Awards
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'05 SAG
AWARD WINNERS
Nathaniel
R
CONGRATULATIONS TO THE WINNER
RITESH MEHTA who correctly guessed the winners of all five categories (and on the tiebreaker came the closest on the color wheel for the supporting actress gowns)CONGRATULATIONS TO THE RUNNER UP
'EVIANDESIRE' who also correctly guessed all five winners (the fashion predictions weren't so spot on, though!)CONGRATULATIONS (JUST FOR FUN) TO
Our fashion prophets. Even harder than guessing the winners? guessing the dress colors!
Greg Farrell and Toshiyuki Hasegawa were the only two contestants to get more than one dress correct. Greg foretold Williams in white and Weisz in blue. Toshiyuki somehow knew that Adams would be in in black and Keener in brown. And finally Adam Walkowski was the ONLY entry to name-check all of the correct colors that were actually worn by the four contestants who showed --unfortunately his crystal ball got the names with the wrong gowns --but still. He's the only one who knew the whole pallette. So that's something.THANK YOU
To everyone that entered and your kind comments about the site.
the blog has discussion of the ceremony
my comments below on each category
Best Ensemble
(Ledger, Williams, Gyllenhaal, Hathaway, Quaid)
(Hoffman, Collins, Keener, Cooper, etc...)
(Dillon, Newton, Phillipe, Cheadle, Howard, Bullock, etc...)
(Strathairn, Clarkson, Downey Jr, Daniels, etc...)
(Howard, Henson, Manning, etc...)Post-Ceremony Comments
As predicted the vast and populace Screen Actors Guild went for the big starry ensemble of Crash. Other than giving certain Brokeback Mountain haters something to gloat about this doesn't really change the Oscar race. Crash was always going to win this particular prize.
Pre-Ceremony Comments
Crash should take this prize with ease. They like big starry ensembles and Good Night and Good Luck is probably a shade too sophisticated and less buzzy. Brokeback could win I suppose, being an awards magnet, but I'm betting that SAGs diverse and populist voting body (the largest -by far- of any of the awards groupings out there) will go to the movie that the most people have seen.
Nomination comments:
Surprise. It's not George Clooney (Good Night & Syriana) with 2 Ensemble nominations but Ludacris (Hustle & Flow and Crash)! SAG usually throws one real curveball and Hustle & Flow is it. But it's a well acted film so that's cool. Happy for Taryn Manning and Taraji P Henson I am. I think this also suggests that Terrence Howard may really be able to pull off that Best Actor nomination for this even though he didn't make that category in the coresponding lineup here.Predictions: (60% correct. I missed Capote & Hustle & Flow)
BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN, CRASH, GOODNIGHT AND GOOD LUCK, SYRIANA, SQUID AND THE WHALE
Only three of these spots are really secure (BBM, Crash, GNaGL) --the other two spots could be virtually any combo. But they often are thinking of "Best Picture" when they vote. I chose SQUID with memories of THE STATION AGENT's small but delightful cast in mind. But it could be anything... They sometimes throw you for a total loop. It could just as easily be CINDERELLA MAN, MUNICH, PRIDE & PREJUDICE, MATCH POINT, or THE PRODUCERS, or even MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA or THE FAMILY STONE. Ya never know... It could even be WALK THE LINE because SAG has sometimes shown a complete disregard for the definition of "ensemble" if they like a film enough (see also MILLION DOLLAR BABY)
Best Actor Drama
"Capote"Post-Ceremony Comments
As predicted Hoffman won for Capote. This Oscar is all locked up. Awards voters can never ever ever ever ever resist as well regarded biopic performance. I probably over-believed in Ledger's chances all along. Ennis Del Mar being fictional and all, even if his sad life story is a million times more common than the one lived by Truman Capote.
Pre-Ceremony Comments
In a tight race between Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Heath Ledger, the prizes will continue to go to Hoffman since he's older, more generally respected (note: not neccessarily deservingly so), and stars in a biopic -that which ALWAYS gives you a headstart with awards groups (for reasons I will never clearly understand). The only problem with Hoffman's winning is that maybe just maybe the giant voting body of actors all over the country could go more populist to the hit films. Which means Hoffman could lose (just barely) to either Phoenix or Ledger. But my guess is he doesn't since they're blocking each others hot ascendant star votes. Who deserves it? A win for either Ledger orStrathairn would be heavenly.
