Oscar Actress Nominees 2007

OSCAR RACE 2007
commentary by Nathaniel R

days until OSCAR NIGHT

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Final NOMINATION Predictions 4/5 I saw Laura Linney coming (how could they watch that movie and not love her?) but I didn't see Angelina Jolie getting the boot
Final WINNER prediction I'm guesing Cotillard rallies her troops at the end for a photo finish
My Preference Julie Christie Away From Her
Readers Choice Marion Cotillard won for channeling Edith Piaf (full results) in La Vie En Rose
My Personal Ballot 3/5 with Christie, Linney and Page on my list, too

The Oscar Symposium splits votes among Christie, Linney & Cotillard

(Film counts are rough totals. It can be hard to add since IMDB doesn't sort out short films or some TV efforts)

Cate Blanchett The Golden Age	Julie Christie Away From Her	Marion Cotillard La Vie En Rose	Laura Linney The Savages	Ellen Page Juno

4,803 Films 5th nom / 1 win	38 Films 4th nom / 1 win	33 Films 1st nomination!	28 Films 3rd nomination	12 Films 1st nomination!
Other Awards: None Release: Oct 12th Box Office: $16 Role: A reprisal of her star making role as Elizabeth, the Virgin Queen	Other Awards: Critics Awards, SAG, GG (Drama), NBR, BFCA Release: May 4th Box Office:$4 Role: Fiona, a woman suffering from early onset Alzheimers	Other Awards: BAFTA, Critics Awards, GG (Musical or Comedy) Release: June 8th Box Office: $10 Role: Edith Piaf, the über famous French diva, singer and addict	Other Awards: None Release: Nov 28th Box Office: $4 Role: Wendy Savage, a playwright putting her father in a nursing home	Other Awards: Critics Awards Release: Dec 5th Box Office: $113 Role: Juno McGuff, a pregnant highschooler, giving her baby up for adoption
How'd They Get Nominated?
38% She's Cate Blanchett. A default ballot filler now 20% I'm Not There kept her on the tongue when this film failed 18% Performance. It's as big as the gowns. 11% Title character and the entire film lives to bow down to her 10% Role + Sentiment. A return to when they first discovered her 3% Red Carpet Diva	31% Radiant performance. Alert than not. Heart-breaking to see her fear and fortitude fight 30% Role has primo bait: Mental disease! 29% She's Julie Christie, a missing legend and Pinsent's anguish transfers --We, too, 'never wanted to be away from her' 6% Still hot at 60+ 4% The film's fans are passionate	40% Edith Piaf... and Piaf's legendary voice in particular --pretty damn moving 37% Performance & mimicry. Some people feel she truly captures the legend 11% Oscar + biopic 9% Makeup and costuming successfully age and reduce her --this is the same girl? 2% Red carpet ready --looks nothing like she does in the film	57% Performance. It's her movie: Funny, loveable, sly, justright 18% Fun neurotic role 16% Chemistry with Hoffman --she can always sell a sibling rapport -memories of You Can Count on Me? 7% The screenplay's awards traction must have helped them decide to watch it 2% Jindabyne, "Speechless", Breach, etcetera	42% Performance. Good at selling off the cuff remarks, peculiar slang and Juno's eventual emotional layers 33% A film people really love thoroughly 10% Playing a title character never hurts 9% Ebert's early endorsement of her BA candidacy 3% Fresh blood for the red carpet 1% Hard Candy?
I Asked Readers Which Film Clip Oscar Should Show?
'a bunch of quick cuts of her barking "Spain!"' anonymous "My bitches were my collars" -brooke 'could they just pick two scenes from I'm Not There. it'd be so much better' arkaan	""I'd like to make love, and then I'd like you to go. Because I need to stay here and if you make it hard for me, I may cry so hard I'll never stop." e-dot "don't they remember vietnam" js "you're really persistent" jim "what an ugly baby" brodie	"Où est la Montre de Marcel ?! Marcel? Marcel!!" e dot 'talking to the reporter on the beach about love' sam	'taking the red pillow from the old lady' sam 'the 9/11 aide' john	"well, it was great to talk to you Su Chin" js "I'm a planet" whip-smart "Women Now" joe "i don't really know what kind of girl I am" -it's the whole movie anonymous
Should Win / Will Win
Should Win: the aged British beauty Julie Christie, who last won this category in the 60s for the mod zeitgest darling known as, well, Darling. Her performance in Away From Her is a thing of delicacy and grace. Will Win: It'll be close and Christie might still hold her lead, but with Juno surging with American moviegoers (and by extension the Academy) I imagine Ellen Page could be pulling a lot of undecideds, leaving Marion Cotillard with a just barely winning triumph. Her fanbase isn't voting anywhere else. She's their woman. Maybe I'm voting with my fear because I really want Christie to win, but early leads can cause momentum problems and Oscar is notoriously drawn to biopic and deglam focused performances and Cotillard's got both. Plus she's within the age range of most Best Actress winners. The Academy likes their actresses much younger than their actors --just like Hollywood in general. The only thing really working against her is that she's speaking French. And only Italians win for foreign language performances and only once in a blue moon at that. We'll see. But I think it'll be close.
Who Got Robbed?
With Blanchett default double-dipping and for a film virtually no one enjoyed no less --the worst reviewed lead actress movie since Bette Midler in For the Boys (1991), there are a lot of women who have cause to be frustrated with a wasted spot. The coveted list has only five spots, after all: waste not, want not. Chief among those with room to gripe would be Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart) who did very well in the precursors and Amy Adams (Enchanted) who at least won the public and critics over with her inspired take on Disney princessing. Nicole Kidman (Margot at the Wedding) fell victim to an unlikeable character (that generally only works for male actors. It's a double standard but an obvious and entrenched one). Tang Wei (Lust, Caution) fell victim to being Asian. That's the only explanations I can muster to understand how performances this good get shut out of every single awards race of the year.

BLANCHETT	CHRISTIE	COTILLARD	LINNEY	PAGE
Age: 38 Born in: Melbourne Height: 5' 8"	Age: 66 Born in: India Height: 5'2" She is hinting that Away From Her is her last motion picture. if she wins the Oscar she'll hold the new record for most years between consecutive wins. That record is currently held by Helen Hayes (Sin of Madelon Claudet & Airport).	Age: 32 Born in: Paris Height: 5' 6" Has already won the French equivalent of the Oscar in years past	Age: 44 Born in: New York Height: 5' 7"	Age: 20 Born in: Nova Scotia Height: 5'1" The only nominee from a Best Picture. Doesn't like to get dressed up or styled for photoshoots. So why didn't they put her in pants on that new Vanity Fair cover? It's not like they haven't had one incongruous outfit on the foldouts before