OSCAR RACE 2006

commentary by Nathaniel R

days until OSCAR NIGHT

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Jennifer Hudson in Dreamgirls

Final Predictions 5 /5 Did well here. Even before Breslin settled in as our fifth slotter, it was obvious where this one was going. She is the heart of arguably the year's most beloved film
Readers Choice: You went for Jennifer Hudson
See My Ballot 1/5 similar. Only Barraza made my list
Long Story Short: She's your Dreamgirl: Jennifer Hudson takes this easy.

Adriana Barraza
Babel
Cate Blanchett
Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin
Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson
Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi
Babel
5 Films
first nomination
4,799 Films
3rd nom / 1 win
9 Films
first nomination
Debut Film
first nomination
12 Films
first nomination
Other Awards:
Critics Prize
Role:
Amelia, a loving but careless nanny of two American children
Other Awards:
Critics Prizes
Role:
Sheba Hart, an emotionally reckless art teacher
Other Awards: Some Breakthru Prizes
Role:
Olive Hoover, beauty pageant obsessed baby of the family
Other Awards:
Many Critics Prizes, GG BFCA and NBR
Role:
Effie White, a proud and abandoned singer
Other Awards:
NBR (Breakthru) & Critics Prizes
Role:
Chieko, a lonely deaf teenager
How'd They Get Nominated?
55% The Performance. Emotionally impactful without showboating while still giving the type of clip worthy drama Oscar lives for
23%
Babel is popular and well campaigned
18
% The role is heart tugging and mostly sympathetic
3% That red dress in the dessert. She's the star of the film's most 'sticky' mental image
1%
Oscar's new diversity trending
29% She's Cate Blanchett.
26% Lead Role and a juicy histrionic one. Both are advantages
18%
Performance
15%
Judi Dench
8% the scene where she freaks --mascara gone wild and press baiting. Oscar loves it when actresses lose their marbles.
3%
Hotness.
1% Oscar's love affair with Aussies: They're the new Brits.
56% The Role and the Film. Both are charmers
20
% The performance. Quite a strong child actor: not too fussy or rehearsed
11% Great campaign. Fox Searchlight was working hard all year.
8%
"Am I pretty?" got both her and her scene partner nominated.
5%
The endearing disarming squeal that kicked off the movie "I won, I won, I won"
70% "And I Am Telling You (I'm Not Going)" That voice! That song! That Act One Climax!
12%
Media shilling & nonstop campaign provided endless buzz: a must-see performance. Plus rave reviews for her work
8
% The Role is classic
8% The Performance -she got the job done
2%
American Idol -she showed them ~ triump over failure hook
34% The Role -Oscar bait: A disability and unusual & memorable
33%
The Performance. Commited and intriguing. You want to see her again
20%
Babel is popular and well campaigned
7%
Her section of Babel stands out -partially because it feels so removed
5%
Kindest category to fresh young talent
1%
Oscar's new diversity trending
Should Win / Will Win
Should Win: Adriana Barraza who carefully fleshes out the fullest portrait in the well populated Babel. Even when Amelia's actions are totally maddening, Barraza keeps you fully invested in the characters well being, which makes the finale all the more devastating
Will Win: Jennifer Hudson probably won the Oscar the day she landed this iconic role. Oscar will reward her astonishing vocal prowess and her sassy way with a quip. Breslin will probably superfreak her way into runner up status
How'd I Do On My Predictions?
5/5 for a perfect 100% score. But it wasn't hard to guess: These five women had a lot going for them throughout precursor season. Barraza and Kikuchi got the critical support relative unknowns need for Oscar nominations, Breslin was the heart of arguably the year's most beloved film, Hudson delivered in her showstopper "And I Am Telling You" and Cate Blanchett is Cate Blanchett in a juicy lead role
Who Got Robbed?
Emily Blunt stole the show as desperate shallow personal assistant in one of the year's biggest hits, The Devil Wears Prada. She had a high profile notice in that Golden Globe nomination but Oscar's anti-comedy bias can trip even the best performances up. My guess is she was in 6th place which makes Blanchett's category fraud all the more frustrating. (See my ballot for more worthy work in this category)
Factoids / Trivias / Did You Knows?
BARRAZA
Frequently works as an acting coach in spanish televion and feature films (Spanglish)
*
This is her second Inñaritu film with Gael Garcia Bernal. She was also excllent as the chilling Mama Octavia in Amores Perros
BLANCHETT
37 years old
*
Her next three projects are all repeats of a sort: She'll play another 20th century icon (not Kate Hepburn but Bob Dylan this time), reprise her Elizabeth performance in The Golden Age, and have another go at herBabel screen hubby Brad Pitt in Benjamin Button
BRESLIN
10 years old and the fourth youngest actress ever nominated. But even if she won the Oscar Tatum O'Neal would still hold the record for youngest winner
*
Played Mel Gibson's water loving daughter in Signs
*
For all my joking about her rivalry with Dakota Fanning they are reportedly friends
HUDSON
25 years old
*
Was booted off of --Well, you knew that already
*
She has a blog but don't get too excited -- there are only three short entries in the past three months.
KIKUCHI
26 years old
*
swordfighting skills. those come in handy in the Asian film market
*
official website
 

 

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