He's 13 1/2 inches tall. He wears only a sword. He's shiny. Everybody wants him. This is a new weekly Sunday series --my attempt to keep Oscar discussion corralled in the weekends ...at least until we're truly in the season.

---

Please note: The Oscar Pages won't be updated as planned today and there's no graphics either. I'm shifting to a new computer and there is much program disarray. Next week.

Please note 2: This article is now out of date --decision have been made and coded in red below

The fate of early Best Actress Oscar surges lies in the hands of Marion Cotillard, Laura Linney, Cate Blanchett and Helena Bonham-Carter. Or rather: the various Actress Oscar campaigns will know what hit them when the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (AKA The Golden Globes), announce their nominees on December 13th. La Vie En Rose, The Savages, I'm Not There and Sweeney Todd are wildcards of a sort.

La Vie En Rose and I'm Not There
It's easy to picture both the Edith Piaf bio and the Bob Dylan investigation flip-flopping between the "musical or comedy" category and the "drama" category (if it were up to me Cotillard and Blanchett would both be categorized as drama since they aren't fully "musical" performances --neither sings-- and aren't comedic either). The Piaf film won't be eligible for best picture in either category (due to Globe rules preventing foreign language films from placing there) but the placement category matters (CATEGORY: MUSICAL/COMEDY for La Vie / DRAMA for I'm Not There). Now that Cate Blanchett is reportedly going lead (UPDATE: PROBABLY NOT. BUT THINGS CHANGE) we have two arguable frontrunners adept with Oscars unarguable favorite skill (mimicry). This skill is such a default Oscar grabber that the annual acting competitions grow ever duller --just look to the biopics. End of story. It's my hope that they'll cancel each other out in the eventual race for the coveted statue (clearing the way for a better performance to win) but their Globe categorizations will cause serious ripples.

The Savages
Dramedies are tricky HFPA beasts. This could conceivably go either way and which way it goes matters (CATEGORY: MUSICAL/COMEDY). Laura Linney, one of the most consistently excellent players in all of Hollywood is in danger of going the way of Joan Allen, Sigourney Weaver, Michelle Pfeiffer, Glenn Close and more before her, a bridesmaid but never Oscar's bride --always a victim of someone's elses momentary heat or career "time". But hear this: Linney might be the only one who can take down either of the biopic star turns. It'll all depend on the campaign. Linney's team needs to use the "due" and "career award" angles if they hope to overcome Oscar's near total subservience to biopics.

Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
It would be impossible to mistake a Sondheim adaptation as anything other than a musical, but where will Helena campaign, lead or supporting? Early studio buzz indicated "lead" in keeping with the tradition of Mrs. Lovett being a role as huge and narrative driving as the title characters. But as the movie nears release we hear reports that the role has been whittled down to make the focus unmistakably on the demon barber. Mrs. Lovett is still probably a lead but given Oscar's flexibility with these categorizations there could be last minute shuffling. Adding to the confusion: even if the pie maker is a lead campaigning as a supporting player the Globes will likely ignore that. Catherine Zeta-Jones's Velma Kelly was deemed lead at the Globes for Chicago (she lost) but eventually stopped the show in supporting at the Oscars (she won)

For discussion purposes --and to show how deep this competition runs-- let's remove Blanchett, Cotillard Linney and Bonham-Carter entirely and see what the Golden Globe categories would look like without the four category puzzlers.

DRAMA
Blanchett –Elizabeth The Golden Age
Christie –Away From Her
Jolie –A Mighty Heart
Knightley –Atonement
and who?
Former Globe nominee Ashley Judd for Bug? Starpower with Jodie Foster in The Brave One? The terrific debut of Wei Tang in Lust, Caution (a film that's eligible for the Foreign Globe even if its been ruled out of the Oscar race), Anne Hathaway in Becoming Jane (a plausible Globe curveball? They do love an odd surprise), Halle Berry in Things We Lost in the Fire?

COMEDY (OR MUSICAL)
Adams –Enchanted
Blonsky –Hairspray
Heigl –Knocked Up
Page -Juno
Russell –Waitress

Now categorized this way:
COTILLARD La Vie En Rose
LINNEY The Savages
KIDMAN Margot at the Wedding

Comedy is where it gets interesting. Nicole Kidman, a Globe favorite could aslo show up here for Margot at the Wedding or could be deemed "drama" (NOPE: COMEDY). All five women above seem likely but for the problem of the category fluidity. Linney, Blanchett, Cotillard, and Bonham-Carter will hog 80% of this category if they're placed right here… and doesn't it seem like they will be? Most of these women, who now seem like typically representative Globe Comedy choices, will end up cut.

I'd love to hear some reasoning from the readers as to what will happen and why. Really dig into this one. The categories are deep.

And for the men, it's far less complicated except that there's far more candidates. There's probably but one category puzzler and that's Phillip Seymour Hoffman in The Savages. But since he's clearly drama for Before the Devil Knows You're Dead my guess is they try for a double nod in the parallel categories, pushing Linney firmly in the Comedy direction. The men's categories (apart from supporting/lead confusion) are clearer but the competition is cloudy. I'm betting that the Globe choices will mean more than usual because of this. In a year when there is precious little by way of "locks" Globe momentum could make all the difference.

My best guess right now...

DRAMA
Clooney –Michael Clayton
Day-Lewis –There Will Be Blood
Hirsch –Into the Wild
Mortenson –Eastern Promises
Washington –American Gangster

The list of alternates is long and competitive. Who is shaking those HFPA hands? Whose performances are they fonder of than we can know? Almaric (Diving Bell), Cheadle (Talk to Me), Pitt & Affleck (Jesse James), Jones & Brolin (No Country for Old Men), Crowe & Bale (3:10 to Yuma), McAvoy (Atonement), Jones (Elah), Hoffman (Before the Devil), Damon (Bourne Ultimatum), Hanks (Charlie Wilsons War), Gyllenhaal (Zodiac), Shannon (Bug) -- the possibilities for Globe surprises are many.

COMEDY (OR MUSICAL)
Depp –Sweeney Todd
Gosling –Lars and the Real Girl
Hansard –Once
Hoffman –The Savages
Rogen –Knocked Up

Or… Depp (Pirates of Caribbean: At World End). Carrel (Dan in Real Life), Travolta (going lead for Hairspray –it could happen @ the Globes -nope: supporting). Who could surprise? The Globes like to do just that.

How much of a shakeup do you think the Globes nominations will be this year? Or are you more concerned with SAG and NBR whims? Impress us with your analytic and prophetic skills in the comments.

 

Discuss on the blog

Previous Naked Gold Men
Song & Dance: Sweeney Todd & Hairspray
Early Birds and Phoenixes
Fear of 1999 Redux
The Supporting Actress Stock Shortage
The Michael Clayton Fix
and How I Prepare for Top Ten Listings

Oscar Predictions
LAST UPDATED ON NOVEMBER 11th

the 8th Annual FiLM BiTCH Awards
this site's own movie awards begin on January 2nd, 2008