2007 EARLY BIRD OSCAR PREVIEW/PREDIX
by
Nathaniel R
pg1 (Columbia through Newline) / pg 2 (Paramount through Warner Bros)
pg 3 (current schedule) / pg 4 (Oscar Predictions)
I’ve been starting this annual way-too-early feature with a warning “Don’t Try This At Home” in years past but this year I broke that advice with an Oscar contest that 100+ of you entered to predict the Best Actress race long before anybody should be trying to. It was my small way of showing just how difficult (and foolish -shut up!) it is to try and suss these things out before films are completed or screened.
It was a sneaky way of showing: look how hard this --so as to garner your goodwill in the hopes that you'll marvel at my mad skillz for the things I get right whilst forgetting/ignoring the many things I get wrong. This is the ideal way to react to the Film Experience Apil Fools Party.
A party is just what this should be. I try to enjoy myself, mixing my predictions with a few wild guesses, a thumbs up for an occassional 'sure thing' (that did not serve me well with Dreamgirls last year) and an occassional rejection of the Oscar chances of something everyone else is certain about (that did serve me well last year with Flags of Our Fathers) Long story short: I do respectably well each year. But it's all such a crapshoot that you'll never know until it happens which of my guesses are the correct ones and which won't pay off. So just enjoy the speculation with a large block of salt ...and party hat on.
The Studio Rundown
Release dates are highly volatile and fluid, corporate funding and contracts are less so. So it's by distributing studios that we (over)analyze. This will be coming to you piecemeal so feel free to comment as we go . I have opted not to include films that have not yet started shooting, animated films (their own insular category page) and documentaries.
COLUMBIA / SONY / SONY PICTURES CLASSICS
This conglomerates Oscar performance is never quite as strong as it looks like it’ll be on paper. 2003 and 2004 were disappointments with only a handful of nominations but 2005 was kinder: Their intended behemoth Memoirs of a Geisha only nabbed technical awards but paired with the unexpected strength of Capote, things were rosy. Last year? Not so much. Prestige projects All the Kings Men, Running with Scissors, and Marie Antoinette and blockbusters like The DaVinci Code failed to light significant Oscar fires. Pursuit of Happyness and Volver received lead acting nominations, salvaging their year ... at least in terms of the Kodak theater hoopla.
MVP guesstimate
Youth Without Youth Francis Ford Coppola's first film in ten years. Takes place prior to World War II and involves a Professor and a "cataclysmic event". Buno Ganz and Tim Roth star. The Hot Button shared the rumor that it was 'excellent but difficult' --still tinkering in post-production[TBA]
The Other Boleyn Girl Justin Chadwick directs young A listers Natalie Portman and Scarlet Johansson as they vie for the King's affections. The same story is playing out (albeit in subplot form) on Showtime in The Tudors this spring. [Dec]
other possibilities
The Children of Huang Shi Roger Spottiswoode (The Sixth Day ) Jonathan Rhys Meyers and Radha Mitchell attempt to save a Chiense Orphanage as the Japanes invade in 1937. Crouching Tigers Michelle Yeoh and Chow Yun Fat are reunited in the supporting cast. Spottiswoode has a pretty spotty (sorry) filmography but you never know...[Dec]
Spider-Man 3 Sam Raimi takes us on our third swinging good time with Spidey & Mary Jane . The first two garnered a total of five nominations and 1 win in technical categories [May]
Reign Over Me Mike Binder (The Upside of Anger) directs Don Cheadle and Adam Sandler in this tale of grief and recovery. It alreayd has a few fans but it's a looooooong time until awards season [Mar]
Across the Universe Julie Taymor (Frida, Titus) brings her visual flair to a Beatles inspired musical. There's post-production haggling over the final cut already. My question is this: If you hire someone with an obviously idiosyncratic personal vision...don't you just let them do their thing. If you don't want their personal thing --why hire them? [September]
And When Did You Last See Your Father? Anand Tucker (Shopgirl, Hilary & Jackie) directs Colin Firth and Jim Broadbent in this father/son drama [TBA]
Jindabyne Ray Lawrence (Lantana) directs Gabriel Byrne and Laura Linney in this acclaimed Australian drama based on the Raymond Carver short story that we also saw dramatized in Robert Altman's Short Cuts [April]
The Jane Austen Book Club Writer/Producer Robin Swicord directs her first feature about...well, the title explains it. With Maria Bello, Hugh Dancy, Emily Blunt, Nancy Travis, Marc Blucas and more[TBA]DREAMWORKS SKG
Dreamworks has had a strange erratic journey since its creation as a studio. They're mostly turning distribution over to other companies so we'll cover the films they're only producing under other studio headings. This year they're basically up for spots in the animated race.
