OSCAR RACE 2007

commentary by Nathaniel R

days until OSCAR NIGHT

Key: green (lock) yellow (solid bets) red (longer shots) blue (doubtful but possible)
Best Actress - January 20th Predictions

01/20
<--- Nathaniel's Current Arch Enemy: The lovely and extremely talented Cate Blanchett, Conqueror of Spain, Hollywood, Oscar Bait and the Imaginations of Casting Directors and Awards Bodies Everywhere

I know it's preposterous to leave out Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: the Golden Age) from my final predictions since she hasn't missed a damn thing (not one damn lineup!) for her return to the role that made her famous in a flop film that was almost as hated by critics as the other fall Best Actress punching bag (The Brave One). So please save yourself the trouble of sending me "you are biast [sic]. What are you thinking?" e-mails. They will only make me stronger mwaaa-haa-ha

Q: Why am I being so stubborn?
A: If I didn't take chances with predictions here or there I'd quite possibly fling myself off the Kodak Theater in desperation and despair from the utter monotony of awards season. I NEED surprises. Or at least I need to believe that they're possible. I NEED to believe that each random group of thousands of people (from SAG to BAFTA to the GLOBES) doesn't see things exactly the same way. It's just how my brain ...or at least my heart works.

My brain understands that it's going to be Cate Blanchett for that initially open looking fifth spot but my heart aches for less rewarded women who did more impressive things and in less expected ways and often with less subservient directors and cameramen and costumers. And in better films, too!

So why am I sticking with Laura Linney and not jumping ship to Amy Adams? It's like this: I was risking it with Linney even before Entertainment Weekly went to the same surprise place in their prediction issue, so I'm sticking by her until the end --which is on 01/22 when Blanchett gets nominated.

Dream Chaser
Hey, my wishful thinking paid off when I publicly predicted Pedro Almodovar in 2002 when nobody else did and when I predicted Ed Harris in 2000 when nobody else did. Both times the precursors told a different story. Come on Oscar voters! Come through with the third "Nathaniel Loves You" surprise coup.

Discuss on the blog

1
2
3
4
5
Ellen Page
Juno
never nominated
prev: 1,3,5,4,5,5, -,-
Julie Christie
Away From Her
3 noms/ 1 win
prev: 2,2,3,3,4,2,4,1
Marion Cotillard
La Vie En Rose
never nominated
prev:
3,1,1, 2,2,3,5,7
-
Angelina Jolie
A Mighty Heart

1 nom / 1 win
prev: 4,4,4,7,9,10,12,14
Laura Linney
The Savages
2 noms/ 0 wins
prev: 5,7,2,1,3,4,6,4
Wins: CHICAGO, DC (bt), NYFCO (bt)
Noms: BAFTA, OFCS, SAG,GG, BFCA
Wins: GG, NSFC, NBR, NYFCC, BFCA OFCS, and many more critics
Noms: SAG, BAFTA
Wins: LAFCA, BOSTON, GG, Kansas
Noms: OFCS, SAG, BFCA, BAFTA
Wins: --
Noms: OFCS, SAG,GG, BFCA
Wins: --
Noms: OFCS
This year's new star most likely to be welcomed into Oscar history by starlet-loving voters. Carries her whole film. Makes heavily written dialogue spark.
A threat to win. "Let's revel in the austerity of Julie Christie" fan club has AMPAS members in it... not just TFE readers. Baity role + legendary actor =Gold?
A done deal nomination and a threat to win. Sacred vessel reviews and Capital B Baity role with mimicry, Oscar's favorite skill
Biopic role + accent + Angelina's mega stardom and red carpet glory + Brad Pitt + challenging herself again + respected (if unloved) film = Nomination
Fifth spot?
No precursor love but she's sly inspired fun here and an actors actor too. Is there a late screener surge or did The Savages miss its window?
If This Year is as Surprising as 2003...
08 Keira Knightley Atonement prev: 8,5,6,5,1,1,2,11 GG, BAFTA noms
09 Jodie Foster The Brave One prev: 10,10,12,8,8,6,13 GG nom
10 Helena Bonham-Carter Sweeney Todd prev: 9,9,8,6,6,*,10,8 GG nom

Vote Siphoners -So Little Traction
11
Nikki Blonsky (never nom'ed) Hairspray prev: 11,13,12,15,16,--,--,-- GG NOM, BFCA (young actor nom)
12 Nicole Kidman (2 noms / 1 win) Margot at the Wedding prev: 12,11,11,13,14,9,7,12

