OSCAR RACE 2007
commentary
by Nathaniel R
days
until OSCAR NIGHT
Key: green (lock) yellow (solid bets) red (longer shots) blue (doubtful but possible)
Best
Actor - January 20th
Predictions discuss on the blog |
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| 01/20 Johnny Depp looking more and more plausible as a shutout as Sweeney fades. But really any combo of the top six give or take a surprise (surprises always feel more plausible when someone is hogging too many of the #1 spots on a thousand ballots --hi, Daniel Day-Lewis!) feels tantalizingly within reach. A weird year. Is Emile Hirsch about to become the youngest nominee in many many many years? 01/07 With six men (Day-Lewis, Clooney, Depp, Mortensen, Hirsch, Gosling) getting regular attention it feels like almost anyone could get the snub on Oscar nomination morning. There's only room for five. Plus there's the wild cards : Denzel's stardom could still let him coast in, Langella's has sudden critical caché (I liked the performance well enough but I'll be horrified if that late entry sneak unseats someone as masterful as... well, I can't even say it. Let's not jinx it. Really only Day-Lewis and Clooney seem impervious to snubs. 12/17 Day-Lewis, Depp, and Clooney can start planning their schedules around Oscar night. My guess is that any combo of two from the foursome of McAvoy, Mortenson, Hirsch and Washington is imminently possible. In a better world Viggo Mortenson would be locked and loaded by now but there are always things beyond performance to consider |
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| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
| Daniel
Day-Lewis There Will Be Blood 3 noms / 1 win prev: 1,2,1,1,1,3,2,2 |
George
Clooney |
Viggo
Mortenson Eastern Promises never nominated prev: 4,5,6,6,9,11,23,23 |
Emile
Hirsch Into the Wild never nominated prev: 5,7,7,8,8,13,--,-- |
Johnny
Depp Sweeney Todd 2 noms/ 0 wins prev: 3,1,2,7,6,6,8,8 |
Wins:
GG, LAFCA, NYFCC, CHICAGO Noms: OFCS, SAG, BFCA |
Wins:
NBR, DC, SF Noms: OFCS, SAG, GG, BFCA |
Wins:
-- Noms: OFCS, SAG, GG, BFCA |
Wins:
-- Noms: SAG, OFCS, BFCA |
Wins:
GG Noms:BFCA |
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08
James McAvoy Atonement prev: 9,4,5,2,3,2,4,4
GG Nom 09 Denzel Washington American Gangster prev: 7,6,3,4,5,4,6,5 GG nom 10 Matthieu Amalric prev: 10,9,13,17,24,18,22,--,14 11 Josh Brolin No Country For Old Men prev: 15,15,17,22, --, 24,--,-- 12 Tommy Lee Jones In the Valley of Elah 2 noms / 1 win prev: 11, 11,8,5,2,1,3,12 13 Phillip Seymour Hoffman Before The Devil Knows You're Dead 1 nom/ 1 win prev: 13,13,9,9,11,--,--,- 14 Tom Hanks Charlie Wilson's War 5 noms / 2 wins prev: 12,12,11,11,7,12,11,9 GG Nom 15 Phillip Seymour HoffmanThe Savages prev: 16,16,10,10,12,7,7,6 SPIRIT Nom 16 John Cusack Grace is Gone never nominated) prev: 14,14,12,12,10,8,13, 14 17 Russell Crowe3:10 to Yuma 17,17,15,18,--,--,--,-- 18 Brad Pitt Assassination of Jesse James prev: 18,18,21,16,15,9,18,18 19 Christian Bale 3:10 to Yuma prev: 19,19,16,19,--,22,--,--, 20 Benicio Del Toro Things We Lost in the Fire (1 win) prev: 20,20,19,14,19, * |
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| 6 |
7 |
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| Ryan
Gosling Lars and Real Girl (1 nom) prev: 6,8,14,13,17,--,--,15 |
Frank
Langella |
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Wins:
-- Noms: SAG, GG, BFCA |
Wins:
BOSTON Noms: OFCS, SPIRIT |
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previous
predictions |
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Jan:
Clooney, Day-Lewis, Depp, Hirsch, Mortenson 09/16/07 Significant changes 07/14/07 Halfway mark adjustment revamp: Tommy Lee Jones instead of Denzel Washington. 06/29/07 I wasn't super confident about this predicted list when I first posted it but three months later, I don't wanna change it. I'm sticking with my year in advance predictions for now. A possibly wise but anonymous reader warns me that I should start considering Crowe's American Gangster role as supporting. On account of the previously mentioned official Oscar ruling* I told y'all about that states that two people of the same genitalia cannot possibly both be leads even if the story is about both of them (see: Collateral, Notes on a Scandal, Brokeback Mountain, etc... Ignore films made before the ruling like Thelma & Louise, The Dresser, Midnight Cowboy, Sleuth, The Turning Point, Terms of Endearment). But
FOR NOW I'm being stubborn and hoping that the sheer magnitude of
the combined stardom of Crowe and Washington (that's a lot of alpha
male star right there) will wake Oscar voters up to the fact that
two penises in one room does not automatically indicate that one is
smaller and subservient** to the other. I'm just saying.
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