE LAST SAMURAI	William Sandell first nomination! MASTER & COMMANDER: The Far Side of the World	Ben Van Os 2 noms / 0 wins GIRL WITH THE PEARL EARRING	Grant Major 3 noms / 0 wins The Lord of the Rings: THE RETURN OF THE KING	Jeanine Claudia Oppewall 3 noms/ 0 wins SEABISCUIT
Lots of people love the art direction on this movie. And Oscar responds to foreign locales and homes. Precursor Awards: None.	One exceedingly handsome and realistic period piece is usually present. Precursor Awards: None.	The film looks great, the environments feel real and I think this film will sneak a few important nods Precursor Awards: None.	Two losses in a row hurt considerably given the gargantuan achievement. Precursor Awards: OFCS, Golden Sattelites, LAFCA, Las Vegas, Phoenix, San Diego	It's historical storyline and handsome production values will place somewhere. Here? Precursor Awards: None.

Major Snubs in this category: The legendary Dante Ferretti who after 7 nominations has still never won for COLD MOUNTAIN -Dante Ferretti / The fun sets of PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN / The well regarded Dennis Gassner's efforts on BIG FISH / and David Wasco whose brilliant design on KILL BILL, VOL I was passed over just like his brilliant design on The Royal Tenenbaums. Guess you need to do a period piece to get a nomination. sigh.

*Visual Effects Nominees* Who will win? I'm going with Return of the King for three for three in this category. If there's a spoiler look for those moonlight men in Pirates and not the mates onboard the Surprise over at Master and Commander. *The NominationsI predicted 3/3* in this category. Not so hard to do I know. My April Fools guesses a year ago were 1/3. My ballot here

MASTER AND COMMANDER	PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN	RETURN OF THE KING
Precursor Awards: Golden Satellites	Precursor Awards: None.	Precursor Awards: OFCS, Phoenix
Snubbed -The Other Eligible Contenders
Hulk / Peter Pan / X-2: X-Men United / Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines

*Make Up Nominees* Who will win? I'm going with Pirates of the Caribbean --just a hunch-- to be one of the three spoilers to Return of the King winning in all 11 categories. *The Nominations* I scored 2/3 in this category missing Master and Commander in favor of Charlize's miraculous transformation in Monster. Silly me. That was CHARLIZE THERON's fault -not the makeup artists (end of sarcasm) I scored a stunning 0/3 a year in advance in this category!

The Lord of the Rings: THE RETURN OF THE KING	MASTER AND COMMANDER: The Far Side of the World	PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN
Precursor Awards Phoenix	Precursor Awards None	Precursor Awards None
SNUBBED
The Other Eligible Contenders that Were Not Selected The Last Samurai / Monster / Peter Pan / Cold Mountain

*Cinematography* Who will win? I'm going with Girl with a Pearl Earring at the moment. But honestly, who can see this race clearly? It's perhaps the only true 5 way race in the competition. A case/argument can be made for a win anywhere. City of God and Girl with a Pearl are the most singular acheivements. Cold Mountain has the beauty and scope they like (plus it's a way to reward a film that a lot of them liked -seven nominations, best picture or not, is a lot) Master and Commander and Seabiscuit both have high nomination tallies indicating broad support. My guess is Girl with the spoiler being Seabiscuit ---which is glossy, pretty, saturated, and has had big "look at me -I'm pretty to look at" ads running for months in the trades. *The Nominations* I predicted 3/5 in this category. Missing City of God and Cold Mountain and I must say I'm surprised at the Last Samurai snub. My April Fools (year in advance guesses a year ago were 2/5 seeing only Seabsicuit and Cold Mountain. my personal favorites are here

César Charlone first nomination! COLD MOUNTAIN	John Seale noms / wins COLD MOUNTAIN	Eduardo Serra 2 noms / 0 wins GIRL WITH THE PEARL EARRING (Dec)	Russell Boyd first nomination! MASTER AND COMMANDER	John Schwartzman first nomination! SEABISCUIT
Precursor Awards None	Precursor Awards None	Precursor Awards LAFCA, San Diego	Precursor Awards NSFC	Precursor Awards None

SNUBBED: John Toll's THE LAST SAMURAI work (he's already won twice so I'm sure he's not too hurt / And most egregiously, Robert Richardson's film elevating work on Kill Bill. That's just criminal. Someone should collect someone's f**ing head. And Andrew Lesnie's work on RETURN OF THE KING* which won OFCS, Dallas, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Seattle, and Florida film critics awards.