OSCAR COMMENTARY
by Nathaniel R

days until OSCAR NIGHT completes the film year

Best Actress in a Leading Role

See Final Predictions 3/5 Figured it was Theron and not Zhang getting the boot. And Allen not Knightley beating the odds.
Readers Choice: Reese Witherspoon took just over 50% of your votes.
See My Ballot 2/5 similar (Go Reese & Keira!)
Which Character Are You?
Long Story Short & Result: Reese Witherspoon will follow Julia Roberts lead (as she often has) to win her Oscar for playing a real-life person.

Judi Dench
Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman
Transamerica
Keira Knightley
Pride & Prejudice
Charlize Theron
North Country
Reese Witherspoon
Walk the Line
5th nom / 1 win
1st nomination
1st nomination
2nd nom / 1 win
1st nomination
Other Awards:
--
Role:
Mrs Henderson, widowed theatrical entrepeneur
Other Awards:
GG Tribeca GS Some Critics
Role:
Bree, a pre-operative transsexual
Other Awards:
NYFCO
Role:
Elizabeth Bennett, Jane Austen heroine
Other Awards:
--
Role:
Josey Aimes, sexual discrimination victim
Other Awards:
GS GG BFCA
SAG Most Critics
Role:
June Carter Cash, the famous musician
How'd They Get Nominated?
36% "Dame Judi Dench". That's a good part of the battle for a nom right there, right?
29% ...Role. They've always loved theatrical smart-ass divas: see also 2004
19% The performance. She could do it in her sleep but it's still hilarious/well-played.
10% Lack of passion for competitors.
5% AMPAS demo. When they can reward someone their own age, they often do...
1% The scene with the feather in the mirrors catches you off guard.
71% De-Glam!!! (The Role) Oscar's favorite annual Actress gimme. Take a beauty, dress her in ugly threads, unflattering makeup. She transforms. "Wow"
17% The performance. Broad and filled with "I'm acting!" tics but the nature of the role makes that not seem entirely inappropriate --it kinda works.
8% OMG. She is so great on Desperate Housewives [well, she is! -ed.]
3% Lots of "clips" drooling, crying, etc...
1% William H Macy
25% The Role. Elizabeth Bennett is an enduring beloved heroine for a reason.
25% The performance. Keira's bright energy & high spirits perfectly fuse with the role.
19% Lack of passion for competitors.
11% Very shades of Emma & Kate in Sense & Sensibility and Noni Ryder in Little Women We loved those.
12% Um, this movie is surprisingly good.
6% Oscar loves a fresh face. Plus: Adorable voice and accent.
2% The Hotness factor.
30% The Role. Victim with a traumatic past and a disadvantageed life gives one ample chance to gnaw on scenery. Court-room stand? [crunch]
30% The perf. Better than the film deserves.
14% Lack of passion for competitors.
12% Remember how great she was in Monster ?
10% The Hotness & Glamour. They need the glitz at the big show.
4% Frances McDormand [and no, I'm not kidding]
33% The Role is baity. Long-suffering spouse? Check. Famous star playing famous star? Check. Stretch? Check!
30% The performance. Sweet, sad, funny, but deeper than they're used to seeing her go (being a romantic comedy queen)
17% When given the opp'ty, AMPAS loves to rubberstamp a star.
11% Chemistry with Joaquin. It burns burns burns.
6% "Baby! Baby! Baby!"
3% Big populist hit.
Suggested Film Clips From Readers

"Let's have naked girls. Don't you think?" -Robert

Her impromptu speech when they're closing the theater -Arun

Meeting Mr. Van Damm.
-Ivory
"Fasten your seatbelt"
-Libro

Turning Lady Catherine out after her insult -cwrdlylyn

Dancing with Mr. Darcy - Stacey

Admiring the sculpture at Pemberton
-Rolando

Argument w/ Darcy in the rain- Steve
"No more secrets" talking w/ her son
-Ivory

The beer bottles-Arun

"Rule #1: Don't propose to a girl on a bus" -Robert

Sitting in the car crying - Chris
Who Should Win? Who Will Win?
Reese Witherspoon will take home the Oscar in the biggest female movie-star crowning event the Oscar's have indulged in since Julia Roberts won for Erin Brockovich 5 years back. The happy news? She also deserves it. Hers is both the biggest stretch (um, you try singing and playing musical instruments on film when you're not a musician) and the most beautifully 'unforced' of the five nominated performances. Reese never lets you see her sweat, a rarity in award-winning roles. Her June Carter Cash has great depth of feeling, surprising musical chops, and also does what Erin did for Julia: Proves an ideal fit for a true movie queen, playing on beloved strengths while entertaining us in new ways.
How'd I Do On My Predictions
3/5 or 60%. This was my worst predicted category in the Big Eight. I figured that, given the lack of true passion for many contenders this year, we'd see some surprises. I figured correctly that Charlize and Ziyi would not both make it. But I didn't figure which of them would not receive the invite. Nor did I forsee correctly which longshot would replace the snubbee. I assumed that Keira Knightley's BAFTA snub, on her home turf, was an indication that true support for the performance did not exist. Plus I just couldn't let go of...
Who Got Robbed?

...JOAN ALLEN in The Upside of Anger. Not only was it the best female performance of the year but Ms. Allen was also in two other films for which she won raves. She was sexy and fascinating in Yes and is also said to be stellar in a third small film Off the Map (which I unfortunately did not see).

