OSCAR speculation

The Journey has Ended
OSCAR DIARY -Complete. We'll see you Next Year.

WINNER STATISTICS 15 of 24 -Basically I overthought the race and it had been soooo long since there was a real clear winner that I forgot all about the total sweep effect. I guessed that Return of the King would manage 8 Oscars -missing in 3 of its tightest races. But lo and behold, you really can win everything if there's no chance of losing Best Picture. But it's been so long since a Best Picture was this powerfully locked and nominations dominant that it didn't occur to me that they would love it as much as they did. I guess I was too worried to fully embrace the Academy's embrace.

But I could have scored better were it not for my annual desire to predict the upsets (which other than in animated short this year just simply did not occur) I went Murray (who I did sorta believe in) and Shohreh (which was wishful thinking) and then I tried to predict surprises like in foreign film... but I chose wrong. Ah well, I'm always better at guessing nominees anyway.

NOMINEE STATISTICS
Calculations below on how well I did in my NOMINEE predictions both a year ago and my final pre-nomination guesswork. I used to never calculate these things (because it's all for fun anyway) but I was recently chastised for not really caring about the cinema (!) in favor of statistical guesswork so I may as well play that dastardly role to the hilt on this page. Special Thank You: To the Academy for apparently thinking for themselves and making it difficult. (Even though of course I have my disappointments). Also a thank you to my reader Mark who said: "Dump Cold Mountain; You know you want to" -I did and as a result Picture is one of my 4 perfect scores. Also Art Direction. And f/x & Animated (well, those last two were easy)

Nomination Tally Breakdown vs. Tally I Predicted 11 nominations RETURN OF THE KING -13 10 nominations MASTER AND COMMANDER -10 7 nominations SEABISCUIT -7 & COLD MOUNTAIN -6 6 nominations MYSTIC RIVER -6 5 nominations PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN -5 4 nominations LOST IN TRANSLATION -5 THE LAST SAMURAI -5 FINDING NEMO -4 CITY OF GOD -0 (the biggest shock of nominations. For those who are curious why it is eligible... if a film is submitted for foreign Oscar consideration and does not make that year's list. It is eligible the following year for all awards EXCEPT foreign language provided that it meets the regular release requirements -a one week consecutive run in Los Angeles during the Calendar year.) 3 nominations GIRL WITH A PEARL EARRING -5 IN AMERICA -3 HOUSE OF SAND AND FOG -1 2 nominations THE TRIPLETS OF BELLEVILLE -1 21 GRAMS -1 BARBARIAN INVASIONS -2 1 nomination BIG FISH -1 THIRTEEN -1 MONSTER -1 THE COOLER -2 PIECES OF APRIL -1 SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE -1 AMERICAN SPLENDOR -1 A MIGHTY WIND -0 snubbed -not nominated in any category THE STATION AGENT -1 MONA LISA SMILE -1 KILL BILL, VOL. 1 -1

Final Predictions My major 8 score: 75% My overall score: 74.5%
my best categories were Picture, Art Direction, Visual Effects and Animated film for 100% correct guesswork.
Year-in-Advance Scores? My Major 8 score: 27.5 % My overall score: 30.4%
my best year in advance score in major eight categories was Actor (2/5 -- 3/5 if you excuse that I had Penn but for the wrong film...but alas, I don't excuse that) Picture (2/5) and Adapted Screenplay (2/5) my best year-in-advance score in all categories was, oddly enough, Best Sound where I correctly guessed 3/5 nominees

WINNERS IN LARGE TYPE
11 Oscars for Return of the King / 2 for Master and Commander and Mystic River / 1 for Lost in Translation / Seabiscuit shut-out. Other winning films with 1 Oscar each: Cold Mountain, Monster, The Barbarian Invasions, Finding Nemo, The Fog of War

PICTURE
LOST IN TRANS...
Focus
SEABISCUIT
Universal
MASTER AND...
Univ/Fox/Miramax
RETURN OF THE KING
New Line
MYSTIC RIVER
Warner Bros.