FOCUS FEATURES
Focus (which began life as USA Films and is technically part of Universal -next page) had a very solid Oscar run for some years and threatened to become dominant in the Aughts like Miramax was in the 90s. But they missed the big race in 2004, were denied the top prize they so richly deserved in 2005 which was probably deflating. Last year their lineup was small and nothing caught the public or Oscar's fancy. Let's pretend that they were in mourning and that they'll come back strong this year.
MVP guesstimate
Atonement Joe Wright (Pride & Prejudice) follows up his surprising debut success by reteaming with Keira Knightley for another literary period piece. The tone is much different this time but the material is very strong. Good luck to the fine cast. Could be huge with Oscar... [Dec]
Reservation Road Terry George (Hotel Rwanda) directs Oscar nominee Joaquin Phoenix, Oscar winners Jennifer Connelly & Mira Sorvino and Oscar shunned Mark Ruffalo in this drama about two couples dealing with the aftermath of a tragic accident. It sounds potentially baity but even if it's great I wonder how long this peopple-brought-together-and-ripped-apart-by-tragic-accident thing will remain in vogue for filmmakers. [Nov]
other possibilities
Evening Famed DP Lajos Koltai directs his second feature about a dying woman recalling her life. With a who's who of important actresses including Vanessa Redgrave, Meryl Streep, Toni Collette, Claire Danes, Natasha Richardson, Glenn Close [June]
Talk to Me Kasi Lemmons (Eve's Bayou) directs Don Cheadle in a biopic of Petey Greene, a DC radio personality in 1960s D.C. [July]
Lust, Caution Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain) directs Asian superstar Tony Leung Chiu-Wai and the ever gorgeous Joan Chen in this Shanghai set WW II era spy thriller [Sept]
Eastern Promises Controversial auteur David Cronenberg (A Historyof Violence) reunites with Viggo Mortenson for his latest. That, all by itself, is enough to get me in the theater. Naomi Watts comes along for the thrill ride this time [Sept]
FOX/FOX SEARCHLIGHT
2oth Century Fox and more importantly (for Oscar purposes) Fox Searchlight had a terrific year in 2006. The Russell Crowe effort (A Good Year) was a rare flop for that Oscar-regular but during awards season this company achieved rather spectacular results for their films. It wasn’t just that they had a solid crop of films in Notes on a Scandal, The Last King of Scotland, Little Miss Sunshine, Thank You For Smoking, and The Devil Wears Prada --it was their highly visible commitment to those same films, giving each a relentless push. It's not so much that you can buy Oscar nominations as that a film has to be SEEN to get the nominations. The harder a studio pushes the more likely the voters are to discover the movie in question. Fox has been one of the more fascinating studios to watch in my years of Oscar jabbering. They’ve been behind all sorts of daring movies like thirteen, Fight Club, I Heart Huckabees, Sideways and Moulin Rouge while also attempting regular old Oscar bait like Walk the Line and Kinsey. Unless I'm forgetting a major fumble they seem to back their movies in smart ways most every time. If I were a filmmaker I'd want them to purchase my film for distribution rather than some of the others who are more likely to chop them up or stick them on a shelf somewhere.
MVP guesstimate
The Savages Tamara Jenkins (Slums of Beverly Hills) may have a sleeper hit on her hands if Sundance enthusiasm carries over. The company that kept on pushing that yellow van (Little Miss Sunshine) seems like a good fit for what looks like a very smart and well performed dramedy. This one is about a sister (The Lovely Laura Linney) and brother (Phillip Seymour Hoffman) and their dying father (Phillip Boscoe). [Sept]
Other Possibilities
Margaret Kenneth Lonergan finally follows up his stellar You Can Count on Me debut with this drama about a bus accident witnessed by a subsequently troubled young woman (Anna Paquin). It was delayed from last year which might not mean anything but there’s still no buzz one way or the other. And still no release date. That's the more troubling part. At the very least it’ll be good to see Paquin with a challenging role again. [TBA]
The Darjeeling Limited Wes Anderson (The Life Aquatic) brings his latest brand oddity. This one is about three brothers losing a parent and travelling to India. As per usual its also got the Christmas slot [Dec]
Sunshine Danny Boyle (28 Days Later) directs a great looking sci-fi drama with cool cast but it has been pushed way back. Last year's sci-fi drama held long after completion was Children of Men. So is it an indication that it’s quality or that they don’t know how to sell it and want to table it for now --both seemed true last year with Universal and CoM right? [Sept]
Mr Magorium’s Wonder Emporium Zach Helm (Stranger Than Fiction) puts Natalie Portman and Dustin Hoffman in a magical toy shop. [Nov]
Waitress Adrienne Shelley (R.I.P.) directs this romantic dramedy starring Keri Russell and Captain Tightpants (aka Nathan Fillion) It looks cute --could be a minor hit --but not Oscary. [May]
LIONS GATE
Lions Gate’s soul true claim to Oscar fame is Crash from two years back. They delayed Bug from last year. It's now scheduled to open in May. Reports from Cannes were mostly kind last year but it’s still hard to picture the Academy embracing this kind of psychological horror, unless critics rally and Ashley Judd’s deglamming soul unravelling turn demands attention. More on Bug. Lions Gate is mostly involved with horror movies or other genres that aren’t intended for gold statues. Still, there are a couple of other potential areas of interest for awards-chasers. There’s Marco Kreuzpainter’s (Summer Storm) Trade with Kevin Kline discovering the flesh peddling world in Mexico [Aug] .
