2006
EARLY BIRD (FOOLS) OSCAR PREDICTIONS
continued from page one
by
Nathaniel R
pg1 (Columbia through Newline) / pg 2 (Paramount through Warner Bros) /
pg 3 (current schedule) / pg 4 (index of predictions)
PARAMOUNT
Paramount hasn't scaled the Oscar mountain all that well recently, but their new specialty division Paramount Vantage perspired heavily to push Babel up that Oscar hill despite divisive reactions and troubled box office. So, IF they have something they believe will tickle Oscar's collective fancy this year, expect the same blood sweat and tears campaigning. They have a lot to choose from this year so it's easy to picture them dominating the Oscar race.
MVP Guesstimate
There Will Be Blood Paul Thomas Anderson (Magnolia) returns after a five year hiatus with a period family epic based on Upton Sinclair’s Oil. Daniel Day-Lewis will be a real contender unless something goes horribly awry. Paul Dano, fresh off the success of Little Miss Sunshine plays his son [Dec]
Other Possibilities
Things We Lost in the Fire Susanne Bier directs her first English language drama starring Oscar winners Halle Berry and Benicio Del Toro. Can she help guide them back to the Kodak? [Oct]
Sweeney Todd --Paramount, Warner Bros, & Dreamworks are combined on this one-- Tim Burton adapts Stephen Sondheim’s legendary gothic musical –some would say opera—for the screen. He’s already defied conventional casting going younger than the characters are usually portrayed and with non-singers. Huge hit or major misfire? Only time will tell. This one more than any other seems like it's an either or prospect. [Dec]
Margot at the Wedding Noah Baumbach (The Squid and the Whale) directs Nicole Kidman as the title character in Margot at the Wedding. Ciarin Hands and the directors own wife Jennifer Jason Leigh are in the presumably talky & well written drama [Oct]
Stop Loss Kimberly Peirce (Boys Dont Cry) guides a young who's who of Hollywood through this drama about soldiers home from the Iraq war [TBA]
Beowulf Oscar winner Robert Zemeckis (The Polar Express) adapts the epic poem into a digitially enhanced live action adventure--always pushing the f/x envelope that one.
A Mighty Heart Acclaimed prolific director Michael Winterbottom guides Angelina Jolie as the wife of a slain journalist in this true story. [Jun]
Into the Wild Sean Penn (The Pledge) directs Emile Hirsch in the adaptation of this nonfiction bestseller about a young man who moves to the Alaskan wilderness. Fine supporting cast includes Catherine Keener, William Hurt, Marcia Gay Harden and Vince Vaughn. [Sept]
Son of Rambow: A Home Movie Garth Jennings might have a true crowd pleaser on his hands. This is comedy about two young boys, a video camera and a pirated copy of Rambo was widely loved at Sundance. So, if you trust festival buzz... [Jul]
Stardust Matthew Vaughn (Layer Cake) takes on Neil Gaiman's funny creative fantasy novel lending it an all star cast and abundant CGI (more on the film) [Aug]
No Country for Old Men The Coen Brothers (Fargo) return with an adaptation of Cormac McCarthy’s novel of the same name. The Coen Bros haven’t had a true crowd pleaser or critical hit in a while. Can they regain their mojo? With Woody Harrelson, James Brolin, Tommy Lee Jones, Kelly Macdonald and Javier Bardem [TBA]
The Transformers Michael Bay (Pearl Harbor) spends gazillions of dollars rebooting the former animated cartoon into a live action action franchise. Will it work? Why is it in an Oscar preview you ask? Well he’s directed six movies before this one and they’ve garnered 9 Oscar nominations between them. ‘tis true.
Black Snake Moan Craig Brewer (Hustle & Flow) directs Samuel L Jackson and Christina Ricci in this heated controversial duet. Now playing. Probably too out there (not to mention too early) for awards buzz come fall. [Mar]
Zodiac David Fincher (Panic Room) returns. This one is already out. And the tepid greeting insures that Oscar won’t notice its finely tuned tensions [Mar]
Year of the Dog Mike White (The Good Girl) directs Molly Shannon as a dog lover in mourning for a lost friend. With Peter Sarsgaard [Apr]TOUCHSTONE/DISNEY/PIXAR
Not often a big player. But also shouldn't be ignored... They weren't anywhere near the big 8 categories last year but they swung multiple nominations for Apocalypto, Cars, The Prestige and Dead Man's Chest despite that. You can always expect them in the animated feature race but their live action entries that could find a nomination here or there include Underdog [Aug] which is partially animated. But so far the animation branch hasn't declared any of the live action/animated hybrids as eligible so it will need to have an original song to be in the Oscar mix. The same thing can be said for Enchanted [Nov] which stars Amy Adams as a cartoon character transported from her animated kingdom to flesh and blood New York. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End completes the behemoth franchise trilogy in May. The other two were multiple Oscar nominees so expect the same technical love to greet this one.
