3/5 correct on my predictions. I missed Badgered and The Moon and the Son assuming they would go for Milch and Moongirl. My personal ballot? I wish. Somebody bring shorts back before MOVIES. instead of commercials. Please and thanks. That said. I have seen all of these. I just didn't get to see their competition.

Too Slight To Win:
I am normally not of the opinion that longer is automatically better. I like my films tight, to the point, and with no fat. But general aesthetic preference aside, in this particular case shorter does equal slight. Both One Man Band and Badgered are actually the perfect length for the amount of ideas and gags that they hold and their very simple narratives. Band is cute as can be, but not much else. Badgered is sweetly sly and maybe a smidgeon political, too. But in both cases the prize is the nomination.

Could Happen But I Doubt It:
Due to a reported feature deal with Universal, Shane Acker and "9" are swimming in the buzz. It is visually stunning, an evocative CG action piece about a rag doll, his murdered tribe, and roving mechanical monsters. Absent of dialogue you're free to project all sorts of narrative onto the short... which is a strength in this format, but I can't imagine how unsatisfying that tactic would be expanded to feature length. I'll see it, though.

Should Win:
Of all the entries I am rooting for the visually singular The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello which was the hardest for me to shake. Told with a bizarrely hypnotic combo of two dimensional sihouetted figures paired with elaborately constructed 3D ships and environs it really has to be seen in full to sufficiently absorb its beauty. But it's also cold, creepy, and a little gorey. So I'm thinking it's too risky in its choices for enough voters to get behind. Unless they're as hypnotized as I was.

Will & Did Win:
I think the most likely winner is the autobiographical The Moon and the Son: An Imagined Conversation which recounts the animators lifelong relationship with his abusive troubled father. Every minute of the film (the longest of the competing five) feels intensely personal, as if it's an exorcizm of his father's unruly ghost. I imagine it will be very moving for some viewers. But for me, it this imagined conversation felt too much like a therapy session in which I was the silent professional. And unfortunately I was not getting paid. The animation is clever, varied, and interesting but the script is entirely more standard in its beats.

2/3 correct on my predictions. I missed Howl's figuring it wasn't popular enough to unseat the blockbusters from the major studios. I'm SO glad I was wrong.
My personal ballot? 3/3. Yay!

Should & Will Win: All three of these films are good films. Well done Oscar. But Wallace & Gromit are the most beloved, most familiar, and will certainly win.

0/5 The ACADEMY never released an eligibility list so I was flying blind. Of the 18 films mentioned in the research, none ended up in the category. My personal ballot? I wish. Somebody bring shorts back before MOVIES. instead of commercials. Please and thanks.

Should Win: didn't see them
Will Win: Ausreisser (response seems to be hot)
Did Win: Six Shooter

3/5 I guessed based mostly on subject matter and acclaim and got it mostly right.
My personal ballot? I wish. Unfortunately despite many opportunities here in NYC Documentar remains my weak spot in the films I seek out. And once they snubbed Grizzly Man (even for the finalist list) I lost all interest anyway.

Should Win: no idea.
Will & Did Win: March of the Penguins is probably too big to ignore. But if they go elsewhere Darwin's Nightmare has a lot of right-now heat.

4/4 I guessed based mostly on subject matter and acclaim and got it all right. Of course I had an extra space with which to play since there are often 5 films.
My personal ballot? I wish. Unfortunately shorts are not easy to see.

Should Win: No idea. Films not available for viewing.
Will Win: God Sleeps in Rwanda. (I'm guessing)
Did Win: A Note of Triumph