OSCAR RACE 2007
commentary
by Nathaniel R
days
until OSCAR NIGHT
Best Picture
Final WIN Predictions No Country For Old Men holds its early lead with ease
Final NOMINATION Predictions 4/5 correct. Missed Atonement for Into the Wild
My Preference I have never been able to decide between No Country & There Will Be Blood
Readers Choice No Country For Old Men beats There Will Be Blood (full result)
Oscar Symposium -what does this year's collected panel think of these pictures?
My Personal Ballot 2/5 No Country and There Will Be Blood are the only direct matches though Michael Clayton and Atonement are in my top ten listbox office rank from box office mojo / critical rank derived from movie city news top ten list chart
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ATONEMENT (Focus Features) Joe Wright |
JUNO (Fox Searchlight) Jason Reitman |
MICHAEL
CLAYTON (Warner Bros) Tony Gilroy |
NO
COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN (Miramax) Joel & Ethan Coen |
THERE
WILL BE BLOOD (Miramax / Paramount) P.T. Anderson |
release:
Dec 7th running time: 130 min box office rank: #54 / $48 critical rank: #7 TFE top ten list prizes Golden Globe (Drama), BAFTA |
release:
Dec 5th running time: 96 min box office rank: #21 / $125 critical rank: #6 my grade: B prizes BFCA (Comedy) |
release:
Oct 5th running time: 119 min box office rank: #56 / $47 critical rank: #15 TFE top ten list prizes plentiful nominations are its (eternal) reward |
release:
Nov 9th running time: 122 min box office rank: #42 / $61 critical rank: #1 TFE top ten list prizes PGA, NYFCC, NBR, BFCA, SAG and smaller critics orgs |
release:
Dec 26th running time: 158 min box office rank: #82 / $32 critical rank: #2 TFE top ten list prizes NSFC, LAFCA, and smaller critics orgs |
| How'd
They Get Nominated? |
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The
Pre-Ordained Contender Spot
32% Seriously wet with prestige --dripping even, like figures at the fountain. Oscar loves WW II as setting for their BPs and they also love novels. Bonus: Vanessa Redgrave 30% Gorgeous eye candy. Other great- looking films were spilling so much blood... 14% Many months of hype... which also worked against it, arguably 10% the green dress 9% Rising young stars and Oscar's anglophilia 5% Golden Globes 1% Pride & Prejudice |
A
Quad: Indie, Contemporary, Zeitgeist, and Comedy Spot 48% Timing & Type. Media adoration carried it to full term (i.e. release) and an adoring public adopted Plus: wasn't much relief from the heavy dramas elsewhere. 20% Enthusiastic and tireless FYC campaign 12% a cohesive and talented ensemble elevating their material 10% Quotability 5% easy year end wrap up hook: put a knit cap on a year of hit pregnancy movies 4% Roger Ebert 1% Diablo Cody |
Middlebrow
(but with brains) 30% Clooney continues to be the new god of Hollywood, balancing prestige, audience appeal, old school glamour, and honest-to-god talent 30% An old fashioned genre (legal drama) reclaimed from TV 30% Timing --the only movie to solidify a spot before the holiday glut made it a free for all for the other films. 7% Memorable quirks: Swinton's pit stains, Wilkinson's baguettes. 3% Tony Gilroy's ascendance and Bourne franchise heat |
The
Critical Darling 40% Critical support. The early "best of the best" leader 30% Timing and momentum. Emerging as the frontrunner gets you through the prediction-happy precursors with ease (though it doesn't guarantee the ole' Oscar win) 20% "Anton Chigurh" The most popular movie killer in ages, Friendo 10% The Coen Bros. Isn't it time they won the top prize? 5% Highly discussable ending. Keep 'em talking 2% the sound. |
The
Period Piece
32% Daniel Day-Lewis = Event Movie 25% Comparisons to Citizen Kane and Giant right off the bat and the hyperbolic reviews didn't stop gushing 16% Resonant contemporary guts to period material: Oil. Religion. Capitalism. Self-Destruction 13% P.T.A. Welcome! We loved Boogie Nights and Magnolia. Really we did. We voted for them. 7% Heavy technical Oscar branch appeal 5% "I drink your..." 3% Highly discussable ending. Keep 'em talking |
Also
Nominated For... |
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Should
Win / Will Win |
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 Should
Win / Will Win:
History will probably look kindly on a big statue for No
Country For Old Men. I'm personally torn between a win
for that or There Will Be Blood but either
way movie lovers win, don't you think? Which means little
Juno could sneak into the genius-less but enjoyable
space between them and rally for a win. There's a significant voting
block who likes something a tad happier than the apocalyptic death
marches and period nihilism. But...
I'm still guessing it's No Country |
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What
Got Robbed? |
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| This is my favorite Best Picture lineup since... well, since a very very long time. It's the first time in the years I've been doing this that I've genuinely liked all five pictures. I'm already tired of hearing about Juno, though. It's my least favorite --which means it'll win. That's the way it goes statistically. Oscar somehow revolves around me... only in the negative or inverted since. My full top ten list for other Best Picture worthy titles (in the rare years when Oscar only chooses good movies for their lineup, I hate to quibble too much even if they're not my five. And even if they did snub films as great as Lust, Caution and Zodiac in every category...)
Consensus snubbings: The titles most likely too that didn't were probably The Diving Bell and Butterfly which surged too late as a foreign entry when the American critical darlings were also trying for the same late game effect. The French puts it at a natural disadvantage unless it had previously establishes its "critical darling" status. Into the Wild never surged so much as sputtered on occassion forward and back again in a strange now you see it now you don't precursor journey. |
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Statistics
and Noteworthy Trivia |
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| This
is the sixth Ian McEwan novel to make it to the screen. Previous transfers:
The Ploughman's Lunch (Richard Eyre, 1983) The Comfort
of Strangers (Paul Schrader, 1990) The Cement Garden (Andrew
Birkin, 1993), The Innocent (John Schlesinger, 1993 ) and
Enduring Love (Roger Michell, 2004) |
I'm
kind of sick of hearing about Juno so you're probably sick
of reading about it |
The
only Best Picture with multiple acting nods this year. That's not
common * Michael Clayton anagrams (for no reason whatsoever!) "Mythic Ole Canal", "Coachman Yet Ill", "Acclaim the Only", "All Toy Mechanic", "Conceal Thy Mail", "Halcyon Climate", "Tall Coy Machine", "All Icy Omen Chat" and "Thy Local Cinema" |
This
is the second Cormac McCarthy novel to make it to the screen. The
first was All The Pretty Horses (Billy Bob Thornton, 2000).
Hollywood loves him right now and The Road (directed by John
Hillcoat and starring Viggo Mortensen) and Blood Meridien
(directed by Ridley Scott) are on their way soon |
Reports
vary considerably as to how soon but PT Anderson launches away from
Upton Sinclair's book narrative relatively early. So, it's kind of
a wonder that they didn't campaign this as an "original"
given that 'inspired by' is the new MO for "well, it was
based on a novel" category switch shenanigans |