Nomination comments:
SAG is always a little mainstream so I probably ought to have seen Russell Crowe coming. But perhaps I blocked it out because I just didn't want to believe that his antics wouldn't cost him. Most stars could not survive his PR year and get a nomination. Wonder why he's so immune? Don't say it's how great his performance is because you'd be hard pressed to convince me that he's better than Terrence Howard in Hustle & Flow. Or Jeff Daniels and Ralph Fiennes for that matter. But he still can't qualify as a surprise. This is the exact same lineup as BFCA (except for that they cheat so they can have an extra nominee and be more "accurate" at guessing Oscar)
Predictions: (80% correct. I missed Crowe (my 1st alt.) for Fiennes)
PHOENIX -Walk the Line * FIENNES -Constant Gardener * HOFFMAN -Capote * LEDGER -Brokeback Mountain * STRATHAIRN -Good Night and Good Luck
alt: CROWE -Cinderella Man * DANIELS -Squid and the Whale * HOWARD -Hustle & Flow
Best Actress
Reese Witherspoon
"Walk the Line"Post-Ceremony Comments
As predicted Reese Witherspoon continues on her march towards Oscar for playing June Carter Cash in Walk the Line. What I said about biopics above. Although I'm happy about this as its the best of the nominated five. AND suggests that the death grip of the "de-glam" trend is finally arthritic and weak. Hooray.
Pre-Ceremony Comments
I'm predicting (and hoping) that Reese Witherspoon is on her way to the Oscar and that SAG is the final step in getting there. Not only do I think it's the best of these five performances (by a good solid margin) but it would also mark the first nail in the coffin of the "de-glam" "So You Want To Win an Oscar?" How-To Handbook used this year by Huffman and previously by Theron --nominated again for a prettier (if still somewhat appropriately non-shiny) role. I really need this to end. You don't see Best Actor prizes going exclusively to mentally disabled characters anymore so how about some variety with the women? Sheesh. Thank you and good night.
Nomination comments:
Despite the lack of affection and enthusiasm for Charlize Theron's sophomore nomination, she still is chugging along. I predicted the Ziyi Zhang resurgence but I'm not happy about it. She's been better in literally EVERY other film I've seen her in. I'm not exaggerating for effect. She really is so much better than this. Huffman, Dench, & Witherspoon are still your Oscar locks. And even though this is the most predictive Oscar correlative category for SAG... I'm still thinking this is not the exact Oscar lineup. I'm still thinking we have another 2003 on our hands where all voting bodies disagreed. SAG only was 3 for 5 there that year.One more thing on Theron. I hope she's kissing Frances McDormand's ass on a regular basis. I firmly believe that if Frances McDormand weren't so strong in North Country Charlize would have faded from the race altogether by now. It's a flipside example of the more common situation where a supporting player gets coattails accolades because they're in a good film or paired with a terrific and memorable lead.
Predictions: (60% correct. I missed Dench --predicting a surprise snub for Ziyi. Although I was right about Ziyi. And I missed Theron)
ALLEN -Upside of Anger * HUFFMAN -Transamerica * WITHERSPOON -Walk the Line KNIGHTLEY -Pride & Prejudice * ZHANG -Memoirs (my surprise pic... though I won't be pleased)*
alt: WATTS -King Kong * DENCH -Mrs Henderson Presents
Best Supporting Actor
"Cinderella Man"Post-Ceremony Comments
As predicted Paul Giamatti walked away with the win for Cinderella Man. Will he win the Oscar? This is still a tough call. AMPAS voters might not want George Clooney to go home empty handed in such a strong year. So it's still "Clooney Vs. Giamatti" for the golden boy on March 5th.