I predicted: ROTK
predictions: 5/5

DIRECTOR
COPPOLA
Lost in Translation
EASTWOOD
Mystic River
JACKSON
Return of the King
MEIRELLES
City of God
WEIR
Master & Commander

I predicted: Jackson
predictions: 4/5

ACTOR
DEPP
Pirates of Caribbean
KINGSLEY
House of Sand & Fog
LAW
Cold Mountain
MURRAY
Lost in Translation
PENN
Mystic River

I predicted: Murray
predictions: 4/5

ACTRESS
CASTLE-HUGHES
Whale Rider
KEATON
Something's Gotta Give
MORTON
In America
THERON
Monster
WATTS
21 Grams

I predicted: Theron
predictions: 3/5

SUPPORTING ACTOR
BALDWIN
The Cooler
DEL TORO
21 Grams
HONSOU
In America
ROBBINS
Mystic River
WATANABE
The Last Samurai

I predicted: Robbins
predictions: 3/5
(my alternate made it)

SUPP. ACTRESS
AGHDASHLOO
House of Sand and Fog
CLARKSON
Pieces of April
HARDEN
Mystic River
HUNTER
Thirteen
ZELLWEGER
Cold Mountain

I predicted: Shohreh
predictions: 3/5
(my alternate made it)

ORIGINAL S'PLAY
BARBARIAN INV...
DIRTY PRETTY...
FINDING NEMO
IN AMERICA
LOST IN TRANSLATION

I predicted: Lost in...
predictions: 4/5
(my alternate made it)

ADAPTED S'PLAY
AMERICAN SP'DOR
CITY OF GOD
MYSTIC RIVER
RETURN OF KING
SEABISCUIT

I predicted: Seabiscuit
predictions: 4/5

CINEMA...
CITY OF GOD
COLD MOUNTAIN
GIRL W/ A PEARL
MASTER & COMMANDER
SEABISCUIT

I predicted: Girl
predictions: 3/5
(my alternate made it)

ART DIR.
GIRL WITH A PEARL
LAST SAMURAI RETURN OF KING
MASTER & COMM...
SEABISCUIT

I predicted: ROTK
predictions: 5/5

COSTUME
GIRL WITH A PEARL
LAST SAMURAI
MASTER & COMM...
RETURN OF KING
SEABISCUIT

I predicted: ROTK
predictions: 3/5
(my alternate made it)

EDITING
CITY OF GOD
COLD MOUNTAIN
MASTER & COMM...
RETURN OF KING
SEABISCUIT

I predicted: City of God
predictions: 4/5

SCORE
BIG FISH
COLD MOUNTAIN
FINDING NEMO
HOUSE OF SAND...
RETURN OF THE KING

I predicted: ROTK
predictions: 3/5

FOREIGN
CANADA
-Barbarian Invasion
CZECH REPUBLIC
-Falcon
JAPAN
-Twilight Samurai
NETHERLANDS
Twin Sisters
SWEDEN
Evil
I predicted: Twin Sisters
predictions: 4/5

SOUND
LAST SAMURAI
MASTER & COMM...
PIRATES OF...
RETURN OF THE KING
SEABISCUIT

I predicted: ROTK
predictions: 4/5

SONG
COLD MOUNTAIN
COLD MOUNTAIN
A MIGHTY WIND
RETURN OF THE KING
TRIPLETS OF...

I predicted: ROTK
predictions: 3/5
(my alternate made it)

VISUAL fx
RETURN OF KING
MASTER & COMM...
PIRATES OF...

I predicted: ROTK
predictions: 3/3

MAKEUP
RETURN OF THE KING
MASTER & COMM...
PIRATES OF CARIBBEAN

I predicted: Pirates
predictions: 2/3

SOUND fx
FINDING NEMO
MASTER & COMMANDER
PIRATES OF....

I predicted: Master &
predictions: 2/3

ANIMATED
BROTHER BEAR
FINDING NEMO
TRIPLETS OF...

I predicted: Nemo
Predictions: 3/3

DOCU SHORT

ASYLUM
CHERNOBYL HEART
FERRY TALES

I predicted: Chernobyl

DOCUMENTARY

BALSEROS
CAPTURING THE...
THE FOG OF WAR
MY ARCHITECT
WEATHER UNDER...

