Shohreh Aghdashloo HOUSE OF SAND AND FOG	Patricia Clarkson pieces OF APRIL	Marcia Gay Harden MYSTIC RIVER	Holly Hunter thirteen	Renée Zellweger COLD MOUNTAIN
first nomination!	first nomination!	2 noms / 1 win	4 noms / 1 win	3 noms / 1 win
Precursor Awards: NYFCC, OFCS, LAFCA Role: Nadi, the sheltered wife of Behrani, who lives in denial of their precarious position.	Precursor Awards: NBR, Golden Satellite, Boston, San Francisco, NSFC, Kansas, Chicago, Vancouver, Florida, Phoenix Role: A cancer victim visiting her estranged daughter.	Precursor Awards: Seattle Role: A wife who is losing it, afraid that her husband has committed a terrible crime.	Precursor Awards: Las Vegas Role: Melanie Freeland, a single mother watching her daughter sink deeper into teen hell.	Precursor Awards: SAG, BFCA, SEFCA, San Diego, Golden Globe, Dallas Role: Ruby, a feisty friend who helps Ada keep her farm during the Civil War.
How'd They Get Nominated?
55% The performance. It's gotta be great if you're an unknown foreign quantity in an American saturated competitive field. Hers is. 21% Acting w/ Ben Kingsley. If you can keep up --wow. 14% The supporting categories are often where those "one shot" nominations happen. Despite her skill and beauty... how will Hollywood know what to do with her? 10% The role. A good one, sure, but it could have gone very flat with a lesser actress. 2% Glamour and regality	60% "Oh my god, you mean we've never nominated THE Patricia Clarkson. How totally embarrassing. We are so deeply ashamed! What the hell is wrong with us!?!" 25% The Role. She's dying of cancer for pete's sake! It's Oscar heroin. 10% The performance. Though it's nowhere close to her best (not even in this calendar year), Patricia's worst is like everyone else's best. Seriously. 5% That enviable truckload of critical awards	40% The role: A crucial one in a Best Picture nominee. 30% The performance. Even though she's playing sort of the anti-version of they're favorite role (The supportive wife) it's close enough for them since she invokes audience sympathy despite all that. Harden is a terrific actress in general and seems to have hit her prime in the past few years. 6% That prior 'Oscar winner' glow. 2% A tough personal year... which often adds to sympathy.	59% The performance. It's just... Well, it's a "wow" 15% That Evan Rachel Wood is the real deal. Hollywood knows it. And she has great chemistry with Hunter who seems to guide and hold 11% She's Holly Hunter isn't she? And she hasn't been up for the gold since her twin nominations and Oscar win exactly one decade back. 10% The role. A fiercely loving recovering alcoholic -- -very sympathetic. 5% Hotness and glamour --aging extraordinarily well.	50% The role: It's nearly a lead (which helps) and it's juicy. So juicy that any actor would be tempted to gnaw and tear and munch on it the way she does and swallow it in big dangerous gulps. 35% The performance. It snaps people awake (perhaps for the wrong reasons but whatever) during an otherwise tepid experience. 10% Triple play. Past noms tend to help future noms. This is her third year up for gold. 5% Glamour and celebrity and ample media attention.
How'd I do in Predictions
My predictions I scored 60% of this category with 3/5 in a very tough to predict category. Oscar was definitely doing their own thing this year. They chose only 3 of the Globe & SAG choices and then filled out the category with the precursor struggling Marcia Gay Harden and Shohreh Aghdashloo, who with a great performance, managed to break the semi-curse on foreign actresses in this category.
Who Got Robbed
If I had a ballot -- Overall Oscar made good choices here! We'll discuss Renée later. So instead I'll bitch again about Sony Pictures Classics bungle of the great Miranda Richardson whose campaign they totally slaughtered last year for Spider (but the film was released this year basically. And she was phenomenal. As for the Scarlet Johansson snub. Well, I love her as you know. But it serves them right. The worst attempted Category Fraud I had ever seen. She did not belong in this category. AMPAS apparently agreed...even though they don't normally have a problem with fraudulent claims (also notice Ethan Hawke competing in supporting a couple of years ago)
Which Film Clip Should Oscar Show? Send Your Suggestions
"They will deport us?" -Drums With Connelly in the kitchen: "Please to write this down" -Nick "Behrani, what have you done?" -Gary	"Other than your weight problem..." -Drums	Her husband arrives home late "you're not making any sense" -many readers On the steps with Jimmy nodding "yes" -Gary	"I love you and your brother very much" -Wayne	"Let's put him in the pot" -Jason The Weather monologue -everyone Don't show any clips -she was awful -Abhi
Who Should Think About Writing A Speech
I'm sure that Rénee already has her speech, written, memorized, and rehearsed in front of her mirror. Let's just get this over with (sigh)Hunter and Harden have previously won, and the performance weren't widely enough embraced to conquer that two-time winner (?) hesistation on voters parts. I know there are folks out there that claim an upset is in the works from Shohreh or Patricia but that's wishful thinking.
Who Should Win?
Patricia Clarkson has been much better before and will be again very soon. Shohreh Aghdashloo was something of a quiet revelation but my heart and my vote goes to the fiercely maternal and wondrous Holly Hunter. She's been churning out great work for 15 years and her performance in thirteen stands proudly with her most remarkable previous star turns.