Pre-Ceremony Comments
The Oscar race seems to have come down to Clooney and Giamatti. I'll give Giamatti the edge here because if he's not as popular as Clooney he's still popular within this community. Plus everyone (and I do mean everyone) is still pissed about Oscar passing him over last year for Sideways.Deserves to win? Well of these performances I like Gyllenhaal's the most. But since it's a lead role I'd vote for Matt Dillon who just missed my top five in this category. None of my hoices are likely nominees this year (sniffle).
Nomination comments:
Dillon, Clooney, Gyllenhall, and Giamatti get all locked up with this. When the same names crop up for every lineup, there you have it. The fifth spot is still a wildcard though. Cheadle will have to battle it out with Costner, Hoskins, Howard, Hurt, and extreme longshot veterans Sutherland and Langella who are both certainly well loved by OTHER awards voting bodies (Tonys, Emmys, etc...). That fifth spot is a bloodbath battle.
Predictions: (80% correct. I missed Don Cheadle for Crash who I thought was long gone from the race by now with no other mentions. They snubbed Kevin Costner from my predix who was obviously the weak link here, nominatability wise.)
COSTNER -Upside... * DILLON -Crash * GIAMATTI -Cinderella Man * GYLLENHAAL -Brokeback * CLOONEY -Syriana *
alt: LANGELLA -Good Night and Good Luck (I could totally see this happening) * HOWARD -Crash *Best Supporting Actress
"The Constant Gardener"Post-Ceremony Comments
I got this one wrong. I assumed that Rachel Weisz's Golden Globe would not be repeated and that Michelle Williams would take this one, proving that the Oscar race was still very hotly contested within this one category. But it seems that Rachel Weisz is your frontrunner. Still not convinced she's locked for the win with AMPAS. But definitely looking possible.
Pre-Ceremony Comments
The year's most hotly contested category. Still. Adams has the most critics prizes with Keener in close pursuit. Williams has the BFCA (shared with Adams). Weisz has the Globe. McDormand is just McDormand (hence the nomination -prize enough). I'm assuming that Williams is your winner because a) anyone could win. b) shes in the best picture of the year and c) she's building a nice career for herself and surviving the transition from TV stardom to dependable cinematic character actress.Deserves to win? This category is so rich you can make a case for almost any of them. Best category at ALL awards shows this year. Let's hope Oscar doesn't foul it up. And let's hope they restore Maria Bello (rudely snubbed by SAG)
Nomination comments:
Look at Amy Adams go! I still doubt the Oscaribility of it given how few people have seen the thing but her name keeps cropping up. She's great in the movie but I always thought it would go the way of Peter Sarsgaard in Shattered Glass --lots of precursor support, no Oscar nomination). And Keener continued to look strong for Capote. I think it's a terrific terrific performance but I still can't believe it's so solid in precursors as she has very little screen time and mostly says nothing. It's so NOT the typical thing they like for acting awards, though certainly deserving.
And can I just say one more thing. Regarding the eternal no-show Diane Keaton. I will never trust Kris Tapley, David Poland, or Jeffrey Wells again. All three of them saw a very early screening of The Family Stone. All three of them went on and on about Diane Keaton being our frontrunner. Now I am a huge Diane Keaton fan and I would be thrilled if she were nominated every other year rather than once a decade (her actual statistic and she was in the Oscar race just two years ago)... and when I finally got around to seeing The Family Stone I was like, "What? What is so great about this performance?" And again, remember, I am prone to worship at her feet and thought she should have won from the 2003 Oscar lineup. It's just one more example of how dangerous groupthink can be. You have to take those early early screening buzz situations with not only a grain of salt but a whole block or it.
Also I am pissed about Maria Bello's omission. Maybe it's the sexism problem again? She's just too strong? She's not their typical long-suffering spouse. She had balls of steel herself.
Predictions: (60% correct here missing Adams and Keener for Keaton and Bello)
BELLO -A History of Violence * KEATON -The Family Stone * MCDORMAND -North Country * WILLIAMS -Brokeback Mountain * WEISZ -Constant Gardener *
alt: JOHANSSON -Match Point * MACLAINE -In her Shoes * LI -Memoirs of a Geisha * ADAMS -Junebug
