OSCAR RACE 2007

commentary by Nathaniel R

approximately
days until OSCAR NIGHT!

List of Leading Actresses This Year
NAME Film
Oscar history
Directed by Who (Oscar nominated performances they've directed)
Status of Film

Please keep in mind: Many of the roles mentioned could also go supporting. The lines are ever blurred these days and you never know how adaptations or editing choices will size a role

PREDICTION CONTEST


 

DREW BARRYMORE Lucky You
never nominated
Directed by Curtis Hanson (winner: Kim Basinger, LA Confidential)
She's from a long line of Hollywood royalty. She's been famous for nearly her entire life and is well liked. And still nothing? Might be taking a backseat to Bana in this one though as the girlfriend to his gambler
completed

MISCHA BARTON Closing the Ring
never nominated
Directed by Richard Attenborough (winner: Debra Winger, Shadowlands, Robert Downey Jr, Chaplin, Denzel Washington, Cry Freedom, winner: Ben Kingsley, Gandhi)
This is one of those senior framed young historical love stories. Mischa is the young version of Shirley Maclaine in a story about a solider searching for the owner of a ring.
completed

HALLE BERRY Things We Lost in the Fire OR Tulia
1 nomination / 1 win
TWLIF: Directed by Susanne Bier (none)
T: Directed by Carl Franklin (none)
Sometimes it can be difficult to be nominated after winning on your first (see also: Gwyneth Paltrow) but this is a heavy drama from Danish director Bier who generally gets fine performances from her actors. Berry plays a grieving woman whose husband has died (which, come to think of it is also describes her winning role in Monsters Ball). Will Bier's skill with actors transfer to an American film? To Berry? In the second picture which hasn't started filming yet, she plays a lawyer on a racially charged case. Billy Bob Thornton reunites with her onscreen.
TWLIF: post-production
T: announced. filming starts next month

JULIETTE BINOCHE Dan in Real Life
2 nominations / 1 win
Directed by Peter Hedges (nominee: Patricia Clarkson, Pieces of April)
Binoche costars with Steve Carell. Not sure if it's a co-lead or a larger supporting role.
post-production

CATE BLANCHETT The Golden Age: Elizabeth II OR I'm Not There
3 nominations / 1 win
TGA:E2: Directed by Shekhar Kapur (nominee: Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth)
INT: Directed by Todd Haynes (nominee: Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven)
The hardworking star returns to the role of Elizabeth that first brought her Academy and box office attention a decade ago. Seems like a no-brainer for a nomination but then you stop to think: how many people are nominated again for reprising their roles? Her performance as Bob Dylan in the Todd Haynes experimental biopic I'm Not There already has fans among those who've seen it. But several other actors also play Dylan in the film so she could easily go supporting. Even if it's the lead role that sems likely --nobody ever competes against themselves anymore. They just opt for category fraud.
both: post-production


BRENDA BLETHYN Clubland
2 nominations / 0 wins
Directed by Cherie Nowlan (none)
We know that AMPAS voters enjoy her work whether its brilliant (Secrets & Lies) or overcooked (Little Voice) so the question is really: will this small comedy about a man who fears that his overbearing comedian mother (Blethyn) will ruin his engagement find an audience?
completed


NICOLE BLONSKY
Hairspray
never nominated
Directed by Adam Shankman (none)
The role of social activist and plus size firecracker Tracey Turnblad made Ricki Lake a star in the 80s and won Marissa Winokur the TONy in the 00s. Can it still be an awards magnet or will this be pure fluff and/or a critical target
post-production


HELENA BONHAM-CARTER Sweeney Todd
1 nomination / 0 wins
Directed by Tim Burton (winner: Martin Landau, Ed Wood)
The role of Mrs. Lovett, a lovesick amoral pieshop owner has been musical awards bait in the past for beloved stars like Angela Lansbury and divas like Patti Lupone. But that was on the stage. Will
the magic transfer to the movies? AMPAS voters have passed Bonham-Carter over before for terrific work (Howards End, Fight Club). Will they notice her in this very high profile role in a December release? Will this role get demoted to supporting because AMPAS is getting so weird about "co-leads"
filming

JULIE CHRISTIE Away From Her
3 nominations / 1 win
Directed by Sarah Polley (none)
This highly respected 60s superstar was nominated not so very long ago for a film barely anyone saw (Afterglow, 1997). This film is small but the role itself is baity. Will this Alzheimer patient snag her enough raves to draw their attention and enough votes for the shortlist?
completed

JENNIFER CONNELLY Reservation Road
1 nomination / 1 win
Directed by Terry George (nominees: Don Cheadle and Sophie Okonedo, Hotel Rwanda)
This film is about two families who become emotionally entangled after a deadly hit and run accident. The four principals are Mark Ruffalo, Joaquin Phoenix,Mira Sorvino and Connelly so... like Closer, We Don't Live Here Anymore or 21 Grams you'll have to take your guesses as to who is promoted to lead and who is demoted to supporting.
post-production

