Previous April Fools scores in this category:
2003: (2 for 5) Only Return of the King & Seabiscuit predicted
2002: (1 for 5) Only GANGS OF NEW YORK predicted a year back *
2001: ( 0 for 5) Wipe out... (two GONY and THE HOURS that did become nominees but the following year instead.)

 

My APRIL FOOL Year in Advance BEST PICTURE predictions and why I chose them...
ALEXANDER Warner Bros	THE AVIATOR Miramax/WarnerBros	COLLATERAL Dreamworks	PROOF Miramax	THE TERMINAL Dreamworks
The life of the controversial king Alexander the Great, concentrating on the siege years when he conquered most of the known world.	A bio-pic concentrating on the early years of billionaire Howard Hughes and his relationship with Hollywood.	A dramatic thriller about a cabbie (Jamie Foxx) and a fare he picks up that happens to be an assassin (Tom Cruise) on a very busy day out for multiple hits.	An adaptation of the Tony winning stage play about a professor's daughter and the mystery surrounding a mathematical proof.	The story of an immigrant who becomes trapped in an airport terminal without proper paperwork and the people who become his surrogate family there.
Oliver Stone beat Baz Luhrmann to the punch -let's just hope that the rush job didn't hurt the film. Colin Farrel and Jared Leto as lovers? Angelina Jolie as Colin's mother? This could be a disaster but it could be magnificent. Stone already has three statues. They like him. They like him a lot.	Martin Scorsese investigates the über glamourous world of Howard Hughes and multiple movie stars played by other stars. Sure to look delicious --Many consider Raging Bull, another bio-pic to be Scorsese's best work. Can he capture another fascinating life onscreen?	Don't you think it's about time Michael Mann were back in the shortlist? I sense that he'll know what to do with the uneven Cruise and lead him (finally) to his Oscar. The last time Cruise was a nasty man onscreen (Magnolia) he was gangbusters. But the subject matter might not do it for Oscar.	Having seen the play, I can safely say that it works exceptionally well as family drama. Hopkins and Paltrow both have terrific roles. The big question mark is of course whether or not they can adapt it to where it feels like a film rather than a stage play on film. That's always tricky.	There's usually one film in the list that has both comedic and dramatic elements. Spielberg hasn't been shortlisted for awhile but he's been having an acclaimed run so it's probably time again. Plus there's the Tom Hanks factor. And the story could be both funny, tense, and moving.

Alternates. The Other Primary Films I Considered I'd be just as comfortable throwing any of these in for any of the above. This whole endeavor is a fairly silly game this year.
J.M. BARRIE'S NEVERLAND Miramax	THE LIFE AQUATIC Touchstone	MOTORCYCLE DIARIES Focus Features	PHANTOM OF THE OPERA Warner Bros
A biopic involving the first production of "Peter Pan or The Boy Who Wouldn't Grow Up" and Barrie's relationship with a young widow.	An adventure film and comedy about a world-famous European Oceanographer and his crew searching for a mythical shark.	Based upon Che Guevera's memoirs of a road trip he took with a friend during his youth in the 50s (before he became a political icon)	An adaptation of Andrew Lloyd Webber's long running (second longest ever) Broadway musical about a disfigured man beneath the opera house.
The release date changes have me worried that the film is troubled. But I'm hoping for the best since I love the cast and the subject matter is also loaded with potential. Can Marc Forster enter that A list of directors?	The cult of Wes continues to grow and this film about an oceanographer and his family/crew will "blow our minds" or so says the hype. It might be too odd for Oscar but stranger things have happened. Wes will eventually be noticed by AMPAS.	Early buzz has been "rave"like. And Gael Garcia Bernal has the stuff of international stardom. Can this Brazilian film about Che Guevera's youth be one of those semi-annual foreign contenders in the big race for Best Picture?	Joel Schumacher has had a long long career and even though it hasn't been particularly distinguished, the source material is gargantuanand familiar enough that Oscar might be won over and reward his longevity.

Rounding out the top dozen... * for a chart that's more 'all encompassing' click here Some of those will eventually slaughter some of these 12 listed here... a year in advance ya just never know!
BIRTH New Line	KINSEY Fox Searchlight	VANITY FAIR Focus Features
A woman meets a strange 10 year old boy who claims to be someone from her past and her life begins to fall apart.	The life story of Alfred Kinsey (Neeson) his wife (Linney) and Kinsey's famous studies on human sexual behavior	An adaptation of the William Makepeace Thackeray novel about a poor woman's social climbing in London.
My most left field choice since there's virtually no buzz and it's a possible Spring release. But Sexy Beast from the same director was an smashing debut. I'm hoping his sophomore effort is equally riveting.	The subject matter alone, Kinsey's sexual behavior research, may turn them off. But if it doesn't it could be up their alley being that it's a bio-pic and stars Oscar nominees and a two time nominee is writing and directing.	Focus Features has proved formidable in its four year existence and I love director Mira Nair... but this is a tricky book to adapt and period comedies are difficult to do correctly. I have my doubts but I'm hoping for the best.

 

This is only 12 films and considering none of them have yet opened, a total crapshoot.
You can get a more complete list of Oscar hopefuls on the studio chart page.
Or read the entire April Fools/Early Bird prediction article here.