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Oscar EARLY BIRD/FOOL Speculation 2004
Best Supporting Actress ? * Posted 02/08/04

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Days (roughly) until OSCAR NOMINATIONS ARE ANNOUNCED!

* April Fools Day Predictions * Previous April Fools scores in this category:
2003: (1 for 5) Dickens, Hunter, Leigh, Watts, Winslet
2002: ( 3 for 5) Bates, Davis, Latifah, Moore, Zellweger
2001: (0 for 5) Arquette, Blanchett, Davis, Wiest, Woof

April Fool's Predictions for Best Supporting Actress
and why I chose them...
Cate Blanchett
THE AVIATOR / THE LIFE AQUATIC
1 nomination
Laura Linney
KINSEY
1 nomination
Bette Midler
THE STEPFORD WIVES
2 nominations
Sissy Spacek
A HOME AT THE END OF THE WORLD
6 noms / 1 win
Tea Leoni
SPANGLISH
never nominated
Every year Cate seems like a sure thing a year in advance. She's always superb. The question is are these two roles large enough to go lead or are they small enough (but still large) given that both films have giant casts. I'm betting she goes for both categories.
For subject matter reasons I don't expect this film to catch on (that's a shame) but the actors could be noticed. And Linney is expert. What will she do with the wife of a famed sex researcher? We'll see. But she's bound to have a second nom' soon.
Wouldn't it be a hoot if Bette Midler stole the show here and returned to Oscar nomination glory in a comic role?! From plot descriptions her role is fairly large. It's my wishful thinking pick... to see the Divine Miss M in top form again.
Spacek resurged as an acclaimed actor with In The Bedroom and here she has another great maternal role. If she has good chemistry with unknown Dallas Roberts (playing her son) and the adaptation focuses enough on her, she could be in the shortlist.
James L Brooks has a magical way with the Academy members. So I expect someone from this film to get some sort of attention --even if the shortlist doesn't happen. Will it be Tea, long adored in some circles and ignored elsewhere, or someone unknown?
Six Alternates:
I was tempted to throw these in and everyone is just at likely from a distance
(the reasons why I think they could be real candidates listed below)
Meryl Streep
THE MANCHURIAN CANDIDATE
13 nominations / 2 wins
Natalie Portman
CLOSER
never nominated
Cecilia Suarez
SPANGLISH
never nominated
Catherine Zeta-Jones
THE TERMINAL
1 nom / 1 win
Angelina Jolie
ALEXANDER
1 nom / 1 win
Minnie Driver
THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
1 nomination
Remakes are not often greeted with love by Oscar. But you never know. If anyone can surmount the obstacle of being compared to an original cast member of a classic, it's probably Meryl Streep... the one and only. Great role. (Also could go lead)
She proved with Cold Mountain that the stinky Star Wars episodes did not actually destroy her once eye opening talent. Perhaps when she is completely rid of them she can nab her first nomination? Or maybe she'll have to atone for them somehow.
I know next to nothing about her role but it is a James L Brooks production and the synopsis does suggest that the film actually isn't about Adam Sandler and Tea Leoni (the top billed stars) -Unknowns sometimes rise up.
If she's playing a love interest to an Oscar- seeking Tom Hanks in a Spielberg film there is hope for a second nomination. But then again, Helen Hunt crashed and burned in the 'Hanks love interest Oscar-seeking' realm.
This once very exciting star has squandered just about all her early good will potential on truly crap films. A return to a showcase role in a film by an A list director could help people forgive her for Lara Croft, Life of Something Like It, etc...
The cast of this could go either way production is interesting. The role of Carlotta was Tony nominated in the stage production. Could Driver's take on the same role also reap awards attention? Driver's career has been uneven but you never know.
The Other Possibly Supporting Ladies of the Year.
Before We See a Frame of Film, Everyone is a Possibility. Especially in Supporting when buzz only ever emerges close to the film's opening...
Daryl Hannah
KILL BILL, Volume 2
never nominated
Judy Davis
SWIMMING UPSTREAM
2 nominations
Keira Knightley
KING ARTHUR
never nominated
Kate Winslet
ROMANCE AND CIGARETTES / ETERNAL SUNSHINE
3 nominations
Ashley Judd
DE-LOVELY
never nominated
Jena Malone
ROSE AND THE SNAKE
never nominated
Catherine Keener
ROSE AND THE SNAKE
1 nomination
Anne Bancroft
SPANGLISH
noms / 1 win
Patricia Clarkson
DOGVILLE / THE WOODS
1 nomination
Caroline O Connor
DE-LOVELY
never nominated
Rebecca Romijn Stamos
GODSEND
never nominated
Julie Christie
JM BARRIE'S NEVERLAND
never nominated
Evan Rachel Wood
THE UPSIDE OF ANGER
never nominated
Monica Bellucci
THE BROTHERS GRIMM / THE PASSION
never nominated
Lauren Bacall
DOGVILLE / BIRTH
1 nomination
Joan Allen
THE NOTEBOOK
3 nominations
Scarlett Johansson
A GOOD WOMAN
never nominated
Claire Danes
STAGE BEAUTY
never nominated
Emily Mortimer
YOUNG ADAM
never nominated
Romola Garai
VANITY FAIR
never nominated
Rachel McAdams
THE NOTEBOOK
never nominated
Jane Krakowski
ALFIE
never nominated
Sandra Bullock
CRASH
never nominated
Kelly Macdonald
JM BARRIE'S NEVERLAND
never nominated
Radha Mitchell
JM BARRIE'S NEVERLAND
never nominated
Carrie Anne-Moss
SUSPECT ZERO
never nominated
Vanessa Redgrave
JM BARRIE'S NEVERLAND
never nominated
Gena Rowlands
THE NOTEBOOK
nominations
Susan Sarandon
ROMANCE & CIGARETTES / ALFIE
5 noms / 1 win
Zoe Tapper
STAGE BEAUTY
never nominated
Anjelica Huston
THE LIFE AQUATIC
2 noms / 1 win
Paz Vega
SPANGLISH
never nominated
Anne Heche
BIRTH
never nominated
Mimi Rogers
THE DOOR IN THE FLOOR
never nominated
Miranda Richardson
THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
2 nominations
Diane Kruger
TROY
never nominated
Naomi Watts
I HEART HUCKABEES / WE DON'T LIVE HERE ANYMORE
1 nomination
Alfre Woodard
THE FORGOTTEN
1 nomination
Lily Tomlin
I HEART HUCKABEES
never nominated
Marisa Tomei
ALFIE
2 nominations / 1 win
Judy Greer
THE VILLAGE
never nominated
Bryce Dallas Howard
THE VILLAGE
never nominated
Sigourney Weaver
THE VILLAGE
3 nominations
Isabelle Huppert
I HEART HUCKABEES
never nominated
Cecilia Suarez
SPANGLISH
never nominated





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