post announcement comments: I correctly guessed 70% of the list. And was right to assume that the NBR's reluctance to complelky give it up for Focus Features year after year would keep Brokeback out of the top placement. Woody Allen's Cannes sensation gets its first real boost of precursor season here too. Good Night, and Good Luck is looking as strong as ever for its BP bid with Oscar. Snubs? Cinderella Man and King Kong get the cold shoulder.

my predictions: We know that the NBR likes sexually controversial stuff. But they don't love Focus Features --which makes Brokeback Mountain a hard read. In the past few years the highest Focus placement has been #4. The bottom half of the NBR top 10 list is where you'll usually find the main Focus pushes (LiT, FFH, Pianist, etc...). The NBR also love Miramax who often take first prize and often have more than one film -one year even five! in the top ten. But Miramax is not the same old Miramax. Will the NBR transfer the love to the Weinstein Co? They also usually give a major award to a film opening right around the time they're announcing (past lucky synchronous films were Last Samurai, Closer, In the Bedroom) which is good news for Memoirs, Brokeback Mountain, Syriana, or Mrs Henderon Presents.

Where will the love go?

(top half of the list) Memoirs of a Geisha (Columbia) (#1) , Walk the Line (Fox) (#2) , Capote (SPC)#3, Munich (Universal) #4 , Goodnight and Good Luck (Warner Indie) #5
(bottom half of the list) Brokeback Mountain (Focus) #6,Mrs Henderson Presents (Weinstein), #7, Crash (Lions Gate)#8 Cinderella Man (Universal) #9, The Family Stone (Fox), #10
alternates: Just about everything but especially: The Constant Gardener & Pride & Prejudice (Focus), A History of Violence & The New World (New Line), Match Point (Dreamworks)

March of the Penguins

post announcement comments: Those cute penguins have too much mainstream appeal to be thwarted in their run for an Oscar. I was 80% correct on my guesswork.

my predictions: I'll say March of Penguins because it's ubiquitous. But also Murderball, Grizzly Man, Enron, and Mad Hot Ballroom

Julian Fellowes
Separate Lies

predictions: My 15 guesses (this is kind of their indie category thought they cheat a bit): A History of Violence, Junebug, Squid and the Whale, Me You & Everyone We Know, My Summer of Love, Happy Endings, Mysterious Skin, Hustle & Flow, Broken Flowers, The Dying Gaul, Three Burials, Nine Lives, The War Within, Thumbsucker, 40 Shades of Blue
alt: Brick, Beautiful Country, Heights, Transamerica

and IF they don't make the standard top 10 then: Capote and Goodnight and Good Luck