UNIVERSAL
Universal can manage a good nomination showing even if the film's don't completely catch on with Oscar (The Good Shepherd, Black Dahlia, Children of Men, United 93 last year) Can they go the whole distance this year?
MVP Guesstimate
Charlie Wilsons War Oscar winner Mike Nichols (Closer) directs Oscar winner Tom Hanks as a Texas Congressman with dealings in Afghanistan that have long reaching effects. Julia Roberts, Emily Blunt, Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Amy Adams lend support [Dec]
The Golden Age Shekhar Kapur (Four Feathers) returns to the scene of his original Oscar hit Elizabeth with a sequel (for some time it has stupidly carried the subtitle Elizabeth II...which implies another queen entirely) Anyway, this one deals with Elizabeth’s relationship with Sir Walter Raleigh (Clive Owen) as well as her rival Mary Queen of Scots (Samantha Morton). Abbie Cornish and Geoffrey Rush have supporting roles [Oct]
Other Possibilities
American Gangster Ridley Scott (Gladiator) makes his third film with Russell Crowe. This one is about a drug lord (Denzel Washington) in Harlem in the 1970s who smuggles his product in the coffins of soldiers killed in Vietnam. The detective on his case is played by Crowe. For Ridley & Russell’s sake they hope it’s better than A Good Year. For Russell & Denzel’s sake they hope it’s better than Virtuosity [Nov]
Georgia Rule Garry Marshall (Pretty Woman) had the unenviable task of trying to reign Lindsay Lohan in for this three generation dramedy about formidable women. Jane Fonda is the Oscar draw here. Not that this will be Oscary but if this type of movie (family tearjerker) is a huge hit, Oscar sometimes will award a star they love with a nomination. And they love Fonda. Or at least they did when she was making films.[May]
Leatherheads George Clooney directs himself and She Who Must Not Be Named in a romantic comedy set in the world of 1920s football. [Dec]
The Bourne Ultimatum Paul Greengrass (United 93) follows up his first Oscar nomination by returning to the Bourne franchise as Matt Damon’s guide through tense rough and tumble action. Oscar doesn’t really do action films, though, at least beyond sound and very occasionally editing [Aug]
Knocked Up Katharine Heigl gets an unexpected bun in her oven in this romantic comedy which some believe will be a huge hit [Jun]
Southland Tales Writer/Director Richard Kelly (Donnie Darko) set this film in the future of 2008. If they don't release it soon it won't be sci-fi futuristic anymore. The weirdest cast of the year deal with an LA heatwave: Sarah Michelle Gellar, The Rock, Miranda Richardson, Mandy Moore, Bai Ling, Nora Dunn, Janeane Garofalo, Justin Timberlanke, Christopher Lambert, and Sean Wiliam Scott [TBA]
We Own The Night James Gray (The Yards) gets Joaquin Phoenix again for this drama about a nightclub manager and the Russian mafia. With Mark Wahlberg, Robert Duvall and Eva Mendes [TBA]
Breach Chris Cooper nabbed some good reviews as a double agent but the film will be a very distant memory by awards season [Mar]WARNER BROS / WARNER INDIE
This huge company has been a major force the last few years with films like Good Night and Good Luck,Million Dollar Baby, The Departed, Letters From Iwo Jima making it into the final five showdown and some of them winning, too. It looks like they have another shot at the gold this year. So many of these sound possible. Maybe they’ll get more than one shortlister?
MVP Guesstimate
Michael Clayton Screenwriter Tony Gilroy (The Bourne series) directs George Clooney as a lawyer facing dark days in his career. Will we see him, Tilda Swinton or Tom Wilkinson (who has what sounds like a juicy supporting role) in the acting races? [Sept]
In the Valley of Elah Paul Haggis (Crash) he of perpetual Oscar chasing and on the nose screenwriting is back with this tale of a career officer (Tommy Lee Jones) investigating his son who has gone AWOL after a tour of duty in Iraq. The cast includes Charlize Theron, Susan Sarandon, Josh Brolin, and Johnathan Tucker [Sept]
Other Possibilities
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford Andrew Dominick (Chopper) guides Brad Pitt (the assassinated) and Casey Affleck (the coward) in this western drama. For whatever reason and despite the delays, I still have high hopes. [TBA]
The Brave One Neil Jordan (Breakfast on Pluto) is hit and miss with Oscar. But this time he’s directing Jodie Foster in her preferred genre (the action drama) and I have a good feeling. But what do I know? [Sept]
August Rush Kirsten Sheridan (Jim’s daughter, co-writer of In America) is in charge of this drama with fairy tale elements. In demand child star Freddie Highmore is the title fellow. [Oct]
The Invasion Oliver Hirschbeigel got himself a prime cast for this Invasion of the Body Snatchers inspired effort. Daniel Craig and Nicole Kidman headline. [Aug]
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix David Yates (2007) is the latest director-for-hire here. I’d say don’t expect any Oscar nominations on a fifth installment but technical Oscar noms have been weirdly erratic with these films so they could still happen [July]
