OSCAR RACE 2006
commentary by Nathaniel R

days until OSCAR NIGHT!

Related Stuff: GLOBES / CRITICS / PRECURSORS / SAG

 

OSCAR NIGHT WRAP UP
Dreamgirls, Goodfellas, Power Lesbians and more
Best & Worst, Winners, and More

 

previous articles:
Panscakes for Breakfast * Oprah's Oscar Special * Babel: Can You "Bank" On It? *
Oscar's Labyrinth, How Many Oscars Will Pan's Win?

previous articles: Oscar Symposium
 Immediate Reactions and Ten Talking Points

WINNERS IN RED. Prediction Success Ratio was 15/24 (OUCH)

PIC

Babel
(Paramount)
The Departed
(Warner Bros)
Letters From Iwo Jima
(Dreamworks/ Warner Bros)
Little Miss...
(Fox Searchlight)
The Queen
(Miramax)

DIR

Babel
(Innaritu)
The Departed
(Scorsese)
Letters From...
(Eastwood)
The Queen
(Frears)
United 93
(Greengrass)

ACTOR

DiCaprio
(Blood Diamond)
Gosling
(Half Nelson)
O'Toole
(Venus)
Smith
(Pursuit of...)
Whitaker
(Last King of)

ACTRESS

Cruz
(Volver)
Dench
(Notes on a Scandal)
Mirren
(The Queen)
Streep
(Devil Wears...)
Winslet
(Little Children)

Winner Prediction:
The Departed
CORRECT

prev -the noms
Letters used that long-legged critical media push to unseat the ever longer (perhaps overkill) legged buzzing of Dreamgirls

4/5 prediction score

Winner Prediction:
you know who. CORRECT

prev -the noms
I correctly predicted Condon's snub and foresaw that that Eastwood mythos would carry him. But I assumed Greengrass' time had passed. Wrong.

4/5 prediction score

Winner Prediction:
Forest Whitaker
CORRECT

prev -the noms
Shoulda stayed with my original predictions. Gosling held on. Yay!

3/5 prediction score -got DiCaprio but for the wrong movie. And it is the wrng movie if you know what I'm saying

Winner Prediction:
Helen Mirren
CORRECT

prev -the noms
Exactly as expected by everyone and their mother and their friends and their dog and their dogs fleas. Etc... Good list. Love the silver foxes.

5/5 prediction score

SUPP. ACTOR

Arkin
(Little Miss ...)
Haley
(Little Children)
Hounsou
(Blood Diamond)
Murphy
(Dreamgirls)
Wahlberg
(The Departed)

SUPP. ACTRESS

Barraza
(Babel)
Blanchett
(Notes on a Scandal)
Breslin
(Little Miss...)
Hudson
(Dreamgirls)
Kicuchi
(Babel)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Babel
Letters From Iwo
Little Miss...
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY


Borat
Children of Men
The Departed
Little Children
Notes on a Scandal

Winner Prediction:
Eddie Murphy
WRONG -It was Arkin

prev -the noms
My hunch paid off. I only mistook Departed love for Jack rather than Wahlberg. But I'm glad I was wrong.

4/5 prediction score

Winner Prediction:
Jennifer Hudson
CORRECT

prev -the noms
What I said for Best Actress. Only without the great list part. Blanchetts is a leading role which just irks me. I'll give you that Hudson is very debatable. Blanchett though: not

5/5 prediction score

Winner Prediction:
Little Miss Sunshine
CORRECT

prev -the noms
Letters grabbed the spot (unexpectedly --it wasn't my alternate) from Stranger Than Fiction. It's a bettter screenplay so that's good but where the hell is Volver. Grrrrr.

4/5 prediction score

Winner Prediction:
The Departed
CORRECT

prev -the noms
both my alternateds: Borat & CoM made it in. Unseating the quips of Prada and the successful (up till now) Oscar campaign of Thank You For Smoking.

3/5 prediction score

Cinematography

Black Dahlia
Zsigmond
Children of Men
Lubezki
The Illusionist
Pope
Pan's Labyrinth
Navarro
The Prestige
Pfister

Art Direction

Dreamgirls
Myhre
Good Shepherd
Oppewall
Pans Labyrinth
Caballero
Pirates (2)
Heinrichs
The Prestige
Crowley

Costume Design

Curse of Golden...
Yee
Devil Wears Prada
Field
Dreamgirls
Davis
MarieAntoinette
Canonero
The Queen
Boyle

Editing

Babel
Crise, Mirrione...
Blood Diamond
Rosenblum
Children of Men
Rodriguez
The Departed
Schoonmaker
United 93
Douglas & Rouse

Winner Prediction:
Children of Men
WRONG. it was Pan's Labyrinth

prev -the noms
I'm so impressed that they were willing to steer so clear of Best Picture. Good for them. These are all good looking films.

3/5 prediction score

Winner Prediction:
Pan's Labyrinth
CORRECT

prev -the noms
I'm of the opinion that they negated their entire list by snubbing Children of Men --obviously genius production design.

2/5 prediction score

Winner Prediction:
Dreamgirls
WRONG. It was Marie Antoinette

prev -the noms
How proud am I of them for recognizing not one but TWO contemporary pictures --I count The Queen -- those aren't really period clothers.

