OSCAR speculation

And the Oscar goes to... The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Just as the entire world predicted.

Oscar Box Office Influence Update:
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King tops 1 billion worldwide as it heads into Oscar weekend, topped only by Titanic at this point.
In other box office Mystic River continues to enjoy a healthy secondbox office life (and has moved up many spots in the box office rankings for 2003 films since the nominations were announced) and Seabiscuit slips one notch as Diane Keaton's Oscar nominee triumph Something's Gotta Give surpasses the horse's box office total. Lost in Translation is now on video and DVD but pulling a tiny bit of awards box office despite that. Master and Commander is desperately trying to reach the magic 100 million mark but with 8 million left to go it would take a miracle (like major Oscar wins) to get it there. Cold Mountain on the other hand is nearing the 100 million mark. Pretty awesome for a civil war costume drama romance that failed to secure a Best Picture nomination. The big box office story though is the little film powered by a very big nomination. Monster continues to pull in its unlikely box office bonanza (for a grim indie) with nearly 24 million to date. That's like 6 times what the grim and Best Actress nominated Requiem for a Dream was capable of and its' rapidly closing in on the 31 million gross of the similarly titled and similarly Best Actress driven Monster's Ball with Halle Berry.

*The Best Picture Shortlist* 5 out of 5 in my predictions. (thank you. thank you.) Box Office Rank is determined by figures from boxofficemojo.com / Critical rank is from the extensive charts at geninn.net

The Lord of the Rings: THE RETURN OF THE KING	LOST IN TRANSLATION	MASTER AND COMMANDER: The Far Side of the World	MYSTIC RIVER	SEABISCUIT
New Line (Dec) dir. Peter Jackson Official Site 11 nominations /11 wins (Top Ten List) Box Office Rank $361+ / 1st place after winning take: another $10 Precursor Awards Best Picture from: GOLDEN GLOBE, PGA, BFCA, BAFTA, OFCS, NYFCC, NBR, Chicago, Kansas, Vegas, Dallas, DC, Cinemarati, Florida, SEFCA, & AAFC and the SAG award for Ensemble Cast. Critical Rank 2nd place My grade: A	Focus Features (Sept) dir. Sofia Coppola Official Site 4 nominations / 1 win (Top Ten List) Box Office Rank $43+ / 69th place after ceremony take another $1 / 67th place Precursor Awards Best Picture from: Golden Globe (Musical/ Comedy), Golden Satellite (Musical/Comedy), Vancouver, San Francisco, Toronto Also: NBR (Special Achievement) and several actor awards. Critical Rank 1st place My grade: B+	Fox/Universal/Mir. (Nov) dir. Peter Weir Official Site 10 nominations / 2 wins Review Box Office Rank $92 + / 30th place after ceremony take another $1 / 31st place overtaken by Cold Mountain Precursor Awards London Film Critics Critical Rank 8th place My grade: B	Warner Bros (Oct) dir. Clint Eastwood Official Site 6 nominations / 2 wins Review Box Office Rank $79+ / 37th place *after ceremony take* another $8 / 33rd place Precursor Awards Best Picture from: NBR & Boston Film Critics Also: Several actor awards Critical Rank 3rd place My grade: B	Universal (July) dir. Gary Ross Official Site 7 nominations / 0 wins Article Box Office Rank $120+ / 17th place Precursor Awards nominations only Critical Rank 16th place My grade: C+
Campaign Challenge
Oscar bias against fantasy or sci-fi film. Much like Emmy just can't give themselves to give Sopranos their top prize (since it's on cable)	Lowest box office of the group, slight (though lovely) narrative. AMPAS voters would have to get adventurous to honor it...	Quick: What was the most engrossing battle epic of 2003? Answer: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King	Oscar prefers warmhearts to cynics. They prefer exotic spectacles to human drama. A loss on both counts.	Oscar is like an unholy mix of crit' and aud' response: The critics aren't in Seabiscuits stable, and the audience is behind Rings.
How'd These Films Get Nominated?

Grand conclusion to the epic fantasy. The most nominated trilogy ever. 59% Fellowship and The Two Towers. Those feelings of both love and inevitability have had two years to grow. 24% History will be Oscar hating if this one doesn't collect the gold. 12% The Battle for Pellenor Fields. Still manages jawdropping moments after 3 films. 3% critical hosannas. Rare for audience and critics to connect 2% respected and very famous source material gives auto-respect.	*This year's contemporary indie critical darling.* 30% Amazing chemistry (Bill & Scarlett) for the ages. 24% Surprisingly 'sticky'. Seems slight but doesn't leave your head for months afterwards. 16% Hollywood child (Sofia Coppola) makes good and is welcomed into the kingdom. 15% Critical approval and precursor awards 12% perfectly timed release for a film that needed time to build. 3% History making -first American female director to be nom'ed.	*Technically accomplished adventure epic on the high seas.* 48% Appreciation for its obvious technical mastery. A very handsome production any way you slice it. 24% Respect for Weir and Crowe, both of whom are proven reliable Academy favorites. 15% Old school charms. Seems unphased by modern films in its pacing and character moments (like the cello and violin duet). 13% Backing from three major studios =Lots of insider support.	*An all star cast in an "important" tragic drama.* 34% Directed by Clint Eastwood, a legend. Some feel it tops his Oscar-winning western. 33% Its air of classical tragedy. The film feels important in the traditional "prestige drama" way that most of the other films did not. 22% The combined prestige of its all-star lineup. Penn (who feels "due"), Robbins, Linney, Harden, etc... 11% Early critical drama leader gave it a headstart going into awards season.	*Crowdpleasing heartwarming true life tale rides the underdog track.* 68% For the Academy which has always loved the 'triumph of the human spirit' in underdog clothing -the irresistible "root for me" factor embedded in the narrative was probably like hits of heroin for a junkie in withdrawal. 13% Handsome glossy production values. 10% Well-timed, relentless and pretty Oscar campaign. 9% True story based on respected non-fiction best seller =respect.
Celebrity of Critical Endorsements
Lisa Schwarzbaum, Owen Gleiberman			Peter Travers
How'd I do on my Predictions:
5/5 baby 100%. I wobbled a bit on leaving Cold Mountain out but thank goodness I did. And thank you to my reader Mark who gave me that last:"You know you want to!" push. For my year in advance predictions I scored 2/5 foreseeing Return of the King and Seabiscuit.
Which Film Got Snubbed?
The numbers and specific nominations will tell you that Cold Mountain and In America were very close to upsets for one or two of the above pictures. But this is a fairly respectable list given their Oscar style choices this year. Good on AMPAS
Which Film Will AND Should Win?
This oscar is Peter Jackson and company's to lose. But let's hope they don't --It's been a long long time coming. 30 nominations later (the most for any trilogy in Oscar history including the Godfather films) I think only a deeply unfeeling hater would deny that they have this particular Oscar coming. The winner should be The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. The battle for Middle Earth has ended. The battle for Oscar is also nearing its epic conclusion. May the good guys win. (My only worry being that I haven't agreed with the Best Picture choice since probably 1984. Maybe that means it's time again. But on the other hand...)
*If I had a Ballot...* Though I do feel that this year was mediocre at best for the cinema