P.S., I Love You Richard LaGravenese (Freedom Writers) is a brave man. It’s his second film with Hilary Swank in one year. Brave or crazy? Gerard Butler plays her dead husband who is helping her move on after his death in this dramedy [TBA]
Clubland Brenda Blethyn is a comedienne. Her son is afraid to introduce his fiance. [TBA]
300 Zach Snyder adapted Frank Miller's graphic novel into a huge hit. Oscar ignored Sin City even in the technicals. Will they ignore something this successful? [Mar]
The Bucket List Rob Reiner (Rumor Has It) does a buddy comedy about two terminally ill men. Since those men are Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman one can expect asses in seats. [TBA]
Fred Claus David Dobkin (Wedding Crashers) helms this comedy about Santa’s (Paul Giamatti) brother (Vince Vaughn) If it’s enormously popular maybe a random Globe nod? [Nov]
I Am Legend Francis Lawrence (Constantine) pits Will Smith against vampires of some sort in this apocalyptic sci-fi. Technicals are possible if the movie is better than average or the year is weak [Dec]
Ocean's Thirteen Steven Soderbergh hauls out the usual cocky mega famous suspects [June]
In the Land of Women Jon Kasdan gets Adam Brody into female trouble with lotsa women including Meg Ryan [Apr]
WEINSTEIN COMPANY
The former Miramaxers haven't managed any real Oscar coup in their first two years of their new company. The most obvious problem (aside from the films themselves) is they seem stuck in their 90s mindset. Harvey Weinstein helped to create the one week qualifier distribution phenomenon and the end of December glut but he apparently hasn’t noticed that it doesn’t work so well for the studios anymore. The days of endless old and new media Oscar coverage and shortened awards seasons have thankfully wounded that tactic of withholding films from eager eyes. If last year is any indication October is the new December.
So anyway quickly, they have some minorly buzzed indies like Teeth and Dedication, a potential Devil Wears Prada style hit in The Nanny Diaries (replace personal assistants with nannies to the rich, replace Anne Hathaway with Scarlett Johansson and Meryl Streep with Laura Linney) if they’re lucky [Apr]. Wong Kar Wai’s first English language feature My Blueberry Nights with an eclectic interesting cast headed by Norah Jones (?) on a road trip [TBA] Grace is Gone about a Iraq war widower who takes his daughters on a road trip won raves for John Cusack at Sundance. [TBA] But the big dog in terms of Oscar might just be I’m Not There from genius auteur Todd Haynes (Far From Heaven). I say “might” because no matter how brilliant it could be, that doesn’t ensure Oscar love since his films can fall on the intellectually satisfying side. Oscar (generally) prefers big feely to big thinky. Early buzz has Cate Blanchett giving the breakout performance of the many movie stars who are playing Bob Dylan in this unusual bio. [Sept]
MINORS or SEEKING DISTRIBUTION
Films which have uncertain distribution plans or will likely get small releases but could have Oscar nomination elements.
Away From Her Sarah Polley directs the great Julie Christie in this alzheimer’s drama [IFC]
Lions for Lambs Robert Redford and Tom Cruise and Meryl Streep all in the same movie which sounds baity. IMDB synopsis "Injuries sustained by two Army ranger behind enemy lines in Afghanistan set off a sequence of events involving a congressman (Cruise), a journalist (Streep) and a professor (Redford)." But it's only recently started filming and the distributor also worries me --not strong at the Oscar game [MGM/UA]
Never Forever Vera Farmiga and her husband have trouble getting pregnant in this drama for which Vera received raves at Sundance [Prime]
In Tranzit Vera Farmiga again in a WW II Soviet prison camp [Peace Arch]
Hounddog The controversial Dakota Fanning moviethat played at Sundance [No Distributor]
Irina Palm Marianne Faithful takes a job at a seedy shop gets a new moniker in this film screening at festivals recently [No Distributor]
An American Crime Tommy O’Haver’s sundance entry based on a real crime stars Catherine Keener as an abusive mother and Ellen Page as her daughter [First Look]
Savage Grace Tom Kalin (Swoon) directs the great Julianne Moore in the first role that’s sounded worthy of her specific talents in a good while. She plays a doomed socialite who is too invested in her son and too distant from her husband. [No Distributor]
Doris and Bernard.Susan Sarandon and Ralph Fiennes co-star as Doris Duke and her gay butler [No Distributor]
Goya's Ghost is directed by former Oscar winner Milos Forman and stars Natalie Portman and Javier Bardem in a period epic.[Samuel Goldwyn]
Spinning Into Butter. Sarah Jessica Parker stars in the adaptation of the racially provocative play [Cinema Vault]
Fay Grim Hal Hartley gets Parker Posey to reprise her Henry Fool role [Magnolia]
Snow Cake Sigourney Weaver is autistic. Alan Rickman is her acting partner [IFC]
Cassandra's Dream Woody Allen's latest. With Ewan McGregor and Colin Farrell [No Distributor]
Nothing is Private Alan Ball's latest based on the novel Towelhead [No Distributor]Current Schedule For Releases
extremely subject to change
