He's 13 1/2 inches tall. He wears only a sword. He's shiny. Everybody wants him. This is a new weekly Sunday series --my attempt to keep Oscar discussion corralled in the weekends ...at least until we're truly in the season.

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In the early days of November the vast majority of movie buffs and Oscar freaks view the final two months of the year through rose colored glasses. That’s pleasantly optimistic (we all want new films to be great) but it doesn’t reveal the whole picture. ‘December is king!’ lenses have blind spots though they’re also not entirely blinding. The shiny gold man does prefer late year releases… just not quite as much as people think. He does have a type “fresh, serious, uplifting” but it's a type not a fetish: he doesn’t need it to perform, he can be turned on by other things. If the December glut of “prestige” films is at all disappointing, Oscar will turn his bald shiny head back to gaze fondly at warmer months. He’s done it many times before.

So which filmthings that are mostly written off now, can rise like phoenixes? These filmthings might be crushed by the December heavyweights. But a select few could soar back to prominence if they see a window of opportunity. Especially if…

• The campaign is hardworking or brilliant
• Voters are already partial to this type of achievement
• Top Ten Lists and precursors put some wind beneath their wings

1st Quarter (Jan-Mar)

GREENSCREEN
300 is an interesting test case in the technical categories. Blockbusters aren’t always taken seriously but they have a definite advantage in that they’re impossible to avoid. They have no visibility issues. I personally disliked this film but it’s emblematic of the green screen dominance of event movies. When will Oscar give up the ghost for f/x movies that are, through their near total computer generated imagery, practically animated films? That’s the direction movies are going in but Oscar (so far) generally likes a little more reality mixed with their effects stuff (think the gorgeous location work of the Lord of the Rings films) even for the tech awards. But you never know. Maybe Oscar will feel a special affinity for other naked sword wielding men, even if they are more oiled down than naturally shiny.

PLANET EXPLOITATION
Black Snake Moan and Grindhouse are way too exploitation friendly to light Oscar’s fire but wouldn’t it be a kick to see them get some traction somewhere... anywhere: Planet Terror for Best Comedy or Musical! Ah well not even the Globes are that crazy geeky.

A MAJOR PLAYER?
Breach's backers still plan to push hard for Chris Cooper’s performance but the most important film to keep an eye on from the first quarter is David Fincher’s Zodiac (my review). Oscar is a giant stretch in several ways but it’s not altogether worth shrugging off. For one thing it’s a better crime drama than American Gangster. It’s got a fine ensemble of actors. It’s serious, smart and it’s hard to fault its superb technical elements. Will this film get the Oscar traction it deserves? A Globe Drama nomination could do wonders: Do the right thing HFPA!

2nd Quarter (Apr –Jun)

THIRD TIME CHARM or THREE STRIKES OUT?
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End and Spider-Man 3 are roughly in the same boat this year: final installments of film trilogies (shut up. I don’t believe Spidey 4 is happening. At least not for a good long while), massive hits, both had mostly worn out their critical welcome but continued selling boatloads of tickets, previous installments won Oscar recognition. Will AMPAS go for each franchise a third time? Or will they try to make room for newer achievements in sound and visual shortlists? My hunch is that Spidey is in more danger since, despite it’s #1 hit of the year status it had very loud detractors... even dehard Spider-Man enthusiasts like myself were frustrated by it.

ACTRESS -EXPLOSION
One could conceivably fill the entire best actress category with the spring/early summer women. Ashley Judd’s desperate stand-by-my-man possession in Bug, Angelina Jolie the eye of A Mighty Heart’s hurricane procedural, Julie Christie’s well observed and very moving alzheimer’s victim (Oscar Bait!) in Away From Her, Laura Linney stunning implosion as a guilt ridden wife in Jindabyne, Marion Cotillard’s Edith Piaf imitation in La Vie En Rose, and Keri Russell in Waitress. What a summer huh? I am not a big fan of the later two performances which I found overwrought and underthrought respectively but they have enough well wishers to make it hard to write them off entirely as Globe and/or Oscar hopefuls. That’s six women already and that’s not even counting Molly Shannon’s weirdly flexible gallery of frozen smiles in Year of the Dog… but it would take a miracle to get her into the Globe comedy list even. Maybe the Satellites ;)

“FALLING SLOWLY” FOR ONCE
Once, arguably the most fiercely loved tiny movie of the year, won critics over and its still miniscule audience fell hard. Yet it never took off despite good word of mouth. It would be a wonderful miracle to see it play with Oscar but maybe they can figure out a way to angle for a song nomination even though they might have problems with the “original” technicalities. Its hopes now rest on year end top ten lists (should be a cinch to snag), a smart gold seeking campaign, slowly spreading love for its wonderful soundtrack and a Globe Musical nomination.

3rd Quarter (Jul-Sept)

IF THEY COULD LEARN TO APPRECIATE GENRE FILMS/PERFORMANCES
…they might get a kick out of the incredible job Imelda Staunton does with Dolores Umbridge in Harry Potter or Michelle Pfeiffer’s fearlessly big wicked witch in Stardust. They could also recognize that Danny Boyle’s Sunshine, for all its narrative troubles, has “wow” tech elements. And then there’s the case of The Bourne Ultimatum. Oscar isn’t naturally drawn to action films but you’d think they’d give the critically acclaimed members of this movie family some love from time to time. But, if their treatment of Casino Royale last year and the other Bourne films is any indication, this one gets zero nominations despite capping off a well regarded and popular trilogy.

HAIRSPRAY
Though AMPAS is fond of musicals, I’m not sure this musical comedy will have much luck with them. It’s very likeable but it’s also not particularly awardable. Where would they honor it? Its quality is diffuse rather than tangibly connected to any one element. And the most generally awardable role (Edna Turnblad) is also the one that was performed most divisively (John Travolta).

INBETWEENERS
I don’t have any research to back this up, but I sometimes suspect that July, August and September are the most difficult months to release an Oscar hopeful. July is still blockbuster season, August movies can feel like summer event letdowns or time killers before serious films hit. September movies have lower box office which can unfairly taint great movies. These months are also challenged when it comes to the natural ebb and flow of awards contenders. All contenders go through peaks and valleys of buzz but a September film or performance can't reach a “comeback” point as easily since they might just have hit the stale period of their shelf life right before people start handing out the first trophies.

It’d be a shame if AMPAS voters don’t do some good hard staring at:
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford which has gorgeous tech elements and an accomplished lead performance by Casey Affleck.
Viggo Mortenson in Eastern Promises. He carries the film to any great place it goes.
Lust, Caution by Ang Lee. AMPAS may feel they’ve awarded him enough but this film has two worthy performances from Tony Leung and Tang Wei (not that Oscar notices Asian actors) and unarguably beautiful production elements

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Which early birds are you rooting for?
Or are you still waiting for a movie experience to send you flying?

Discuss on the blog

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