Most Oscar hopes probably ride with semi-Oscar magnet Russell Crowe. He’s starring in the western 3:10 to Yuma which is directed by James Mangold (Walk the Line) and which also stars Christian Bale. Bale is arguably the most widely acclaimed current star that still has no Oscar nomination to show for his repeatedly great acting. [Oct]
MIRAMAX
The one time powerhouse no longer has the Weinsteins but last year they had the Oscar goods in The Queen. Can they have another solid year? Their films this year include the sorta fictionalized biopic Becoming Jane (with Anne Hathaway as Jane Austen) in August, Scott Franks crime drama The Lookout (now playing) and Gone Baby Gone with Ben Affleck in the director’s chair. Like Mystic River it’s set in Boston from a book by Dennis Lehane. Featuring Morgan Freeman, Casey Affleck and Michelle Monaghan. It arrives in October. They’re also partnered with Paramount on P.T. Anderson’s There Will Be Blood (next page).
NEWLINE / PICTUREHOUSE
New Line had a few good Oscar years with Lord of the Rings but they’ve arguably struggled with other pictures Oscar campaigns. Their handling of Little Children was downright odd last year (though they did manage three nominations so it wasn’t too detrimental) . They usually keep a small Oscarbait slate this year they’re potentially busting out all over.
MVP Guesstimate
Rendition Gavin Hood (Tsotsi) directs Reese Witherspoon, Jake Gyllenhaal and Meryl Streep in this contemporary political thriller about a wife whose Middle Eastern husband disappears and the government who may know what’s happening (more) [Nov]
Other Possibilities
His Dark Materials: The Golden Compass Chris Weitz (About a Boy) directs this epic adaptation of the first installment of Phillip Pullman’s thematically dense and exciting fantasy series. A young girl is torn between two powerful adults, Nicole Kidman and Daniel Craig and embarks on a dangerous and magical adventure to save her friends life [Dec]
Love in the Time of Cholera Mike Newell (Four Weddings and a Funeral) directs this adaptation of the classic novel about a love triangle in turn of the century South America. Exciting cast: Liev Schreiber, John Leguizamo, Laura Elena Harring, Javier Bardem, Catalina Sandino Moreno, and Benjamin Bratt. The female lead is Giovanna Mezzogiorno. [Nov]
Be Kind Rewind Michel Gondry (The Science of Sleep) turns his blessedly warped eye onto a man who accidentally erases the contents of his friend video store. They attempt to recreate the films. Could be imaginative and one-of-a-kind funny. Could be a mess. With Jack Black, Mos Def, Mia Farrow and Danny Glover [TBA]
Hairspray Fine choreographer but questionable movie director Adam Shankman helms the transfer of the hit Broadway musical which was itself an adaptation of John Waters 1988 cult classic. With John Travolta, Queen Latifah and Michelle Pfeiffer [Jul]
Mr. Woodcock a comedy with former Oscarnominees Billy Bob Thornton and Susan Sarandon [Sept]Picturehouse, New Line's speciality division, had a breakout year in 2006. In addition to Oscar ignored but interesting films like Notorious Bettie Page, Prairie Home Companion and Fur, they made a terrific awards run and box office success out of Pan’s Labyrinth. Can they grow even bigger in the Academy’s heart? This year they have the costume drama love triangle Silk with Keira Knightley and Michael Pitt [Aug]. And then not one but three biopics: Sergi Bodrov’s Mongol a Genghis Khan bio, El Cantante with Jennifer Lopez and Marc Anthony, and perhaps the most likely to succeed at building Oscar fever, the Edith Piaf biopic La Vie En Rose (or La Mome) starring Marion Cotillard [Jun]
