OSCAR speculation

Original Screenplay PreCeremony Thoughts: Who will win? I'm going with Lost in Translation but JUST BARELY. Honestly I think it's neck and neck with the warmer In America and it seems to me that some in the media (and by natural implied extension) some in the Academy probably view Lost in Translation as owing its unforgettable-ness to Bill Murray rather than the screenplay. I'm not saying I agree but there do seem to be detractors that think he wrote all his own stuff. Neither of these films would make me blink if they were announced. I'd be more confident predicting a Lost in Translation backlash toward the great backstory of In America --except for that everyone stopped talking about that family drama as soon as nominations were announced -usually a bad sign for momentum. Anything other choice would register as a significant surprise. Nominees I scored 4/5 here on my predictions / 1/5 from my year-in-advance predix where I guessed In America and some other things that weren't really ever in the running other than 21 Grams and Love, Actually / my personal choices for original screenplay

THE BARBARIAN INVASIONS Denys Arcand	DIRTY PRETTY THINGS Steve Knight	FINDING NEMO Andrew Stanton, Bob Peterson, and David Reynolds	IN AMERICA Jim, Kristen, & Naomi Sheridan	LOST IN TRANSLATION Sofia Coppola
Precursor Awards Toronto	Precursor Awards none.	Precursor Awards none.	Precursor Awards BFCA, Phoenix, NBR	Precursor Awards Golden Globe, OFCS, Florida, NBR (Special), Seattle, Chicago, DC, Toronto, SEFCA

*Shut Out of Competition*
Snubs: 21 GRAMS by Arriaga KILL BILL by Quentin Tarantino and the exceedingly well written RAISING VICTOR VARGAS which was no doubt way too small for the industry to notice. A MIGHTY WIND -Christopher Guest & Company always get some precursor attention but they never seem to completely win over the industry. Despite the fact that AMPAS does honor British screenplays (Mike Leigh hello) that are written in the same ensemble improv way. THIRTEEN -Catherine Hardwicke & Nikki Reed's much discussed screenplay for this teen drama also got the big snub.

*Adapted Screenplay Nominees* -PreCeremony Thoughts. Who will win? I'm going with Seabiscuit fora number of reasons. It seems like three of the other choices are slightly highbrow /critical darlings and could conceivably work against each other. Return of the King is not perceived as a writers achievement (don't ask me why -I don't know. Just because you achieve spectacularly on the surface does not mean you didn't achieve spectacularly when you laid the groundwork) so the eventual winner could be the very middlebrow safe choice which is not so incidentally based on a book that many many people liked, and it has been giving Mystic trouble at the guild awards. My spoiler vote here would be Mystic -but I'm pulling for Return. *The Nominations* I scored 4/5 here on my final predictions / 2/5 from my year-in-advance predix correctly forseeing Seabiscuit and Return of the King only / If I had a ballot -my adapted screenplay choices

AMERICAN SPLENDOR	CITY OF GOD	MYSTIC RIVER	The Lord of the Rings: THE RETURN OF THE KING	SEABISCUIT
Based on the graphic novel Our Cancer Yearby Joyce Pekar and the comic American Splendor by Harvey Pekar Precursor Awards NSFC, Seattle, OFCS	Based on the novel Cidade de Deus by Paulo Lins / screenplay by Braulio Mantovani Precursor Awards None.	Based on the novel Mystic River by Dennis Lehane / screenplay by Brian Helgeland Precursor Awards DC, SEFCA, USC Scripter	Based on the novel by The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King by J.R.R. Tolkien / screenplay by Frances Walsh, Phillipa Boyens, and Peter Jackson Precursor Awards OFCS, Phoenix	Based on the novel Seabiscuit: An American Legend by Laura Hillenbrand / screenplay by Gary Ross Precursor Awards USC Scripter

*The Competition*
HIGH PROFILE SNUBS COLD MOUNTAIN Anthony Minghella MASTER AND COMMANDER despite its best picture placement. GIRL WITH A PEARL EARRING which I thought had a darkhorse shot. BIG FISH which flopped considerably with AMPAS.