first nomination

Should Win: In most years I’d be pleased to have three of these films winning my personal vote. Dreamgirls has sensational color and theatrical snap, The Devil Wears Prada is the best modern costume designing since Kill Bill or The Royal Tenenbaums, and Marie Antoinette is thrillingly realized period but with enough twist for freshness and joy in the work. I give the slight edge to Milena Canonero who is a legend for a reason for her work on Marie Antoinette. But really, well done across the board.

Will Win: I’m guessing this is a death match between the razzle dazzle of Dreamgirls and the puff pastry “ridiculous” Versailles couture in Marie Antoinette. If AMPAS is feeling frisky and the three excessively threatical pieces (Dreamgirls, Marie, and Curse of…) split the voting block that love their costumes period, very noticeable and in abundance, The Devil Wears Prada could emerge as a surprise winner, the first contemporary film to win since Adventures of Priscilla, Queen of the Desert which, like Prada, was loved by drag queens everywhere. I’d say The Queen and Curse of the Golden Flower are the least likely to win but both were recently rewarded by the Costume Design Guild, so it comes down to this: all five films will be getting votes.

I’m predicting Dreamgirls by a hair or maybe a sequin. Voters do prefer musicals in this category. Chicago, Moulin Rouge!, Topsy Turvy, All That Jazz, Camelot, My Fair Lady, West Side Story, Gigi, The King and I and An American in Paris were all winners in this category in their years.

EDITED TO ADD: In the end they chose a third Oscar for the legendary and brilliant Milena Canonero for her work on Marie Antoinette (my favorite of the year)