Best Actor in a Supporting Role
ALAN ARKIN in LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE

Final Predictions 4 /5 I missed only Wahlberg assuming that AMPAS would stick with their beloved Jack. I'm glad they chose the better performance.
Readers Choice: Your votes went to Mark Wahlberg primarily but most of the nominees did well
My Ballot 3/5 similar. I can do without Arkin (the least impressive of the four male performances in Sunshine) and Hounsou who is essentially a lead and is given almost nothing to do other than scream and run and is saddled with carrying the "saint" burden of simplistic movies like this one.
Long Story Short: Dreamgirl's Eddie Murphy has the lead but can he keep it?

Alan Arkin Little Miss Sunshine	Jackie Earle Haley Little Children	Djimon Hounsou Blood Diamond	Eddie Murphy Dreamgirls	Mark Wahlberg The Departed
54 films 3rd nom / first win!	13 Films first nomination	21 Films 2nd nom / 0 wins	27 Films & Shrek series first nomination	18 Films first nomination
Other Awards: None Role: 'Grandpa', addict and amateur dance choreographer	Other Awards: Several Critics Prizes Role: Ronnie J. McGorvey, sex offender	Other Awards: Critics Prizes & NBR Role: Solomon Vandy, concerned father on the run	Other Awards: Golden Globe Role: James "Thunder" Early, an R&B star with a drug addiction	Other Awards: Critics Prizes Role: Dignam, foul-mouthed determined Boston cop
How'd They Get Nominated?
35% The Role: that grumpy old man shtick never gets old for audiences. This one has fresh spin 20% Little Miss Sunshine: easy to love and well campaigned 20% Performance. Everyone holds their own in the ensemble 17% Terrific chemistry with Abigail Breslin 7% Longevity breeds respect 3% Bait! Oscar loves a drug addict	46% The Performance: brave, memorable and the critics came out in loud support 42% “Comeback” campaign angle, AMPAS loves those stories. Memories of “Moocher” and “Kelly Leak” don't hurt 10% Kate Winslet’s high profile in the correlative Best Actress race. 2% The Role. Could've been a drawback but he makes it work	38% Performance -an excess of bait: tears & histrionic screaming 31% The Role: He's stuck in these fantasy 'noble innocent' roles but AMPAS loves 'em 18% Timing. Peaking as ballots went out 4% Busy -will star in anything. Probably knows everyone 4% Hotness 2% Likeability 2% Still making it up to him for Amistad? 1% Leonardo DiCaprio	75% Performance and Role: When you’re a huge star and you're cast in a magically appropriate role it can equal kudos, box office and even Oscar magic 10% “Comeback” Never went away but critical rep restored 9% “Jimmy got --Jimmy got --Jimmy got soul” Really fun frequent song & dance numbers 5% Dreamgirls hype 1% Bait! Drug addict	43% Performance: Always watchable but even more energized in supporting roles 32% The Role --or rather The Dialogue. Memorable, hilarious. “Maybe. Maybe Not. Maybe F*** Yourself” 12% standout in amazing ensemble and well liked film 10% Career trajectory. Fun to root for 3% Boogie Nights, Three Kings, I Heart Huckabees
Should Win / Will Win
Should Win: Haley, Murphy, and Wahlberg are all on my ballot but my actual vote would go to Mark Wahlberg Will Win: It's tough to say. I'm guessing that it's a race between the drug addicts: It'll go to either Alan Arkin (the beloved veteran vote --plus the Little Miss Sunshine constituency) or Eddie Murphy (the angry snubbed Dreamgirls voting block and those that love their big movie stars to have Oscars ). Murphy is the frontrunner and though I initially thought that Arkin would pull off the upset I think that buzz didn't shift soon enough and Mark Wahlberg is also pulling some "not Murphy" votes preventing Arkin from pulling ahead. At any rate I think it will be very very close and none of the three would surprise me as winners. Edited to add: God damnit. I had this right for weeks and then changed back to Murphhy at the last minute. Arkin emerged triumphant
How'd I Do On My Predictions?
4/5 for a strong 80% score. This was a difficult race to guess. We saw a rare case of each precursor going their own way which led to nine or so candidates with a real shot at shortlisting.
Who Got Robbed?
Given the relatively wide open race in this category one could argue that several people were snubbed, especially such luminaries as Brad Pitt (Babel), Jack Nicholson (The Departed) and Ben Affleck (Hollywoodland) who had all received precursor support from various organizations. But none of them are great losses for those particular performances. To me the strangest omission all season was the work of Steve Carell in Little Miss Sunshine. See my ballot for the reasons why...
Factoids / Trivias / Did You Knows?
ARKIN 72 years -old * He also directs and is a musician * His previous nominations came in the leading actor category in the 60s: The Russians Are Coming! The Russians Are Coming! and The Heart is a Lonely Hunter	HALEY 45 years-old * The shortest nominee @ 5' 5 & 1/2" * Got the part due to impressing Kate Winslet (presumably the director, too) he also co-starred with her in All the Kings Men * Got famous for young roles in The Bad News Bears and Oscar nominee Breaking Away but his career shifted to TV guest spots	HOUNSOU 42 years-old * The tallest nominee @ 6'2" * Started as a model. Discovered by Thierry Mugler * One of only five African-born people to receive Oscar noms (after Ted Moore, Basil Rathbone, Cecil Kellaway, and Charlize Theron) * His middle name is "Gaston"	MURPHY 45 years-old * 5th (?) SNL regular to win an Oscar nomination (after Dan Aykroyd, Joan Cusack, Bill Murray and Robert Downey Jr)	WAHLBERG 35 years-old. Second shortest nominee @ 5'7" * Has two kids * Like Hounsou, his muscled physique helped him get famous *