I figured take the category most historically kind to early year releases, mix in the factor of former nominations for one of America's best actresses, add in the trifecta of acclaim... you have a nomination. Or at least you SHOULD have a nomination. This is not mere snubbage this year. This is plain old neglect of Academy voting duties. What I mean is this: Viewed through the awards/acclaim prism there are basically three types of great performances.

1) Performances that become major events in and of themselves --thus transcending boundaries of genre or whether or not the type of role would usually be honored (see Howard in Hustle & Flow for example.)
2) Performances that most everyone agrees are stupendous but virtually no one bothers to think of in terms of "statues" because they are too far beyond the pale. Maybe they're in very strange arthouse films [Kidman in Dogville] or more often than not they're in foreign films that about 500-1000 diehard cineastes on both coasts see and cherish [Devos in Kings and Queen neatly fits this bill this year]
3) The plain old kind. Easily recognizable as great to casual filmgoer, mainstream critic, and stodgy old Academy voter alike.

You probably see where I'm going with this. Joan Allen's film-carrying work in The Upside of Anger is this last kind. When these type of performances don't get nominated in what is almost universally regarded as a "weak year" for a particular category it means a whole lotta people just aren't taking their jobs very seriously. Shame on the Academy voters about this one. Shame on them.
But Back to the Nominees...
Factoids, Trivia, and "Did You Know?"s
age: 71
height: 5' 3"
sign: Sagittarius
from: North Yorkshire, England
status: Widow. One child.
pets? unknown
typical role: Feisty no-nonsense but wise authority figure or trusted relative.
other kudos: Many prizes for theater work.
bonus points: Also a great singer. Originated the Sally Bowles role in Cabaret onstage in London and later one awards for Sondheim's A Little Night Music.
trivia: of the Quaker faith.
favorites: unknown but she goes way back with Maggie Smith
possible supporters in the Academy? Maggie Smith, Ian McKellen, Kenneth Branagh, Joan Plowright, Cher, Jim Broadbent
asking price: unknown
next Oscar bid? An acting duet with Cate Blanchett (both starred as Queen Elizabeth in 1998) as schoolteachers with an uncomfortably close friendship in Notes on a Scandal
age: 43
(Same Birthday as Dame Judi Dench, December 9th)
height: 5'5"
sign: Sagittarius
from: New York & Colorado
status: Married (to William H Macy) w/ children
pets? unknown
typical role: take-charge women.
other kudos: Awards for TV work
bonus points: Stage trained.
trivia: Was actually offered the role in Transamerica before shooting began on the series Desperate Housewives.
favorites: Loves Tina Turner
possible supporters in the Academy? William H Macy, Kate Hudson, Joan Cusack, Alfre Woodard, David Mamet
asking price: unknown but she earns a very hefty quarter mil per episode on Desperate Housewives
next Oscar bid? No new film announced. More Emmy attention to come certainly for more seasons of DH.
age: 20 (Will be 21 a few weeks after Oscar night)
height: 5'7"
sign: Aries
from: Middlesex, England
status: Dating him
pets? unknown
typical role: Headstrong tomboy, often in period films.
other kudos: Breakthrough awards for Bend it Like Beckham.
bonus points: Not just a tomboy on screen? Relishes any physical activity --dance, boxing, swords, stunts. Or at least talks like she does.
trivia: Loves old movies.
favorites: Katharine Hepburn, Vivien Leigh.
possible supporters in the Academy? Geoffrey Rush, Clive Owen, Johnny Depp,
asking price: unknown but probably skyrocketing after one blockbuster Pirates and the unexpectedly large take for Pride, a film which she carried.
next Oscar bid? Two historical dramas upcoming:The Other Boleyn Girl (She plays Anne) & the 19th century set Silk with Alfred Molina and Michael Pitt)
age: 30
height: 5'9"
sign: Leo
from: South Africa
status: Dating him for four years now and have apparently stated they won't get married until gay people can.
pets? Four dogs.
typical role: Used to just be "the girlfriend" but, bless her, she's broken out and the range is starting to show.
other kudos:
bonus points: Apparently a great trained dancer (and reportedly wanted Renée's role in Chicago just like Toni Collette did)
trivia: She and Djimon Honsou are the most recent of merely a handful of African actors to be nominated for Oscars. She's the only one to have ever won.
favorites: Tom Hanks
possible supporters in the Academy? Geoffrey Rush, Woody Allen, Johnny Depp, Matt Damon, Ben Affleck
asking price: 10 million
next Oscar bid? Kimberly Peirce is finally going to follow up Boys Don't Cry. The movie is called The Ice at the Bottom of the World and it's a family estrangement drama .
age: 29 (Will be 30 a couple of weeks after Oscar night)
height: 5'2"
sign: Aries
from: Louisiana & Nashville, Tennessee
status: Married to Ryan Phillipe. 2 kids.
pets? One obese dog.
typical role: Underestimated blonde powerhouse.
other kudos: unknown
bonus points: not shy about admitting that she and ryan see a marriage counsellor. I love when stars show no shame about stuff that no one should feel shame about but everyone seeems to. Sets a good example.
trivia: Lost the Cape Fear role to Juliette Lewis around the time of her breakthru Man on the Moon (91)
favorites: unknown
possible supporters in the Academy? Alexander Payne, Joan Allen, Susan Sarandon, Gene Hackman
asking price: 15 million
next Oscar bid? Nothing in the immediate future. The next two are romantic comedies, something Oscar rarely if ever notices.