OSCAR RACE 2007
commentary
by Nathaniel R
days
until OSCAR NIGHT
Key: green (lock) yellow (solid bets) red (tough to say) blue (doubtful but possible)
| Best
Picture Predictions -January
20th |
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| 01/20
I guess I'll stick with the 5 I had. But honestly ... any
combination of the top six that includes No Country makes
just as much sense in one way or another. Possibly
weaker than people think: Juno. It's making
huge actual buzz waves now, but when they were voting it was still
mostly manufactured hype. In other words: did the Academy buy in in
time? |
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1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
NO
COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN (Miramax) dir The Coen Bros NOV prev: 1,1,1,3,6,2,2,-- my top ten list box office rank: #51 |
THERE
WILL BE BLOOD |
MICHAEL
CLAYTON (Warner Bros) dir Tony Gilroy OCT prev: 3,3,3,2,3,5,4,4 my top ten list box office rank: #66 |
INTO
THE WILD |
JUNO (Fox Searchlight) dir Jason Reitman DEC prev: 4,7,8,7,11,18, ur, UR my grade: B box office rank: #31 |
| Wins: NYFCC, NBR, BOSTON, DC, CHICAGO, BFCA Noms: PGA, AFI, DGA (dir), GG, SAG (ens) |
Wins:
NSFC, LAFCA, NYFCO (tie) Noms: DGA, PGA, AFI, GG, BFCA |
Wins:
-- Noms: PGA, AFI, DGA (dir), GG, BFCA |
Wins:
-- Noms: AFI, DGA (dir), BFCA, SAG (ens) |
Wins:
BFCA (c*) Noms: PGA, AFI, GG, BFCA, SPIRIT |
| Yes Terrific movie. Gripping, serious, and exquisitely crafted. A nearly unanimous critical choice for 'BEST' at least until There Will Be Blood opened very very late. It'll be nice to see the Coen Bros back in the mix. But… Too brutal depressing for the win? |
Yes Raves + amazing director who has been gone too long (and who they've yet to embrace in a real way) + great star (Day-Lewis) + potent period drama easily relevant to the here and now (oil. greed, religiousity) But... Do they get Anderson? |
Yes Fine adult drama. Clooney is shaping himself into an Oscar fixture. Warner Bros is good at the Oscar game. Slow and steady but box office is solid But... Has TV dampened the appeal of law dramas? Universal praise so far but raves are fewer. It needs #1 votes |
Yes
/ But Its fans are fiercely devoted. But there's not a lot of them if the box office is any measuring stick. Certain to get #1 spots on ballots but enought of them? This is the type of picture that lives and die by the early precursors. The BFCA was kind. The Globes weren't. And so it mostly went |
Yes Heartfelt and hip crowd pleaser. Also a warm and funny contender in a field of sober sometimes depressing work. But... comedies aren't exactly rare and precious in the marketplace and in the end I'm guessing it's just a shade too young and quirky for the Academy |
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6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
I
THE
DIVING BELL AND BUTTERFLY (Miramax) dir. Julian Schnabel NOV prev: 8,6,12,12,18,--,--,-- my review (B) box office rank: UR |
ATONEMENT |
Others |
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| Wins:
GG (f* & d), NYFCO (tie) Noms: PGA, AFI, DGA, BFCA, SPIRIT |
Wins:
-- Noms: BAFTA, GG, BFCA |
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| Yes Tearjerker. Biopic. Disability drama. They love all three of those things. Added caché from being artistic rather than just sentimental But… It's also a foreign film and the American films haven't been weak |
Yes Strong source material, rising talent (McAvoy, Knightley), quality studio, dripping with prestige and wonderful techs. But... The backlash has started. Probably too hyped and too late in showing up to deliver on months of buzz |
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other
honors falling
off chart |
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previous
predictions |
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JAN
9 & JAN 20: Into the Wild, Juno, Michael Clayton, No Country For
Old Men, There Will Be Blood 01/09
SAG let us know where the actors support
rested (No Country For Old Men
and Into the Wild),
critics organizations have kept alive the hopes of the harsher Southwestern
duo (No Country, There Will Be Blood)
and the DGA having just announced have validated my faith in Michael
Clayton to nab a shortlist spot. Juno's
rising popularity and great box office suggest it's going to be the
big youth broad appeal surprise (seriously, it's been forever since
a high schoolish film was nominated. Was it Breaking Away?)
--though given the hype calling it a surprise is probably truly pushing
it. Taking the biggest hit recently: Atonement which had trouble with the SAG voters and Sweeney Todd which has been bleeding (sorry) support with no clotting in sight. 12/28 Update next week. For now, I've just updated the box office hierarchy and added SAG ensemble. Obviously the rankings must change now. Into the Wild looks all set.Atonement and Sweeney looking a bit shakier 12/16
The critical precursors have rallied behind No Country For Old
Men with dissenters flocking towards Paul Thomas Anderson's There
Will Be Blood (which hasn't done as well with the middlebrow
groups like BFCA and the GLOBES, both of which are closer in temperament
to the Oscar voters than the critical establishment who tend to appreciate
a challenge and a major auteur like Anderson) But I'm betting I'm exactly right about the top eight... just not neccessarily the right order Discuss on the blog
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