13
Tang Wei Lust, Caution prev: 13,12,10,11,--,--,--,--
14 Keri Russell (never nom'ed) Waitress prev: 15,14,13,16,17,--,--,--
15
Anamaria Marinca (never nom'ed) 4 Months 3 Weeks and 2 Days 14,15,-,--,-,-,-,--
16 Ashley Judd (never nominated) Bug prev: 16,18,16,17,18,13, 23, 10
17 Halle Berry (1 nom / 1 win) Things We Lost in the Fire prev: 17,17,17,19,19,7,9,9
18
Naomi Watts (1 nomination) Eastern Promises prev: 18,16,19,18,21,16,19, --
19
Katherine Heigl (never nom'ed) Knocked Up prev: 19,19,14,14,15,12, ---
20
Anne Hathaway (never nominated) Becoming Jane prev: 20, 20,20,20,23,17,24, --
6
7
Cate Blanchett
The Golden Age
3 noms/ 1 win
prev: 7,8,9,8,7,8,3,2
Amy Adams Enchanted
1 nomination
prev: 6,6,7,9,11, --,--,--
Wins: --
Noms: SAG,GG, BFCA, BAFTA
Wins: --
Noms: GG, BFCA
Fifth spot?
She's a default choice (ask Streep how much that helps) and even if the performance is cartoonish, its still the best and only reason to see this dumb film
Fifth spot?
She's in the big family hit and Junebug is not yet a distant memory. But how often do comic fantasy children's movie roles make it with Oscar?

other honors
Do-Yeon Jeon -Secret Sunshine CANNES (not eligible for Oscars in any category outside foreign film --still hasn't been released in the US)
AnnaSophia Robb -The Bridge to Terabithia BFCA (young actor nom)
Dakota Blue Richards-The Golden Compass BFCA (young actor nom)


off the list:

Fonda Georgia Rule prev: 17 * Redgrave Evening prev: 6 * SarandonBernard & Doris prev: 24 * BlethynIntroducing the Dwights prev: 25, 22 * Wood Across the Universe prev: 18,--, --Michelle Pfeiffer (3 noms / 0 wins) I Could Never Be... prev: 25, --Catherine Keener (2 noms / 0 wins) An American Crime prev: 23, 21, 23 Jennifer Connelly (moved to supporting) Reservation Road prev: 15,15, 13, Giovanna Mezzogiornia Love in the Time of Cholera prev: 18,10, 10,11, 17, 20, Reese Witherspoon (1 nom / 1 win) Rendition prev: 21,21,20,14,8,5, Marcia Gay Harden (2 noms / 1 win) Rails & Ties prev: 22,22,22,21, 18, --

moved to 2008:

Julianne Moore (4 noms / 0 wins) Savage Grace prev: 25,25,25, 22, 14, 19 Sigourney Weaver (3 noms / 0 wins) The Girl in the Park prev: 24,24,24,19,13, 15 Uma Thurman (1 nom / 0 wins) In Bloom prev: 23,23,13,20,11,16 JohanssonThe Other Boleyn Girl prev: 20, 21 * Paquin Margaret prev: 16, 18 *
Hunt Then She Found Me prev: 24, 22, 25 * Renée Zellweger Leatherheads (never charted)

DISCUSS THESE UPDATES ON THE BLOG

previous predictions

Jan 9th and 20th: Christie, Cotillard, Jolie, Linney, Page
Dec 15:
Christie, Cotillard, Jolie, Knightley, Page

Dec 1: Christie, Cotillard, Jolie, Linney, Page

Sept, Oct and November: Christie, Cotillard, Knightley, Linney, Page

July: Blanchett, Christie, Cotillard, Foster, Knightley
April: Blanchett, Christie, Foster, Linney, Witherspoon

01/07 I know it's perverse to include a performance in the fifth spot that virtually no one has recognized. But I still have trouble imagining Cate Blanchett swinging enough #1 and #2 placements for a film nobody likes (Elizabeth the Golden Age) when she's already won an Oscar and she'll already be nominated in the other actress category and it wasn't exactly her BIG year (which is when you usually can swing two nominations). But since I don't truly believe in her chances, or those of Keira Knightley (too small a role), or Amy Adams (too Disney), or Jodie Foster ( same problem as Cate) I decided to throw my girl Laura Linney back up into the shortlist. It's not impossible you know. The 2003 actress race proved that a surprise is possible, even TWO surprises. And The Savages keeps getting mentions here and there, even if it's never for Linney (ironically the best thing about the entire film)

12/15 all new commentary below ~ in the meantime, that fifth slot is a true nail biter. If they truly love Atonement it'll probably be Keira but her screentime is so limited. That has to make her vulnerable. They might go with the default name (Blanchett) or the breakout star (Adams) despite the film and role being completely non-Oscary. They still could even go with the strangely neglected (That'd be Laura Linney --her film obviously waited too long for release. I suspect not enough people have seen it). Who do you think is in fifth?

 

Last Year's Race