MARION COTILLARD La Vie En Rose aka La Mome
never nominated
Directed by Olivier Dahan (none)
We know that the Academy loves a convincing biopic performance and she is already winning typical biopic kudos for channeling Edith Piaf. But foreign stars have a much easier time getting nominated if they're already legends (Deneuve, Depardieu) or very well known (Cruz). We shall see.
completed


PENELOPE CRUZ Manolete OR Elegy
1 nomination / 0 wins
M: Directed by Menno Meyjes (none)
E: Directed by Isabel Coixet (none)
Hot off of her Volver triumph Cruz has a lot of projects lined up. She's the co-star in two romantic dramas: Manolete is a biopic (Adrien Brody in the title role) and in Elegy from the director of My Life Without Me (which was a showcase for Sarah Polley's acting a few years back) she's the object of Ben Kingsley's sexual obsession
M: post-production
E: pre-production

CLAIRE DANES Evening
never nominated
Directed by Lajos Koltai (none)
In female ensemble pieces like Evening you never really know who will go supporting and lead (see also: The Hours) and it usually has to do with who wins the most raves for their work or whether they have another performance in the running in another category. Vanessa Redgrave plays a woman on her deathbed remembering her youth (when she looked like Danes) either one or both of them could be considered leads --it will depend on a lot of factors.
post-production

MARIANNE FAITHFUL Irina Palm
never nominated
Directed by Sam Garbarski (none)
She plays a 50something widow who, desperate for cash, takes a job as a hostess as a seedy shop. The Academy loves a prostitute but they probably have their limits.
completed

DAKOTA FANNING Hounddog
never nominated
Directed by Deborah Kampmeier (none)
This Southern Gothic was not so well received at Sundance. Conventional wisdom has it that this was an engineered move to gain Dakota Fanning raves for her acting. She plays an Elvis fan and rape victim. Not sure why she needed this role to prove anything: she's already the most successful and acclaimed of current child star.
completed

VERA FARMIGA Never Forever OR In Tranzit
never nominated
NF: Directed by Gina Kim (none)
IT: Directed by Tom Roberts (none)
The Never Forever performance has already been greeted with what is, by now, the typical critical response to her work ("amazing!"). She plays a wife whose marriage is unraveling due to fertility issues in this indie drama. In Tranzit is a post WWII drama about a female run Soviet prison. Farmiga co-stars with Thomas Kretschmann (who you'll surely remember as the Nazi who helped Adrien Brody in the last scenes of The Pianist) I'm unsure on distribution issues but her star is definitely rising. Her first nomination should come within this decade.
both: completed

JANE FONDA Georgia Rule
7 nominations / 2 wins
Directed by Garry Marshall (nominee: Julia Roberts, Pretty Woman)
This is roughly an On Golden Pond style setup. Three generations together for a summer. Fonda is "Georgia" the grandmother. Apparently what she says goes. Lohan is her unruly granddaughter and Felicity Huffman is the harried mom inbetween. No telling (yet) who'll be going lead/support. But if it's strong tearjerker there could be Oscar play. Particular for the legendary Jane Fonda. Who, if it were up to me, woulda never left the screen in the first place.


JODIE FOSTER The Brave One
4 nominations / 2 wins
Directed by Neil Jordan (nominees: Stephen Rea and Jaye Davison, The Crying Game and Julianne Moore, The End of the Affair)
Stars don't often get nominated for action films. But then Foster, a two time Oscar winner by the age of 30, is a special case. Since she's determined to only appear in actiony genre pics like Panic Room, Flight Plan and Inside Man maybe AMPAS will have to make an exception to get her back in the nominee pool?
post-production

 

ROMOLA GARAI Atonement
never nominated
Directed by Joe Wright (Keira Knightly, Pride & Prejudice)
She's been on the rise for a while appearing in many pictures. Will "Briony" the prime plot mover in Atonement's narrative be the breakout role she's been looking for? Still, depending on filmmaking and marketing choices, could be a supporting role
completed

ANNE HATHAWAY Becoming Jane
never nominated
Directed by Julian Jarrold (none)
For two straight years this rising star has been dutifully working red carpets and smiling in support of films and co-stars but she herself remains emptyhanded and unthanked. Will a biopic role change that? She plays romantically inclined writer Jane Austen. Oscar voters love biopics but then... this is a speculative bio of sorts about a pre-fame Austen. She wasn't exactly tragic. That lessens the bait of it but it is still a famous writer role.
completed

KATHERINE HEIGL Knocked Up
never nominated
Directed by Judd Apatow (none)
Grey's Anatomy's Izzy has been testing the cinematic waters and if Knocked Up is close to as successful as its predecessor (its from the creators of The 40 Year Old Virgin), she'll probably bolt for the cinema. It's probably not an Oscary thing BUT when romantic comedies are huge they sometimes find true (awards) love.
completed

