OSCAR PREDICTIONS

by Nathaniel R

days until OSCAR NOMINATIONS ARE ANNOUNCED!
days until OSCAR NIGHT!

_France_ _to_ _Norway_

FOREIGN RELEASES (2005) BOX OFFICE /
FOREIGN COUNTRIES -OSCAR RECORDS / 2004 -LAST YEAR'S SUBMISSIONS

 

France
33 noms / 9 wins
Joyeux Noël
Christian Carion
official site
Georgia
1 nomination
Tbilisi-Tbilisi
Levan Zakareishvili
Germany
14 noms / 2 wins
Sophie Scholl -The Final Days
Marc Rothemund
official site
Hong Kong
5 nominations
Perhaps Love
Peter Chan
website
Hungary
8 noms / 1 win
Sorstalanság
(Fateless)
Lajos Koltai
official site
SPC -March 2006 (cuz that's good for an X-Mas flick?)
no US distribution
Zeitgeist
Opening TBA
no US distribution
THINKFilm
Opens Jan 2006
details
...
international stars on parade:
Diane Kruger (Troy), Benno Fürman (Princess & Warrior), Guillaume Canet (Love Me if You Dare) , and Daniel Brühl (Goodbye Lenin!)
synopsis

Christman Eve for WW I French, German, and Scottish soldiers.
misc info
...
academy reaction:
positive. And you know how much AMPAS likes to nominate France.
details
87 min ? 107 min?
starring
...
synopsis

Contemporary life in Georgia as viewed through the prism of an out of work filmmaker and screenwriter and the lives of his friends.
misc info
...
academy reaction:
mixed. AMPAS likes beautiful films above all else --especially in this category.
details
117 min (German)
starring
Julia Jentsch (The Edukators)
synopsis

A biopic on anti-Nazi heroine Sophie Scholl.
misc info
winner of 3 German Oscars and 2 silver bears at the BIFF
academy reaction:
very positive. Likely finalist.
details
??? min (Mandarin)
starring
The Pan Asian supertstar cast includes: pop star Jacky Cheung, Zhou Xun, Jin-Hee Ji, and Film Experience favorite Takeshi Kaneshiro (House of Flying Daggers)
synopsis

A behind the scenes romance takes place during the making of a musical.
misc info
of Hong Kong's Chairman of their Federation of Motion Film Producers calls it "the most unique film in Hong Kong film history". The DP is Peter Pau of Crouching Tiger fame.
not selected:
Jackie Chan's The Myth and Stanley Kwan's Everlasting Love
academy reaction:
positive. and the Academy likes musicals.
details
134 min (Hungarian, German)
starring
Marcell Nagy, Balint Pentek
synopsis

This Holocaust drama is based on the book about the deathcamp at Buchenwald.
misc info
This is the directorial debut of Oscar nominated cinematographer Lajos Koltai (Malena, Being Julia, Mephisto) Jeremy's Movie Martyr review
academy reaction:
has passionate supporters. but very very bleak for them.
Iceland
1 nomination
In Tune With Time (Í takt vid tímann)
Ágúst Gudmundsson
India
3 nominations
Paheli
(Mystery)
Amol Palekar
official site
Indonesia
never nominated
Gie
Riri Riza
official sitee
Iran
1 nomination
So Close, So Far (Kheli Dour Kheli Nazdik)
Reza Mir-Karimi
site

Iraq
1ST SUBMISSION
Requiem of Snow
Jamil Rostami
no US distribution
Now on DVD
no US distribution
no US distribution
no US distribution
details
??? min (Icelandic)
starring
The cast of 1982's Med Allt á Hreinu which this film is a sequel to.
synopsis

The story of the reunion of a band.
misc info
This is a musical comedy.
academy reaction:
mixed.
details
140 min (Hindi)
starring
Shah Rukh Khan, Rani Mukherjee, Suniel Shetty, Juhi Chawla, Amitabh Bachchan
synopsis

A folk tale about a woman who must choose between a ghost she loves and her long absent husband.
misc info
...
not selected:
The other two finalists were Black starring two of Paheli's actors and Hazaaron Khwaishein Aisi starring Shiny Ahuja. Previously considered was also Swades from Lagaan's director Ashutosh Gowariker
academy reaction:
they've gone Bollywood before. but this year? Not as likely.
details
...
starring
...
synopsis

This film is about a political activist Soe Hok Gie
misc info
...
academy reaction:
mixed to positive. But they don't usually nominate films that are very spcifically about the country's politics (i.e. American voting body has to be able to jump into it)
details
119 min. (Farsi)
starring
Masoud Rayegan, Fereshteh Sadr Orafaei, Elham Hamidi, and Mohsen Qazimoradi
synopsis

A self-absorbed man goes on a spiritual journey to locate and reconcile with his 18-year-old son.
misc info
The Iranian selection committee was impressed by the film's look at "the deeper complexities of the human psyche" The film swept Iran's Oscars including 4 acting awards for the actors listed above.
academy reaction:
mixed. but unlikeability of protagonist a problem for AMPAS.

details
90 min
starring
...
synopsis

In a land parched in drought a woman dreams of escaping her undesirable destiny and is kidnapped by an admirer.
misc info
This is the director's first full length feature.
academy reaction:
mixed to positive.