3/5 prediction score

Winner Prediction:
Babel
WRONG. It was The Departed

prev -the noms
I did pretty well here considering. But I am surprised to see Dreamgirls given the boot.

3/5 prediction score

SCORE

Babel
Santaolalla
Good German
Newman
Notes on Scandal
Glass
Pan's Labyrinth
Navarrete
The Queen
Desplat

FOREIGN

Algeria
Canada
Denmark
Germany
Mexico

SOUND MIXING

Apocalypto
Blood Diamond
Dreamgirls
Flags of...
Pirates of

SONG

Cars
"Our Town"
An Inconvenient Truth
"I Need to Wake Up"
Dreamgirls
"Listen"
Dreamgirls
"Patience"
Dreamgirls
"Love You, I Do"

Winner Prediction:
Pan's Labyrinth
WRONG. It was Santoalla again

prev -the noms
I always have a terrible terrible ratio of success here. Possibly I'm letting my own feelings interfere too much. And by feelings I mean EARS.

2/5 prediction score

Winner Prediction:
Lives of Others
CORRECT

prev -the noms
I'm happy that my girl Susanne Bier managed a nod for Denmark with After the Wedding. But the snub of Volver. That's UGLY. Shame on the Academy

4/5 prediction score

Winner Prediction:
Dreamgirls
CORRECT


prev -the noms
WOW. I did well here. I'm kinda surprised.

4/5 prediction score

Winner Prediction:
I Need to Wake Up
CORRECT

prev -the noms
They went hogwild for Dreamgirls. I love that MELISSA ETHERIDGE will be performing at the Oscars. Wheeeeeee. Why did I doubt Randy Newman? They go for him like they go for John Williams.

3/5 prediction score

VISUAL fx

Pirates (2)
Poseidon
Superman Return

MAKEUP

Apocalypto
Click
Pan's Labyrinth

SOUND EDITING

Apocalypto
Blood Diamond
Flags of Our...
Letters From Iwo
Pirates (2)

ANIMATED

Cars
Happy Feet
Monster House

Winner Prediction:
Pirates 2
CORRECT

prev -the noms
Poseidon resurfaces (har-dee-har-hard). The other two expected

2/3 prediction score

Winner Prediction:
Pans Labyrinth
CORRECT

prev -the noms
I am always so grossed out and bewildered by the choices in this category

2/3 prediction score

Winner Prediction:
Pirates 2
WRONG. it was Letters From Iwo Jima

prev -the noms
OUCH. Without the Guild announcing early it's so hard to predict.

2/5 prediction score

Winner Prediction:
Cars
WRONG. it was Happy Feet

prev -the noms
As expected though it's a shame the best film by far (Monster House) won't win.

3/3 prediction score

ANIMATED SHORT

The Danish Poet
Lifted
Little Match Girl
Maestro
No Time For Nuts

LIVE ACTION SHORT

Binta and the Great Idea
(Binta Y La Gran Idea)
Éramos Pocos
(One Too Many)
Helmer & Son
The Saviour
West Bank Story

DOCUMENTARY
SHORT

The Blood of Yingzhou District
Recycled Life
Rehearsing a Dream
Two Hands

DOCUMENTARY
FEATURE

Deliver Us from Evil
An Inconvenient Truth
Iraq in Fragments
Jesus Camp
My Country My Country

Winner Prediction:
Little Match Girl
WRONG. It was The Danish Poet

prev -the noms
I was taking wild guesses. Ouch. Got only the Disney & Pixar correct and they were no brainers

2/5 prediction score

Winner Prediction:
Binta & The Great Idea
WRONG. it was West Bank Story

 

No Predictions on nominations

Winner Prediction:
Blood of Yingzhou District
CORRECT

 

No Predictions on nominations

Winner Prediction:
An Inconvenient Truth
CORRECT

prev -the noms
Both my alternates made it in. The Dixie Chicks did not. And there's no WW II: amazing.

3/5 prediction score

 

Pre Oscar Notes - Final (Toss Up) Oscar Predictions

February 24th Despite my feelings about the past cinematic year (i.e. not so great in total) I'm more than a little thrilled that I don't know what to expect tomorrow night at the Oscars. I fully expect to have the worst prediction average of my entire life and that is a great thing. The Oscars should be unpredictable. You shouldn't be able to add it up like "this + this = that" even though I'll be the first to admit that it's fun and addictive to do that particular brand of glitzy math.

If you take a quick look around the 'net you'll see that all five of the nominated pictures have convinced someone or other that they're going to win. The old phrase "no one knows anything" is more appropriate than ever. Some people will be right. Some people will be wrong. But hopefully no one will gloat. Because really... everyone is unsure this year as to where the big prize is going (or a lot of the "smaller" prizes for that matter). So perhaps we should put it this way: some people's wild guesses will be more right than other people's wild guesses.

That's all.

As for myself, I've opted to go for a 'spread the wealth' year... rather like last year with no film winning more than three and The Departed, Dreamgirls and Pan's Labyrinth leading... although I know it could just as easily be Babel, Little Miss Sunshine, and Pan's Labyrinth that end up with the most statues. Either way Pan's does well (even if it loses Foreign Film) and Mirren & Hudson (the two surest things) take Oscar home.