HELEN HUNT Then She Found Me
1 nomination / 1 win
Directed by Helen Hunt (none)
As Good As It Gets (ahem)'s Oscar winner wrote, directed, and starred [Barbra Streisand is seething!] in this indie which THINKFILM (who managed a nomination for Ryan Gosling this past Oscar season) will be releasing. It's about a schoolteacher suffering through one personal crisis after another while starting a new relationship. When it rains it pours...
completed

SCARLETT JOHANSSON The Nanny Diaries OR The Other Boleyn Girl
never nominated
ND: Directed by Berman and Pulcini (none)
TOBG: Directed by Justin Chadwick (none)
Ms Ubiquitous 2006 is taking it easy in 2007 with only a couple of major films. The first is this adaptation of the best seller in which she plays a nanny struggling to survive her evil employer (Laura Linney) ---can this be a breakout hit like Devil Wears Prada? Is ScarJo going to end up like Cameron Diaz: lots of Golden Globe and audience love and never any Academy stamp of approval? Her other picture is a period piece on a currently hot topic --the characters and romantic/political drama are also focal points in Showtimes new series: The Tudors. Natalie Portman is Anne. Scarlett is Mary. I'm guessing it's a two lead film. Which means one of them will be downgraded to supporting since this is the way of things now (*sigh*) Place your bets.
ND: completed
TOBG: post-production

ANGELINA JOLIE A Mighty Heart OR The Changeling
1 nomination/ 1 win
AMH: Directed by Michael Winterbottom (none)
TC: Directed by Clint Eastwood (several)
She plays the wife of slain journalist Daniel Pearl in this true story film who travels to Pakistan when he goes missing. The Academy loves it when actors play real people (see the past several winners) so it's good on paper but then didn't Beyond Borders? But paper doesn't always translate. Michael Winterbottom is directing though which is probably a good sign for quality if not Oscar attention. Also: How does one imagine the Academy feels about the Globe trotting attention grabbing altruism of the Jolie-Pitts. Everyone seems to have an opinion. Wouldn't AMPAS members have them as well?
AMH: post-production
TC: announced (fast-tracked at Universal. begins production sometimes this year: fast enough?)

NORAH JONES My Blueberry Nights
never nominated
Directed by Wong Kar Wai (none)
One of the world's most adored filmmakers is making his first english language effort and he cast this singer in the lead role even though she's not an actress. That's pretty gutsy but he usually knows what he's doing: see anything in his filmography
post-production


ASHLEY JUDD Bug
never nominated
Directed by William Friedkin (nominees: Jason Miller, Linda Blair, Ellen Burstyn in The Exorcist. winner: Gene Hackman, The French Connection)
She wins immediate points for de-glamming and for challenging herself as a poor wife hiding from her excon husband and losing her grip on sanity. But what will the public, the critics, and Hollywood itself think of the strange uncomfortable theatrics of Bug? Could go either way but
the source material is riveting. Even so: not a slam dunk bait thing even if she gets great notices. AMPAS needs extra convincing when a film is strange or of the genre persuasion.
completed

CATHERINE KEENER An American Crime
2 nominations / 0 wins
Directed by Tommy O'Haver (none)
Buzz on this true life crime film was mixed at Sundance but it's certainly a departure for Keener. She plays a mother who tortures her daughter. Doesn't sound like AMPAS fare but then, Keener has been know to get nominations for unbaity things like an unsympathetic über bitch in the mind bender Being John Malkovich or an often silent very low key role in Capote.
completed


NICOLE KIDMAN Margot at the Wedding OR The Golden Compass
2 nominations / 1 win
MATW: Directed by Noah Baumbach (none)
TGC: Directed by Chris Weitz (none)
Baumbach helped his actors win huge acclaim for his last film (The Squid and the Whale) though none of them were Oscar nominated for their troubles. Could his new film about a woman attending her sisters wedding with her teen son in tow, return Kidman to Oscar glory? She isn't exactly known for talky drama but, judging on Baumbach's previous efforts the role is probably meaty enough for a nomination IF people like the movie. Kidman's profile will also be bolstered by two genre films with 2006's it boy Daniel Craig: the scifi horror remake The Invasion and the fantasy epic The Golden Compass. Her role in the latter is a great one. It's definitely supporting in the book. But you never know with movie adaptations…
MW: completed
Invasion & TGC: post-production

KEIRA KNIGHTLEY Atonement OR Silk
1 nomination / 0 wins
A: Directed by Joe Wright (Keira Knightly, Pride & Prejudice)
S: Directed by François Girard (none)
Her first nomination came from a period literary adaptation Pride & Prejudice directed by Joe Wright. Can they repeat that trick with Atonement? It's based on the very fine Ian McEwan novel. She'll also have ablockbuster profile booster from Pirates and in another costume drama Silk she'll play a wife whose husband is having an affair in Japan (depending on the screenplays and choices made either role could be "supporting" to).
Atonement: completed
Silk: completed

 

L-Z
Laura Linney through Catherine Zeta-Jones

 




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