01/20 Feeling more and more nervous about that Burton nomination... so I dropped him for the exact DGA list. That doesn't usually happen so I'll probably regret it. Nick thinks we'll see a Mike Leigh Vera Drake level surprise and he thinks it'll be David Fincher (Zodiac). Heaven, that'd be.

01/09 The DGA list looks like a possible 5/5 transfer but maybe Tim Burton can hang on. He's been shut out for so so long.

12/17 The top five seems to be settling but Anderson (still never nominated -- egg on AMPAS face) is still a threat as are Oscar frequent auteurs Scott and Lumet fighting for that lone director spot since their films don't seem as strong as their individual candidacy.

Other Honors
Tamara Jenkins THE SAVAGES prev: 18,21, 24,24,24,17 SPIRIT NOM
Gus Van Sant PARANOID PARK (not eligible for Oscar) SPIRIT NOM
Julie Delpy 2 DAYS IN PARIS SPIRIT First Feature
Craig Zobel GREAT WALL OF SOUND SPIRIT First Feature
Scott Frank THE LOOKOUT SPIRIT First Feature
Jeffrey Blitz ROCKET SCIENCE SPIRIT First Feature
Rajnesh Domalpalli VANAJA SPIRIT First Feature

fell off the charts:
Boyle SUNSHINE (16) Winterbottom A MIGHTY HEART (25) Peirce STOP LOSS ( 25, 19 ) Jordan THE BRAVE ONE (10,14) Bier THINGS WE LOST IN THE FIRE prev rank: 21,21, 22Gavin Hood RENDITION
never nominated prev rank: 22,3,3Noah Baumbach MARGOT AT THE WEDDING prev rank: 16,16,20 Shekhar Kapur THE GOLDEN AGE never nominated prev: 21,19,6,5Terry George RESERVATION ROAD
never nominated prev: 22,18,17,10 Robert Redford LIONS FOR LAMBS 1 win prev: 23,23,23,12, Francis Ford Coppola YOUTH WITHOUT YOUTH prev: 24,24,19,15,20,8, William Friedkin BUG prev: 25,25,25,25,--,18, Chris Weitz HIS DARK MATERIALS: THE GOLDEN COMPASS prev: 23,19,18,17,13, 15, John Carney ONCE prev: 21,22,--,--,--,-- Paul Haggis IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH prev: 22,23,15,5,9, --

Previous Predictions:
DEC: Anderson, Burton, Coen Bros, Penn, Wright
NOV: Anderson, Coen Bros, Lumet, Penn, Wright
OCT: Anderson, Coen Bros, Penn, Scott, Wright
SEPT: Anderson, Coen Bros, Haynes, Haggis, Wright
JULY: Anderson, Coen Bros, Haynes, Hood, Wright
APRIL: Anderson, Haynes, Hood, Kapur, Wright

09/16/07 The strangest thing: despite significant hosannas to Todd Haynes and I’m Not There I’m losing faith in its Oscar prospects. Could be the festival crowd’s brave spirit or Haynes regular position as a critical darling (which I wholeheartedly endorse mind you) ...but I’m not quite letting go of him yet. The rest of the crowd is significantly shuffled around. I’d always had high hopes for The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford which people kept telling me I was crazy to have (it figured prominently into my 2006 predictions before the many delays and editing changes) and now it’s getting rave responses. I’ve boosted its director way up but the tricky part will still be campaigning and weathering a possibly unsupportive studio and possibly unsupportive audiences, whatever may come.

07/14/07 Ah wishful thinking. It’s the only explanation for leaving both Todd Haynes and P.T. Anderson (The two best new American auteurs of the 90s) in the mix but I couldn’t decide which one to let go of. So yes... wishful thinking. But allow me another couple of months of that. It’s really shameful that the best young auteurs in the world almost always have to wait for the Academy to catch up to their critical status. Sigh

There's plenty of theories as to why but AMPAS is more comfortable with above average directors than auteur geniuses. It's always been true. In the charts below you'll see both kinds

04/02/07 I've completely lost my mind. I'm predicting a lineup with all first time directing nominees. Wheee.

discuss on the blog