OSCAR PREDICTIONS
by
Nathaniel
R
Monday,
December 13th
It's
that time of year... Weekly prediction updates
Best
Picture Predictions December 6th: 10 Men - 5 Slots |
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| Precursor Track: Hollywood Film Festival (Actor of the Year) Leonardo DiCaprio * Venice Javier Bardem, The Sea Inside * NBR Jamie Foxx, Ray * LAFCA Liam Neeson, Kinsey * NYFCO Jamie Foxx, Ray * European Film Awards Javier Bardem, The Sea Inside * Boston Jamie Foxx, Ray * San Francisco Paul Giamatti, Sideways * NYFCC Paul Giamatti, Sideways * Toronto Paul Giamatti, Sideways * DC Jamie Foxx, Ray * | ||||
(Green
= Lock / Yellow =Likely / Red =Tough Call / Blue = Extreme Longshots) |
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| The
Frontrunner It's often dangerous to be the frontrunner for months on end. But Jamie Foxx doesn't look like he minds too much. He gives EXACTLY the kind of performance they love. In his corner: Ray Charles is like Oscar bait in human form. The dearly departed real person (Oscar Bait!) is widely known and beloved (Bait!) disabled (Bait!) had a drug problem (Bait!) had stormy relationships with others (Bait!) and gets the hagiography treatment in the year of the BioPic (Oscar Bait!). The role is nearly impossible to beat for an actor and Jamie Foxx ices this cake with an overall breakout A-list status year. Working against him: Early frontrunner status and media ubiquity can dampen enthusiasm for anyone in the Oscar race. Also there are people out there who believe it's the role and not the performance that is garnering the praise. Not that anyone is saying he's bad --just questioning on statue worthiness. What he needs to win: To keep up the media presence without going overboard and to pray that none of the overdue "career award" guys (calling Jeff Bridges, Johnny Depp, and Clint Eastwood) get the nomination to begin with. A career make-up award campaign for a beloved actor could conceivably topple the Ray gravy train. |
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| 1
(1)(1)(1)(2) (2)(10)(-) Jamie Foxx ray never nominated (Oct) |
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| Not
Safe but Good Bets... Leondaro DiCaprio has the lead role in the surest thing --this often means "package deal" but will it in this case? Leo's past indifference to Oscar may not help. Liam Neeson does terrific work inhabiting the soul of the awkward obsessive researcher Alfred Kinsey. Playing a real life character isn't a bonus as it is in some years because the competition is doing the same thing. Johnny Depp could ride Neverland and leftover Pirates love to Oscar glory despite his rather average work in the JM Barrie biopic. |
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2
(5)(4)(5)(5)(6) (1)(2)(3) Johnny Depp finding neverland 1 nomination (Nov) |
3
(3)(5)(2)(2)(1 ) (6)(8)(8) Liam Neeson kinsey 1 nomination (Nov) |
4 (2)(6)(6)(6)(5) (4)(4)(5) Leo Dicaprio the aviator 1 nomination (Dec) |
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| win:
HFF noms: BFCA, GG |
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Are They Feeling Lucky?
They might be. I have a sneaky suspicion that both of these men will make it and either Liam, Johnny, or Leo will unexpectedly fall --but I can't for the life of me figure which. Javier Bardem managed a nom before he was famous. Will enough voters check this film out to taste his charisma again? If they do, he's in. But December is crowded. On the other hand, the Globes which rarely go for foreign contenders did so here. And it's an intensely likeable movie-star big performance which will help. Meanwhile can Paul Giamatti convert critical adulation into his first Oscar nod? It's starting to look like it. If the year weren't so competitive he'd be locking up by now... but in a field of so many movie stars will his sad sack failed writer resonate with enough voters in the Academy? |
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| 5 (6)(2)(4)(3)(3) (18)(13)(-) Javier Bardem the sea inside 1 nomination (Dec) |
6 (8)(8)(14)(12)(-) (-)(-)(-) Paul Giamatti Sideways never nominated (Sept) |
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| win:
EFA & Venice noms: BFCA, GG
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Golden
Globe Trauma for
Eastwood who is a multiple nominee for Baby but not for his acting. Bridges is an idolized actor and was magnificent in Door in the Floor but can't seem to get arrested this awards season. Very weird. Kevin Bacon and Don Cheadle are getting some (not a lot) of precursor attention --it's theoretically possible. |
7
reentry Don Cheadle Hotel Rwanda never nominated (Dec) |
8 (7)(17)(18)(-)(-) (-)(-)(-) Clint Eastwood million dollar baby 1 nomination (Dec) |
9 (9)(-)(-)(18)(16) (20)(17)(-) Kevin Bacon The Woodsman never nominated (Dec) |
10 (4)(3)(3)(4)(4) (10)(18)(-) Jeff Bridges door in the floor 4 noms / 0 wins (July) |
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The
Fat Lady finally sings for... Kevin Spacey Beyond the Sea (GG nomination) whose career hasn't been anything to sing about sinnce his two Oscar wins. Jim Carrey Eternal Sunshine (GG & GS Nomination) who gave his best performance ever --but in an intelligent and contemporary romantic dramedy (neither of which are trademark descriptions of "Oscarbait") Tom Cruise Collateral who went the villianous route to great effect but in a summer film and couldn't get any love even from his adoring Golden Globes. And Gael Garcia Bernal Motorcycle Diaries (GS nomination) or Bad Education who has too many strikes against him --foreign: strike! non-caucasian: strike! beautiful and young: strike! (unless you're in the actress categories) Three strikes and you're out! Jim Caviezel Passion of the Christ suffered and suffered and is suffering right through awards season. |
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Dec 13th Predictions
Bardem / Depp
/ Dicaprio / Foxx / Neeson
Previous Predictions
Dec 6th Predictions Bridges / Depp /
Dicaprio / Foxx / Neeson
Post Toronto Sept 26th through November 30th Bardem
/ Bridges / Depp / Foxx
/ Neeson
Late August Pre-TIFF Bardem / Bridges
/ Dicaprio / Foxx / Neeson
July's End Cruise / Depp / Dicaprio
/ Foxx / Murray
Halfway Mark (July) Bernal / Cruise /
Depp / Dicaprio / Murray
Year in Advance Predictions Bernal
/ Cruise / Depp
/ DiCaprio / Hanks
the graveyard
(if you want to gloat at the men who came and did not conquer... )