Israel
6 nominations
What a Wonderful Place
(Eize Makom Nifla)
Eyal Halfon
Italy
26 noms / 10 wins
La Bestia Nel Cuore (The Beast in the Heart)
Cristina Comencini
Japan
11 nominations
Blood & Bones
(Chi to Hone)
Yoichi Sai
official site
Korea
never nominated
Welcome to Dongmakgol
Kwang-Hyun Park
official site
Luxembourg
never nominated
Renart the Fox
Thierry Schiel
official site
no US distribution
no US distribution
no US distribution
no US distribution
no US distribution
details
104 min (Hebrew, Tagalog, Russian, English)
starring
Uri Gavriel, Avi Oria, Yossi Graber, Evelyn Kaplun
synopsis

?
misc info
?
not selected:
Muchrachim Lehiyot Samech (I'd call it Be Happy), Bekarov Yikre Lekha Mashehu Tov (Something Good Will Happen to You Soon), Karov L'Bayit (Close to Home) and L'Maryit Aein
academy reaction:
mixed. unlikeability of characters usually a problem for AMPAS
details
...
starring
...
synopsis

Family melodrama
misc info
Private by Saverio Costanzo (official site), which will open in the US (Typecast) in December was rejected by the Academy. Italy was allowed to resubmit. (more info)

not selected:
Handbook of Love, Consequences of Love, Days of Abandonment, Once You're Born You Can No Longer Hide, Quo Vadis, Baby? Smalltown, Italy,The Remains of Nothing, and Viva Zapatero!
academy reaction:
very positive.

details
140 min (Japanese, Korean)
starring
"Beat" Takeshi Kitano
synopsis

A violent drunk becomes a loan shark in post war Japan. It also deals with Japan and Korea's difficult relationship.
misc info
Based on a bestseller it received 12 nominations at the Japanese Oscars -but no best picture win.
academy reaction:
positive but maybe too harsh for AMPAS voters when it comes time for voting.
details
133 min (Korean)
starring
Ha-Kyun Shin, Jae-Yeong Jeong, Hye-Jeong Kang
synopsis

Based on a play about soldiers living amongst villagers who have no idea that a war is taking place.
misc info
...
academy reaction:
mixed to very positive. It has a shot.
details
...
starring
...
synopsis

...
misc info
Prizes in Montreal and Brussels but this category has not been kind to animated submissions. This is not the first but none have ever been nominated.
academy reaction:
mixed. the academy has never gone for an animated submission in this category.
Readers who contributed:
AD, Aldo, Alex, André, Anthony, Antonio, Arietro, Arkaan, Armando, Brent, Christian, Chusang, Cristian, Dante, Dario, Deknang, Elka, Engin, Enrique, Fabrizio, Felippe, Francesco, Geert, Jackie, Javi, Kamyar, Kartsten, Ken, Klemen, Kshitij, Luis, Marcelo, Marco, Marcos, Marfil, Mariette, Michael, Nacho, Noah, Nedim, Peo, Pepepaco, Rasmus, Rob, Rodney, Shay, Sina, Thomas, Victor, and Yonatan


High Profile --not submitted:

BELGIUM Calvaire (The Ordeal)
BRAZIL Casa de Areia (House of Sand) CHINA Kekexili and Kung Fu Hustle FRANCE
The Beat That My Heart Skipped and Kings and Queen MEXICO
Battle in Heaven
and Sangre

VENEZUELA
Secuestro Express

Academy Rejections / Disqualifications

(Rejected during submission or disqualified afterward:

AUSTRIA -Caché (Hidden)
BOLIVIA -Say Good Morning to Dad
GREECE -Brides
ITALY Private
NETHERLANDS -Bluebird
SINGAPORE -Be With Me
TAJIKISTAN -Sex & Philosophy
URUGUAY -Alma Mater
VENEZUELA -1888

Countries that did not submit this year
AFGHANISTAN * ECUADOR * EGYPT * MALAYSIA * PHILLIPINES
Mexico
5 nominations
Al Otro Lado
Gustavo Loza
Mongolia
never nominated
The Cave of the Yellow Dog
Byambasuren Davaa
Norway
5 noms/ 0 wins
Vinterkyss (Kissed by Winter)
Sara Johnsen
no US distribution
no US distribution
details
90 min (Spanish / Arabic)
starring
The great Carmen Maura as well as Vanessa Bauche (Amores perros), Nuriah Badih, and Ignacio Guadalupe.
synopsis

Three stories about immigration.
misc info
a minor hit in Mexico, celebrated by the mainstream media but not universally praised by the critics.
not selected:
Battle in Heaven from the divisive Carlos Reygadas. 3 Club, El mago/The magician, Ni muy muy ni tan tan, Sangre , Ver, oir & callar
academy reaction:
mixed to positive.
details
93 min (Mongolian)
starring
...
synopsis

A six year old girl saves an abandoned puppy life. But her Nomadic family believe the dog is bad luck.
misc info
from the director of the foreign hit The Story of the Weeping Camel
academy reaction:
positive. just their cup of tea.
details
...
starring
...
synopsis

a Norwegian doctor seeks to escape her troubled past in a wintry village
misc info
This is the director's first feature.
academy reaction:
positive. Norway could return to the shortlist. Longshot.




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