I predicted: Fog of War
predictions: 3/5

ANIMATED Short

BOUNDIN'
DESTINO
GONE NUTTY
HARVEY KRUMPET
NIBBLES

I predicted: Destino
Predictions: 4/5

LIVE
SHORT

DIE ROTE JACKE (The Red Jacket)
MOST (The Bridge)
SQUASH
(A) TORZIJA (A Torsion)
TWO SOLDIERS

I predicted: Most


PICTURE LOST IN TRANS... Focus SEABISCUIT Universal MASTER AND... Univ/Fox/Miramax RETURN OF THE KING New Line MYSTIC RIVER Warner Bros. I predicted: ROTK predictions: 5/5	DIRECTOR COPPOLA Lost in Translation EASTWOOD Mystic River JACKSON Return of the King MEIRELLES City of God WEIR Master & Commander I predicted: Jackson predictions: 4/5	ACTOR DEPP Pirates of Caribbean KINGSLEY House of Sand & Fog LAW Cold Mountain MURRAY Lost in Translation PENN Mystic River I predicted: Murray predictions: 4/5	ACTRESS CASTLE-HUGHES Whale Rider KEATON Something's Gotta Give MORTON In America THERON Monster WATTS 21 Grams I predicted: Theron predictions: 3/5


SUPPORTING ACTOR BALDWIN The Cooler DEL TORO 21 Grams HONSOU In America ROBBINS Mystic River WATANABE The Last Samurai I predicted: Robbins predictions: 3/5 (my alternate made it)	SUPP. ACTRESS AGHDASHLOO House of Sand and Fog CLARKSON Pieces of April HARDEN Mystic River HUNTER Thirteen ZELLWEGER Cold Mountain I predicted: Shohreh predictions: 3/5 (my alternate made it)	ORIGINAL S'PLAY BARBARIAN INV... DIRTY PRETTY... FINDING NEMO IN AMERICA LOST IN TRANSLATION I predicted: Lost in... predictions: 4/5 (my alternate made it)	ADAPTED S'PLAY AMERICAN SP'DOR CITY OF GOD MYSTIC RIVER RETURN OF KING SEABISCUIT I predicted: Seabiscuit predictions: 4/5


CINEMA... CITY OF GOD COLD MOUNTAIN GIRL W/ A PEARL MASTER & COMMANDER SEABISCUIT I predicted: Girl predictions: 3/5 (my alternate made it)	ART DIR. GIRL WITH A PEARL LAST SAMURAI RETURN OF KING MASTER & COMM... SEABISCUIT I predicted: ROTK predictions: 5/5	COSTUME GIRL WITH A PEARL LAST SAMURAI MASTER & COMM... RETURN OF KING SEABISCUIT I predicted: ROTK predictions: 3/5 (my alternate made it)	EDITING CITY OF GOD COLD MOUNTAIN MASTER & COMM... RETURN OF KING SEABISCUIT I predicted: City of God predictions: 4/5


VISUAL fx RETURN OF KING MASTER & COMM... PIRATES OF... I predicted: ROTK predictions: 3/3	MAKEUP RETURN OF THE KING MASTER & COMM... PIRATES OF CARIBBEAN I predicted: Pirates predictions: 2/3	SOUND fx FINDING NEMO MASTER & COMMANDER PIRATES OF.... I predicted: Master & predictions: 2/3	ANIMATED BROTHER BEAR FINDING NEMO TRIPLETS OF... I predicted: Nemo Predictions: 3/3


DOCU SHORT ASYLUM CHERNOBYL HEART FERRY TALES I predicted: Chernobyl	DOCUMENTARY BALSEROS CAPTURING THE... THE FOG OF WAR MY ARCHITECT WEATHER UNDER... I predicted: Fog of War predictions: 3/5	ANIMATED Short BOUNDIN' DESTINO GONE NUTTY HARVEY KRUMPET NIBBLES I predicted: Destino Predictions: 4/5	LIVE SHORT DIE ROTE JACKE (The Red Jacket) MOST (The Bridge) SQUASH (A) TORZIJA (A Torsion) TWO SOLDIERS I predicted: Most