OSCAR RACE 2007
commentary
by Nathaniel R
days
until OSCAR NIGHT
Key: green (lock) yellow (solid bets) red (longer shots) blue (doubtful but possible)
Best
Actress - January 20th
Predictions |
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I know it's preposterous to leave out Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: the Golden Age) from my final predictions since she hasn't missed a damn thing (not one damn lineup!) for her return to the role that made her famous in a flop film that was almost as hated by critics as the other fall Best Actress punching bag (The Brave One). So please save yourself the trouble of sending me "you are biast [sic]. What are you thinking?" e-mails. They will only make me stronger mwaaa-haa-ha Q:
Why am I being so stubborn? My brain understands that it's going to be Cate Blanchett for that initially open looking fifth spot but my heart aches for less rewarded women who did more impressive things and in less expected ways and often with less subservient directors and cameramen and costumers. And in better films, too! So why am I sticking with Laura Linney and not jumping ship to Amy Adams? It's like this: I was risking it with Linney even before Entertainment Weekly went to the same surprise place in their prediction issue, so I'm sticking by her until the end --which is on 01/22 when Blanchett gets nominated. Dream
Chaser Discuss on the blog |
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| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
Ellen
Page Juno never nominated prev: 1,3,5,4,5,5, -,- |
Julie
Christie Away From Her 3 noms/ 1 win prev: 2,2,3,3,4,2,4,1 |
Marion
Cotillard La Vie En Rose never nominated prev: 3,1,1, 2,2,3,5,7- |
Angelina
Jolie A Mighty Heart 1 nom / 1 win prev: 4,4,4,7,9,10,12,14 |
Laura
Linney The Savages 2 noms/ 0 wins prev: 5,7,2,1,3,4,6,4 |
| Wins:
CHICAGO, DC (bt), NYFCO (bt) Noms: BAFTA, OFCS, SAG,GG, BFCA |
Wins:
GG, NSFC, NBR, NYFCC, BFCA OFCS, and many more critics Noms: SAG, BAFTA |
Wins:
LAFCA, BOSTON, GG, Kansas Noms: OFCS, SAG, BFCA, BAFTA |
Wins:
-- Noms: OFCS, SAG,GG, BFCA |
Wins:
-- Noms: OFCS |
| This
year's new star most likely to be welcomed into Oscar history by starlet-loving
voters. Carries her whole film. Makes heavily written dialogue
spark. |
A
threat to win. "Let's revel in the austerity of Julie Christie"
fan club has AMPAS members in it... not just TFE readers. Baity role
+ legendary actor =Gold? |
A
done deal nomination and a threat to win. Sacred vessel reviews and
Capital B Baity role with mimicry, Oscar's favorite skill |
Biopic
role + accent + Angelina's mega stardom and red carpet glory + Brad
Pitt + challenging herself again + respected (if unloved) film = Nomination |
Fifth
spot? No precursor love but she's sly inspired fun here and an actors actor too. Is there a late screener surge or did The Savages miss its window? |
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If
This Year is as Surprising as 2003... 08 Keira Knightley Atonement prev: 8,5,6,5,1,1,2,11 GG, BAFTA noms 09 Jodie Foster The Brave One prev: 10,10,12,8,8,6,13 GG nom 10 Helena Bonham-Carter Sweeney Todd prev: 9,9,8,6,6,*,10,8 GG nom Vote Siphoners -So Little Traction 11 Nikki Blonsky (never nom'ed) Hairspray prev: 11,13,12,15,16,--,--,-- GG NOM, BFCA (young actor nom) 12 Nicole Kidman (2 noms / 1 win) Margot at the Wedding prev: 12,11,11,13,14,9,7,12 13 Tang Wei Lust, Caution prev: 13,12,10,11,--,--,--,-- 14 Keri Russell (never nom'ed) Waitress prev: 15,14,13,16,17,--,--,-- 15 Anamaria Marinca (never nom'ed) 4 Months 3 Weeks and 2 Days 14,15,-,--,-,-,-,-- 16 Ashley Judd (never nominated) Bug prev: 16,18,16,17,18,13, 23, 10 17 Halle Berry (1 nom / 1 win) Things We Lost in the Fire prev: 17,17,17,19,19,7,9,9 18 Naomi Watts (1 nomination) Eastern Promises prev: 18,16,19,18,21,16,19, -- 19 Katherine Heigl (never nom'ed) Knocked Up prev: 19,19,14,14,15,12, --- 20 Anne Hathaway (never nominated) Becoming Jane prev: 20, 20,20,20,23,17,24, -- |
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6 |
7 |
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Cate
Blanchett The Golden Age 3 noms/ 1 win prev: 7,8,9,8,7,8,3,2 |
Amy
Adams Enchanted 1 nomination prev: 6,6,7,9,11, --,--,-- |
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| Wins:
-- Noms: SAG,GG, BFCA, BAFTA |
Wins:
-- Noms: GG, BFCA |
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Fifth
spot? She's a default choice (ask Streep how much that helps) and even if the performance is cartoonish, its still the best and only reason to see this dumb film |
Fifth
spot? She's in the big family hit and Junebug is not yet a distant memory. But how often do comic fantasy children's movie roles make it with Oscar? |
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other
honors DISCUSS THESE UPDATES ON THE BLOG |
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previous
predictions |
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Jan
9th and 20th: Christie, Cotillard, Jolie, Linney,
Page 01/07 I know it's perverse to include a performance in the fifth spot that virtually no one has recognized. But I still have trouble imagining Cate Blanchett swinging enough #1 and #2 placements for a film nobody likes (Elizabeth the Golden Age) when she's already won an Oscar and she'll already be nominated in the other actress category and it wasn't exactly her BIG year (which is when you usually can swing two nominations). But since I don't truly believe in her chances, or those of Keira Knightley (too small a role), or Amy Adams (too Disney), or Jodie Foster ( same problem as Cate) I decided to throw my girl Laura Linney back up into the shortlist. It's not impossible you know. The 2003 actress race proved that a surprise is possible, even TWO surprises. And The Savages keeps getting mentions here and there, even if it's never for Linney (ironically the best thing about the entire film) 12/15 all new commentary below ~ in the meantime, that fifth slot is a true nail biter. If they truly love Atonement it'll probably be Keira but her screentime is so limited. That has to make her vulnerable. They might go with the default name (Blanchett) or the breakout star (Adams) despite the film and role being completely non-Oscary. They still could even go with the strangely neglected (That'd be Laura Linney --her film obviously waited too long for release. I suspect not enough people have seen it). Who do you think is in fifth? |
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