TM


Oscar EARLY BIRD/FOOL Speculation 2004
Best Actress ? * Posted 02/08/04
Picture / Dir / Actress / Actor / Supp Actress / Supp Actor / Animate / Foreign / Writing / Costume / Techs /Music / All


Days (roughly) until OSCAR NOMINATIONS ARE ANNOUNCED!

* April Fools Day Predictions * Previous April Fools scores in this category:
2003: (1 for 5) Connelly, Kidman, Mirren, Morton, Ryan
2002:
(2 for 5) Hayek, Moore, Pfeiffer, Streep, Winslet
2001:
(2 for 5) Blanchett, Foster, Kidman, Spacek, Streep

 

April Fool's Predictions for Best Actress
and why I chose them...
Juliette Binoche
BEE SEASON
2 noms / 1 win
Claire Danes
SHOPGIRL
never nominated
Gwyneth Paltrow
PROOF
1 nom / 1 win
Robin Wright Penn
A HOME AT THE END OF THE WORLD
never nominated
Kate Winslet
J.M. BARRIE'S NEVERLAND / ETERNAL SUNSHINE
3 noms / 0 wins
This filmmaking duo was behind The Deep End (with nearly nom'ed Tilda Swinton) so we know they can provide a great female role for a talented actress. It'd be nice to wipe the Chocolat stain off of Juliette in my mind.
The role is tricky but we're talking Claire Danes? And isn't it about time she shines again and makes us all remember why she got famous to begin with... (namely that she's a fine actress)
The time is ripe for Paltrow to return to Oscar. She's still hugely famous. Plus, this role is a superb one -it already helped the great Mary Louise Parker to a Tony Award and Paltrow herself to great reviews onstage.
This role, "Claire" was meaty and lively in the book of the same name. And Robin proved in White Oleander that she needs to stop playing dull doormat roles and choose oversize characters and attack them with real flair.
Kate is the only current actress that could be a real threat to Streep level nom tally (she is only 29 after all). These roles are both potentially rich. The earlier role is already garnering praise. Here's hoping the films good.
Alternates:
I was tempted to throw these in and everyone is just at likely from a distance
(the reasons why I think they could be real candidates listed below)
Uma Thurman
KILL BILL, Vol. 2
1 nomination
Anne Reid
THE MOTHER
never nominated
Reese Witherspoon
VANITY FAIR
never nominated
Kim Basinger
DOOR IN THE FLOOR
1 nom / 1 win
Nicole Kidman
BIRTH / DOGVILLE / STEPFORD WIVES
2 noms / 1 win
Emmy Rossum
THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
never nominated
Last year's most egregious snub was this icy actress in her greatest role. Well, Oscar has one chance to make it up to her. If Volume 2 is more accessible for Oscar let us pray they realize the error of their ways.
This performance has been raved across the Ocean at both Cannes last summer and at BAFTA this winter. The only question is will the film (and consequently Reid) get a fair shake in American release and a campaign?
Reese is the new Julia according to both the media and the public. It took Julia awhile to achieve Oscar gold after her box office coronation (and she even had two early nominations) Can Reese get there quicker? Can she do "period"?
Kim is an uneven actress but when she really works in a role, she's extremely watchable (see LA Confidential or Fool For Love or even 9 1/2 Weeks (I kid you not) We shall see about this marital drama.
Nicole is in serious danger of overexposure. In fact, some would argue that she already has achieved it. 2004 sees 3 more films for her (possibly 4). That may be too many, or the films too small or in one case too comic. We shall see.
That they chose relative unknowns indicates that they wanted real musical talent. That is a good sign for the iffy film. But can Rossum (last seen as Sean Penn's dead daughter in Mystic River) become a star here?
The Other Leading Ladies of the Year.
Before We See a Frame of Film, Everyone is a Possibility
Laura Linney
KINSEY
1 nomination
Jennifer Lopez
AN UNFINISHED LIFE / SHALL WE DANCE?
never nominated
Julianne Moore
THE FORGOTTEN / MARIE & BRUCE
4 nominations
Helen Mirren
THE CLEARING
2 nominations
Keira Knightley
KING ARTHUR
never nominated
Natasha Richardson
ASYLUM
never nominated
Judy Davis
SWIMMING UPSTREAM
2 nominations
Joan Allen
THE UPSIDE OF ANGER / OFF THE MAP
2 nominations
Liv Ullman
SARABAND
2 nominations
Agnes Bruckner
THE WOODS
never nominated
Ashley Judd
DE-LOVELY
never nominated
Julie Delpy
BEFORE SUNSET
never nominated
Jennifer Garner
13 GOING ON 30
never nominated
Renée Zellweger
BRIDGET JONES: THE EDGE OF REASON
3 noms / 1 win
Susan Sarandon
ROMANCE AND CIGARETTES
5 noms / 1 win
Helen Hunt
A GOOD WOMAN
1 nom / 1 win
Annette Bening
BEING JULIA
2 nominations
Blanchard Ryan
OPEN WATER
never nominated
Jena Malone
ROSE AND THE SNAKE
never nominated
Kristen Stewart
SPEAK
never nominated
Laura Dern
WE DON'T LIVE HERE ANYMORE
1 nomination
Meryl Streep
THE MANCHURIAN CANDIDATE
13 noms / 2 wins
Julia Roberts
CLOSER
3 nominations / 1 win
Cecilia Suarez
SPANGLISH
never nominated




Last Year's Race