OSCAR RACE 2006
commentary
by Nathaniel R
days until OSCAR NIGHT!
this
page contains a major spoiler for
Blood Diamond
so don't read the DiCaprio column if you haven't seen it
Best Actor in a Leading Role
FOREST WHITAKER in THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND
Final Predictions 3/5 I dumbly assumed they'd choose the superior DiCaprio performance (The Departed). Also missed Gosling but mostly because I feared his tiny film wouldn't be seen by enough voters
Readers Choice: 31% of you chose Ryan Gosling as most deserving but he only beat Whitaker by 3 votes. A squeaker
See My Ballot 2/5 similar Both Gosling and Whitaker are completely deserving of that Oscar. How about a tie?
Long Story Short: Forest Whitaker's long precursor awarded lead paid off on Oscar night.
| Leonardo
DiCaprio Blood Diamond |
Ryan
Gosling Half Nelson |
Peter
O'Toole Venus |
Will
Smith The Pursuit of Happyness |
Forest
Whitaker The Last King of Scotland |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
19
Films 3rd nom / 0 wins |
9
Films first nomination |
50
Films + lots of voice work 8th nom / 0 wins / 1 honorory Oscar |
15
Films 2nd nom / 0 wins |
39
Films 1st nom & win |
Other
Awards: None Role: Danny Archer, a South African diamond smuggler |
Other
Awards: NBR (Breakthrough), Seattle & Stockholm Festivals (Best Actor) Role: Dan Dunne, a junior high school teacher with a nasty addiction |
Other
Awards: None Role: Maurice, a comfortably famous dying actor who lusts after a much younger woman |
Other
Awards: None Role: Chris Gardner, a struggling single father and would-be stock broker |
Other
Awards: NBR, Many Critics Prizes , GG and BFCA Role: Idi Amin, the brutal and paranoid Ugandan dictator |
How'd
They Get Nominated? |
||||
46%
The Role. A redemption character arc (!), an accent (!!)
and a death scene with a monologue (!!!) 37% The Departed. He had a big year of acclaim and box office but that campaign --eventually people pretended he was supporting. Although usually the Academy doesn't mind category fraud. I wonder why he didn't get two noms? 11% The performance 4% Enormous movie star wattage. A plus in serious baity movies 2% Charisma |
58%The
Performance. Became a minor critical event. Clearly an actors actor
22% The Role. The Academy likes taeachers. They also like drug addicts 17% His chief competitors were in either comedies or action films. Both or which are big minuses for Oscar voters 3% People are really rooting for Rachel McAdams and him to become big stars. Even if they don't seem entirely eager to do so |
53%
He's Peter O'Toole. He's Lawrence of Arabia, Emperor Tiberius
Caesar, Don Quixote, Henry II (twice over), and The Earl of Gurney.
Like Streep he's both legendary actor and a great raconteur --both
advantages for Oscar races 41% Performance & Role (how to separate them?) A famous actor faces his last days 3% Lack of competition this year 2% Honorary Oscar fresh in the mind 1% Collective guilt |
47%
The Role. Oscar loves it when they're based on real people.
Baity elements include man tears and triumph over great adversity
including poverty 25% Big hit. Or, more importantly, he made it a big hit. He can sell anything. Hollywood, an industry after all, admires that. 10% Huge star. Oscar likes to reward them when he can 9% The Performance. Solid. 6% Acting with his son was great press hook 3% Charisma |
38%
The Performance: Mimicry is AMPAS's favorite actorly skill and he's mesmerizing as Idi Amin 37% Role. They love movies about famous people. Leaders are a plus (see also: Mirren) 10% James McAvoy's as a partner. Even if no one noticed, the duet made the film special 8% Character actor gets juicy lead role. Great opportunity to reward a lengthy admired career. 7% Timing. Got an early lead and critics kept pushing |
Should
Win / Will Win |
||||
Should
Win:
Ryan Gosling. I chose him by a hair over the mesmerizing
Forest Whitaker for three reasons. 1) His role is more difficult. He has no template from which to draw and yet the character feels as fully formed and specific as any real life figure. 2) There are no filmmaking pyrotechnics enhancing his devastating work --Forest's imposing fearsome creation is aided by moody lighting, heavy duty sound work and horrific violent imagery. 3) Forest has a scene partner (James McAvoy) who actually carries the film. Ryan got his entire film on his shoulders and brings to it an impressive range of mood and feeling, considering how one note the film could have been. Nevertheless it was a close close call and I will be very pleased when Forest Whitaker wins Will Win: Only two men picked up multiple prizes in precursor season and one of them (Sacha Baron Cohen for Borat) is not even nominated, which means it's Forest Whitaker's to lose. But he won't. Edited to add: And he didn't |
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How'd
I Do On My Predictions? |
||||
3/5
for 60% or, if you're
nice and allow me DiCaprio but for the wrong film than 80%.
Obviously that was a case of wishful thinking since
I can't figure any way in which his Blood Diamond performance
is superior to his searing work in The Departed. I also missed
Gosling in the reverse of wishful thinking. I feared his tiny film
wouldn't be seen by enough voters and that Borat would be
a surging surprise choice due to zeitgeist penetration. |
||||
Who
Got Robbed? |
||||
 I'd
like to first point out that James McAvoy got the kudos shaft for
his great work as Whitaker's scene partner in Scotland. He
matches him blow for blow. Their riveting duet makes the film. But
in terms of actors who were in play for awards this year the snubee
that upsets me most is Daniel Craig who revitalized
a very fossilized character and franchise with his typically stellar
work in Casino Royale. Oh well, at least his home team Academy
(the BAFTAs) nominated him. My ballot here |
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Factoids
/ Trivias / Did You Knows? |
||||
DICAPRIO 32 years old, 5'11" * Roles almost played by him "Patrick Bateman" in American Psycho and "Dirk Diggler" in Boogie Nights and Matt Damons role in The Good Shepherd * Salary $20 millon per film * Will reteam with Scorsese for yet another biopic (after The Aviator) The Rise of Theodore Roosevelt) |
GOSLING |
O'TOOLE |
SMITH |
WHITAKER |
